Alternative fates for the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth if Prussia is dismantled

If Prussia lost the Seven Years War, and was left as a rump Brandenburg, with East Prussia to Russia and Silesia to Austria, what would be the fate of the PLC?

Prussia was the one that pushed the partitions in our timeline. Without Prussia, I can't see Austria standing in for the same push, as they only reluctantly went along with it in our timeline. I also can't see Russia allowing the PLC to reform effectively, any more than they did in our timeline.

So what's its fate? Russian troops remained there after the 7YW, and in this situation they will presumably be marching back and forth to East Prussia. Indeed, I can see Russia keeping East Prussia (rather than exchanging it for Courland) entirely for this reason, to keep Poland under the thumb. It's also hard to see how Russia could have more influence over the PLC without annexation than in OTL, but on the other hand, annexation of the whole massive territory would turn all of Europe against St Petersburg.

Could Russia just annex bits at opportune moments? The Duchy of Courland and the Duchy of Samogitia seem to have their own history enough to justify this, but where else?

Could anything else happen?
 
IIRC Russia planned in trading East Prussia for Courland.

I can also see Austria (with French backing) doing some political shenanigans to compromise Russian influence in the Commonwealth, with Russia of course not really liking it. Indeed should Peter III's Anglo-Russian Alliance fly and Britain keep New France you can have a pan-European war during the ARW.
 
Russia was going to annex all or most of the Commonwealth territory sooner or later, Peter the Great detailed their stance on the PLC very clearly - keep them weak, bribe the nobility, influence elections, keep them at gun-point until the conditions clear up. The Russians saw modern day Ukraine and Belarus as their ancestral territory and such.

And it's not like the Commonwealth could try to resist, ever since the Silent Sejm they were reduced to protectorate-tier, and the Polish-Lithuanian idea of "survival through chaos" was just an illusion. Any legitimate objection to Russian western claims would only come from the outside - that being Austria, most likely.

What I could see is this happening with the PLC:

1. Stanislaw August Poniatowski is elected as per OTL. Nobody with a reasonable mind wanted a new Saxon-type king, and both Catherine II and the Familia threw their lot under him, too.

2. Much like OTL, Poniatowski pursues reforms to the dying Commonwealth, which gets the negative attention from both Russia and the reactionary parts of the nobility. You get the Bar Confederation and the Vilnius-Radom Confederations as per OTL, perhaps slightly different because of the different conditions, but the overview is similar.

3. Russia and Catherine II is naturally threatened by the Familia and Poniatowski reforms, they don't want the Commonwealth to be any stronger because it wouldn't be a good buffer anymore. And East Prussia would get cut off, too. But they can't deal with the Poles and Lithuanians too actively, like by annexing some of their territory to give them a lesson, without pissing off Austria.

4. Austria is obviously concerned with Poniatowski, but I imagine they'd be more willing to turn a blind eye because the other option is to have Russia on their border. And nobody wants to have a Russia stretching from Danzig.

5. What you could see is a some sort of 18th century "proxy war" between Austria and Russia, with the latter supporting the Familia and the latter supporting the Vilnius-Radom Confederation.

6. Poniatowski and the Familia are obviously unhappy with their country being turned to shreds, and the civil war with the conservative nobility allows them to begin the TTL equivalent of the Four-Year Sejm. Liberum veto is abolished much like OTL, a constitution is drafted, numerous Enlightenment ideas are put into effect.

7. Keep in mind that this Four-Year Sejm is happening around the same time as the American independence war and the build up to the Great French Revolution (maybe it has happened already, too), so this radicalism comes off as very concerning to both Russia and Austria, who decide that this Commonwealth experiment is no longer tolerable, so they come to the negotiations table. Russia wants it's ancestral lands back, but Austria doesn't want to make Russia too strong, so they decide on a compromise of sorts.

8. Russia decides to take Courland, Semigallia, Lithuania and eastern OTL Ukraine, Austria annexes Galicia, and the rest is turned into a rump Polish state under domination of the both powers. Austria and Russia move in their troops, Familia supporters are crushed, the Sejm is forced to sign the Partition at gunpoint and the Commonwealth is no more.

This is just a base timeline I think is the most likely to happen.
 
I read somewhere that Russia became less enthusiastic about trading East Prussia for Courland over the course of the 7 Years War.

One question is whether Catherine II or Peter III would be in charge in a scenario where Peter III hasn't given up East Prussia.
 
Russian attemps to annex most or all of PLC without Prussia to counterbalance would led to major European war (7 Years War Style). Russia would grow too much in power and would get good position to interfere in Germany. Austria, Saxony, Sweden and Ottomans with support of UK would be more than enough to halt Russian ambitions.
 
I could see an alliance between the Commonwealth and Austria happening. Austria was in many respects a more natural ally for the Commonwealth than Russia. Lets say Poniatowski becomes King and allies with Austria.

With Austria allied and their force backing him up, Russia would face serious resistance if they tried to pre-empt reforms with an invasion, from both Poniatowski's Forces AND Austria.

