Alternative Bases for Al-Qaeda?

Supposing that Afghanistan had never collapsed and Sudan not drifted into Islamic-tinged authoritarianism where do people think that an Al-Qaeda type organisation would most likely be able to find refuge? I'm assuming for the sake of discussion that even without Afghanistan there would be other suitable recruiting grounds to help see an organisation similar to Al-Qaeda form. The best I can think of is Somalia when it collapses, although northern West Africa is an interesting possibility.
 
Pakistan, maybe, seeing as they have at times supported the Afghan Taliban and AQ.

I'm toying with a timeline in which this happens. Essentially, the Soviets (sort of) successfully conquer Afghanistan in the late 1980s, causing Pakistan to drift further toward Islamic fundamentalism, giving refuge to fleeing mujahadeen and continuig to support insurgencies in Kashmir and Afghanistan. This gets even worse throughout the 1990s, as the US effectively abandons Pakistan in favor of better relations with India, partly as a result of US detente with a surviving USSR. In 1999, an alternate Kargil crisis boils into war with India, culminating in a limited tactical nuclear exchange (under 10 warheads). The US and USSR mediate a peace treaty that heavily favors India in a number of ways and dismantles the fledgling Pakistani nuclear program. Smarting from a crushing defeat and national humiliation, a new hardline Islamist regime arises that sponsors and offers sanctuary to numerous Sunni terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda.

It's very vague so far. Still working on it.
 
Supposing that Afghanistan had never collapsed and Sudan not drifted into Islamic-tinged authoritarianism where do people think that an Al-Qaeda type organisation would most likely be able to find refuge? I'm assuming for the sake of discussion that even without Afghanistan there would be other suitable recruiting grounds to help see an organisation similar to Al-Qaeda form. The best I can think of is Somalia when it collapses, although northern West Africa is an interesting possibility.

-Syria looks like an alternate base. Hafez Al Assad have supported the earlier forms of Al Qaida in Iraq/ISIS against Saddam Hussein. His son allowed movement in Syria during the occupation. Maybe Bashar Al Assad looks the other way while Al Qaida settles in Eastern Syria.

-Iraq is also an option. Saddams last years were utterly hopeless for Iraq. The Shia population was looking towards the pro-Iranian Shia conservatives. If they use the the chaos of 1993 they could become dominant in the Sunni Triangle.

-Bosnia and Kosovo in the 90s. Not what I would expect but there is potential. The Yugoslavian War was horrible and turned people to radical sides. Al Qaida could use the situation as protectors of muslim population in the Balkans. Especially Kosovo would have potential.
 
Pretty much everywhere. The main thing that made Al Qaeda so powerful compared to the other Islamist radical groups of the time is that Bin Laden used his training in watching his father's multinational business empire to set up Al Qaeda as a truely 'Terror Multinational' with a network of affiliates and branches all over the world that would rival that of Standard Oil and CNN. So Al Qaeda could have their 'headquarters' anywhere from Pakistan to Egypt to Nigeria, even to Paris...

Although don't expect too much from its headquarters. It wil mostly just serve as a communication hub to coordinate all its different operations in different countries. Compared to the training camps it will simply look boring.
 
Could that mean that France takes the lead role in fighting A-Q?
Only if they were to threaten their interests in Francafrique. Provided that they kept a low profile and didn't make any waves, for a long while Al-Qaeda was large anti-American, I don't think the French would be all that bothered. That might change after a successful attack on the World Trade Center which generates large amounts of sympathy for the US, although the cynical part of me thinks even then it might be as much to avoid the US intervening unilaterally in countries that France considers to be their backyard.
 
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