Alternatives to Russian Siberia

What other nations had the most chance of taking and controlling Siberia to present day?

Was it a full blown conclusion that Russia would take Siberia? Could Persia, China or any other nations take control of the region?
 
Once you have Russia eliminate their main Tatar rivals like Kazan and Sibir, then Russian expansion is practically inevitable since they're expanding into a vacuum. The only thing that can really stop them is either a China focusing on the northern steppes (surviving Yuan, a Qing with different priorities, even a native Han dynasty insanely successful in the northern steppes?) or the Japanese assuming they aren't isolationist but instead actively colonising the Sea of Okhotsk (that will take a very early POD). But even China or Japan getting anything west of the Ob River is a pretty challenging task. Maybe the Dzunghars are an option too.

The other option is probably about as likely as the above, where you could have a reformed Golden Horde or other Central Asian steppe empire modernise and remain a potent force. And I don't mean what they did with raiding Russia, I mean a rapidly expanding population and economy which if Russia wants to attack them, then the Russians will probably lose hard and won't try again for many years.

Lastly, if there's still no substantial settlement in the region in the late 19th century, you could have Britain or the United States stake a claim to a lot of what's nowadays Chukotka and Kamchatka, maybe by buying Chinese claims (which existed OTL even if China never did a thing with it and eventually ceded it to Russia). A Meiji-esque Japan, assuming it exists, will obviously be interested too and claim the Sea of Okhotsk region as well. Not sure what native states could emerge, although the Sakha/Yakutia might be an option for a viable native state albeit likely a colonial protectorate.
 
Maybe if the Volga Bulgars get wanked they could form a sort of russia but based around the Volga and could expand to the Black sea and the Caucus then it could be them who expands eastwards though them being the prime target for steppe hordes doesn't bode well to their development.
 
You basically have to destroy Russia as early as possible to not have Siberia become Russian.
 
You basically have to destroy Russia as early as possible to not have Siberia become Russian.

Or just not have a united Russia form in the first place.

One of the reasons why Siberia took so long to move into (despite its relative isolation), is that the Steppes are in the way and, honestly, its alot of cold mountains, bogs, and thick forests: not exactly the place that can support large population densities, easily support steppe-type nomads, or make for the first choice of otherwise migrating peoples. Russia went east because it was the open direction and, after Muscovy united the other city-states and bumped up against a powerful Scandinavia, Poland, and Ottoman-backed Crimean Khanate, there wasen't really any better way to expand. Keep Russia fragmented, and I doubt any of its regional principalities are going to focus too much attention east, lest they get taken advantage of in the opening by one of their rivals further West.

But I'd say Crimea or Astrakhan (Or another Volga-based Tartar polity) are your best bet. Persia and China both have the troubles of there just being... alot of wasteland between them between the parts of Siberia that are profitable/productive (Sable fur, early on). Crimea or another southern Tartar nation seem the most likely to be able to modernize and be driven to expand into the raw-resource rich region, due to their connection to the global market via the Ottomans/Black Sea trade.
 
Or just not have a united Russia form in the first place.

One of the reasons why Siberia took so long to move into (despite its relative isolation), is that the Steppes are in the way and, honestly, its alot of cold mountains, bogs, and thick forests: not exactly the place that can support large population densities, easily support steppe-type nomads, or make for the first choice of otherwise migrating peoples. Russia went east because it was the open direction and, after Muscovy united the other city-states and bumped up against a powerful Scandinavia, Poland, and Ottoman-backed Crimean Khanate, there wasen't really any better way to expand. Keep Russia fragmented, and I doubt any of its regional principalities are going to focus too much attention east, lest they get taken advantage of in the opening by one of their rivals further West.

But I'd say Crimea or Astrakhan (Or another Volga-based Tartar polity) are your best bet. Persia and China both have the troubles of there just being... alot of wasteland between them between the parts of Siberia that are profitable/productive (Sable fur, early on). Crimea or another southern Tartar nation seem the most likely to be able to modernize and be driven to expand into the raw-resource rich region, due to their connection to the global market via the Ottomans/Black Sea trade.
True, but that would mean stopping the Mongols wouldn't?"
 
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