If Confederations form to stop Reforms, then troops led by Jozef Poniatowski could put down the confederations probably handily. The Man inflicted one of the few defeats the Russians suffered in the Partitions after all, a few disgruntled noblemen shouldn't be a problem.

Then, Austria would have a Strong Ally in the East with which to help dominate Russia/The Balkans. Austria might even grab Croatia and Bosnia Earlier than IOTL with the Help of a Reformed Commonwealth.
 
PLC would be better ally for Austria than Prussia-at least Poland-Lithuania will not be Austrian rival in Germany.
ITTL Poland is in simillar situation that Spain in early 18th century-weakened, shadow of former power, and just like France was only neighbour able to absorb Spain, Russia is only neighbour which could annex whole PLC. Perspective of France joining with Spain led to War of Spanish Succession, which was literally France vs. rest of Europe. Russia attempting to get all of PLC would also face simillar reaction of European powers.
Poniatowski is less likely to get the throne IOTL. To maitain Status Quo between Austria, Russia and Saxony the best solution would be next Wettin monarch. After all they ruled Poland from over 60 years.
 
Russian attemps to annex most or all of PLC without Prussia to counterbalance would led to major European war (7 Years War Style). Russia would grow too much in power and would get good position to interfere in Germany. Austria, Saxony, Sweden and Ottomans with support of UK would be more than enough to halt Russian ambitions.

Is there a possibility of Russia dividing up the PLC into a series of smaller puppet states? That way she could eat them up bit by bit later.
 
Is there a possibility of Russia dividing up the PLC into a series of smaller puppet states? That way she could eat them up bit by bit later.

Not without Austria getting involved to Stem Russian Expansion. . .

It Could be Argued that IOTL the Partitions only Worked because all 3 Powers Agreed to Partition. Without Prussia as a Balance it is more likely for Austria to War with Russia over the Issue.
 
Not without Austria getting involved to Stem Russian Expansion. . .

It Could be Argued that IOTL the Partitions only Worked because all 3 Powers Agreed to Partition. Without Prussia as a Balance it is more likely for Austria to War with Russia over the Issue.

Which Austria would lose, right?
 
Which Austria would lose, right?

Not necessarily.

Austria tends to get a bad rep in modern Historiography based on nationalism, but if you actually look at their record at this period, you'll find that they have come out on top more often than not. Especially when compared with Russia, which has a worse win/loss record. Granted most of those are various Balkan or Italian Wars where the wins come from, but they could beat Russia at this point. . .

This isn't the era of Industrial War, Russia can't mobilize millions of men like they could in the 20th Century, they barely Mustered 200,000 Men during the Entire 7 years War, which even Austria mobilized more of.

There's also the fact that the Russian Artillery Corps at this point was the Worst of Any European Great Power.
 
And Austria would not be alone-by annexing PLC Russia will almost double its population. That would be enormous disturbance to balance of power.
It will not be Russia vs. Austria, it will be Russia vs. Europe.
 
Not necessarily.

Austria tends to get a bad rep in modern Historiography based on nationalism, but if you actually look at their record at this period, you'll find that they have come out on top more often than not. Especially when compared with Russia, which has a worse win/loss record. Granted most of those are various Balkan or Italian Wars where the wins come from, but they could beat Russia at this point. . .

This isn't the era of Industrial War, Russia can't mobilize millions of men like they could in the 20th Century, they barely Mustered 200,000 Men during the Entire 7 years War, which even Austria mobilized more of.

There's also the fact that the Russian Artillery Corps at this point was the Worst of Any European Great Power.

The Russians certainly performed a hell of a lot better during the Seven Years War and the Napoleonic wars than Austria did.
 
The Russians certainly performed a hell of a lot better during the Seven Years War and the Napoleonic wars than Austria did.

Based on which evidence? - Russia came out on tops because it allied at the right time with the right side. And it was far off from the main battlefield - save for the one time Napoleon marced on Moscow. even the it was not the Rusiian people who killed the Grand Armee it was Rodina herself.

In a War Austria vs Russia over Poland you won't see Austria marching deep into Russian territory-- both sides would fight mainly in the PLC and over the PLC - A long and dirty mess - Austria also would be in much better shape than otl Austria (Silesia and such).
 
The Russians certainly performed a hell of a lot better during the Seven Years War and the Napoleonic wars than Austria did.

The Russians did not perform better than Austria in the 7 years war. They performed about the same.

In the Napoleonic Wars, the Austrians actually managed one of the few defeats on the Grand Armee at Aspen Esselring. Even Borodino was not a Victory for the Russians, as Kutusov was forced to withdraw.

As it stands Archduke Charles has a victory over Napoleon, Kutusov does not.
 
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I remember a timeline when prussia after losing and getting annexed by Maria Theresa, they just where there as russia got busy with a far more powerful sweden, they were saved becaused their enemies were busy, IIRC become temporally a Strongman Kingdom under a family till gradually democratized but that family still hold too much power.
 
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