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If Prussia lost the Seven Years War, and was left as a rump Brandenburg, with East Prussia to Russia and Silesia to Austria, what would be the fate of the PLC?

Prussia was the one that pushed the partitions in our timeline. Without Prussia, I can't see Austria standing in for the same push, as they only reluctantly went along with it in our timeline. I also can't see Russia allowing the PLC to reform effectively, any more than they did in our timeline.

So what's its fate? Russian troops remained there after the 7YW, and in this situation they will presumably be marching back and forth to East Prussia. Indeed, I can see Russia keeping East Prussia (rather than exchanging it for Courland) entirely for this reason, to keep Poland under the thumb. It's also hard to see how Russia could have more influence over the PLC without annexation than in OTL, but on the other hand, annexation of the whole massive territory would turn all of Europe against St Petersburg.

Could Russia just annex bits at opportune moments? The Duchy of Courland and the Duchy of Samogitia seem to have their own history enough to justify this, but where else?

Could anything else happen?
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