Alternative East Timor Independence period.

Cook

Banned

East Timor was occupied by Indonesia between 1975 and 1999.

In 1999 Indonesia’s President B.J. Habibie decided to grant East Timor a referendum under United Nations supervision regarding the future of the province. The Timorese chose independence.

In the lead-up to the vote the Indonesian military made several protests to Australia regarding illegal helicopter flights over the island.

These of course were nothing more than the Indonesian Army’s paranoid delusions. ;)

Suppose however that we lived in a time line where such things occurred?

Suppose in the months prior to the referendum the TNI killed or captured an Australian Special Forces soldier?

Such a soldier would be wearing a generic camouflage uniform and his equipment, while very good, would not be from Australian Army inventory.

What would be the repercussions, Indonesian actions etc?

Alternatively; what if an Australian Special Forces patrol was compromised in the period between the election and the first UN authorised troop landings taking place?

Such a patrol would be in a concealed Observation Post in the hills overlooking Dili, would be equipped with Australian equipment and uniforms and would put up a fight before breaking contact.

The presence of such observation posts is again, purely in an alternative time line. ;)
 
I thinhk we'd apologise profusely while moving 77 and 78 wing, 1st and 3rd brigade and the RAN up north.
 

backstab

Banned
I thinhk we'd apologise profusely while moving 77 and 78 wing, 1st and 3rd brigade and the RAN up north.
Most of 1 Brigade was already north anyway.

How about if Indonesia decides not to press the issue. Things start to unfold OTL then as 3 Brigade (speedhump) makes its landing , they get curbstomped by the TNI.
 
Any military dick swinging by the TNI (and whatever Australian response to said dick swinging, no matter how resonable in comparision) will always meet with the same end--the US exercises its veto over any war scare conditions.

Sure, there might be a clash of arms at some point, but any violence would be written off (whitewashed) as purely accidental, like OTL's minor firefight where the ADF killed a couple of Indonesian infantrymen.

A more interesting scenario is if John Howard never writes to Habibie suggesting that the international community be allowed to supervise E. Timor independence in the first place.

An East Timorese independence process delayed to the post-9/11 world has a much different impact on all three countries.
 
3 Brigade (speedhump) makes its landing , they get curbstomped by the TNI.
Oh ye of little faith, from what I hear I don't think the TNI will do much curbstomping against the ADF. The air opposition on week 1 of the intervention was a single F5 without missiles. I know a bloke who set up in ET with 16 men, 2 GPMG, 2 F89, 2 Carl Gustavs, 2 LAAW and 16 F88 he was faced with an Indo platoon of 32 men who shared 14 M16s. Whatever problems the ADF undoubtably had they still had it all over the Indos.
 

backstab

Banned
Oh ye of little faith, from what I hear I don't think the TNI will do much curbstomping against the ADF. The air opposition on week 1 of the intervention was a single F5 without missiles. I know a bloke who set up in ET with 16 men, 2 GPMG, 2 F89, 2 Carl Gustavs, 2 LAAW and 16 F88 he was faced with an Indo platoon of 32 men who shared 14 M16s. Whatever problems the ADF undoubtably had they still had it all over the Indos.
No doubt we would (With US help) win such a conflict but Indonesia out numbered us by quite a number. I just would not have wanted to be in 1 RAR when they stormed the beach or as in OTL , walked off the C-130's. The TNI would not have advertised the fact that they would contest any landing and even though the diggers were expecting a shit fight, the dumb assed hierachy would have expected to just walk on in. We would have sustained quite a few casulties before we fixed the problem.

When you get to work on Monday, jump on the intranet and check out the Janes site. There is an intresting piece in the country threat area about Australia and Indonesia. I'll send you the link when I get to work.
 
1 RAR may have copped a bloody nose during an opposed landing, but escalating the fighting like that would play right into our strengths in airpower, seapower and (after a bit of deployment) heavy land weapons.
 
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