Alternative Battle of Preveza

formion

Banned
In the year of the Lord, 1537 , there was a grave danger for the christian lands in mediterranean : the ottoman navy under the leadership of brilliant admirals was threatening to overrun the venetian outposts in the east and ravaging the italian and spanish coasts .

In the middle of the sea routes of the Ionian Sea is a couple of islets , Strofades , and in the larger one there is an old medieval fortified monastery and a place of pilgrimage for the nearby islanders. The sea around the islets are notorius for the terrible weather , with scattered shipwrecks .

Fate was cruel for the great Hayreddin Barbarossa , kapudan pasha of the Sultan's fleet . In a furious storm his galley shipwrecked in the rocks around the monastery.
Next year , pope Paul III assembled the Holy League , and soon a christian fleet faced the Ottomans led by Turgut Reis off the coast of Preveza.

strofades+monastery+main.jpg








In this senario there is no Barbarossa and Andrea Doria is more aggressive and willing sacrifice his ship .

I imagine a Lepando Holy League victory in 1538 .


What are the consequences ?


a) Would it lead to a stronger spanish position in the Barbary Coast ? Of course the Hapsburgs have no strategic goal to control the inland of their strongholds in the african shore , but it is probable for more spanish outposts .

With no need for a Lepando campaign in 1571 and better control of the western mediterranean, it is possible for the Spanish Crown to have more resources to funel for the supression the Dutch revolt - but not enough I think .

b) The Venetian empire in the east have more chances to survive or prolong it's fall under ottoman rule .

c) No siege of Malta perhaps



It is my first thread . I would be really happy for your ideas
 
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Although I'd love a world with no Barbarossa, since this guy inflicted a major catastrophe for my homeland, Corfu, in 1537 (over 20,000 killed or enslaved, among which some members of my family), I' m afraid this POD would not bring a major shift in History.

Just remember what happened after Lepanto: the Holy League fell apart and the Ottomans rebuilt their navy in less than a year. Imagine that during the reign of Suleiman the Magnificent! In fact, I could see the Venetian Levant take more losses than IOTL, and even Malta captured sometime in the 1540's, not to mention Vienna. A younger and enraged Suleiman during the zenith of the Ottoman power is something the westerners have little chance to cope with.
 
First question: What kind of victory is it? Is it a decisive victory with the Ottoman fleet decimated, a la Lepanto or are the Ottomans able to withdraw in some sort of order? If the latter then really nothing much changes( I'm assuming the date of this alt-Preveza is the same, if not then things change) the battle was simply too late in the season for anything important to be accomplished. If the former then the Ottomans could be looking at a few years of hurt in the Med. The thing about Mediterranean and galley warfare is that the ships aren't the important thing; crew are. Losing a fleet of warships (but only the ships) would be a setback only until new ships could be constructed which could reasonably be by the next campaign season. Losing the crews for a fleet of ships would be a setback for a navy for decades. So, if alt-Preveza is a decisive victory for the Holy League and the Ottomans loose the experienced core that manned their fleet we would certainly see a stronger Spanish position in North Africa with earlier versions of the OTL expeditions to Algiers, or Djerba. With regards to the Venetian eastern empire it's a bit too far off in the future to predict, Cyprus fell in 1573 and Crete in 1669 so there is a lot of time for the situation to change. You can bet Venice would seize the opportunity to go on the offensive in Dalmatia though. The same applies to the Siege of Malta. That campaign in it's OTL form is likely butterflied but the strategic logic that caused the Ottomans to attack it in the first place is still present so it's entirely possible they would go for it later on. In addition to that the Ottomans might take Chios from Genoa as a way to hit back against Doria.

Also, Welcome to the board and congratulations on a great first thread!
 

formion

Banned
Αndrea and Captain jack , thank you for your replies .

I imagine the ATL Preveza to cost a lot of manpower to the Ottomans , similar to OTL Lepando .

I see an enraged Suleiman to replace quickly the lost galleys , but replacing the experienced sailors and soldiers would be something different , even for the might of the empire.

Chios can not be hold due to the geographic position . But it will be difficult for the Ottomans to attack and occupy Crete and Cyprus for a while . They are big islands with significant fortifications . There have to be some years for the ottoman navy to rise to pre-Preveza quality standards .

I think the Spanish could have for some years, a more easy time to establish some more strongholds in the north african coast .


Basically I wrote this timeline to explore the possibillity to break the OTL Ottoman momentum and it's possible results , nothing very radical .

Besides I think it can shake the franco-ottoman alliance . The rebuilt ottoman fleet may not prioritize the joint operations in the west to assist the French , but invest Chios etc. So , there might be tiny yet possible butterflies in the struggle between Charles and Francis during the italian wars


thanks again for the replies
 
Actually the geographic position of Chios isn't a major factor in whether the Ottomans take it or not. The Ottomans have the military ability to capture Chios and have for a while. The thing is the Ottomans were dependent on English tin that was imported by the Genoese corporation that ruled Chios. If they take Chios they no longer have a secure source of tin to make the bronze for their artillery.

Operations in the western mediterranean or out of the question for quite sometime. The Ottomans won't risk their newly rebuilt, and expensive, fleet in operations away from their home bases. They'll campaign in the Adriatic against Venice's bases in Dalmatia or along the coast of Tripoli and Tunisia to eliminate Spanish bases and relieve the Barbary states.

The most important thing is the loss of specialized naval infantry, especially the composite-bow archers. Most of these soldiers were drawn from basically a feudal system. The soldiers held land in exchange for specialized military service. In addition the troops were practically hereditary. If most of this corps is wiped out the Ottomans won't necessarily be able to rebuild their fleet to the standards of pre-Preveza.
 

formion

Banned
Actually I didn't know about the tin trade between the genoese company and the Sultanate . Quite interesting .

Do you know what happened after the fall of Chios in OTL ? The Ottomans found another source of tin ?
 
The Ottomans were able to get tin from Transylvania, specifically around the town of Szolnok. Also some European merchants just smuggled it in.
 
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