Alternate WW1-Realisitic (hopefully)

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East Bank

I am having trouble with both Douamont and Vaux falling so quickly. The former was under garrisoned but still it did fall until the 6th day and even then it was a bizarre fluke. A pioneer got blasted into the moat and bluffed the garrison into surrendering.
 

Deleted member 1487

I am having trouble with both Douamont and Vaux falling so quickly. The former was under garrisoned but still it did fall until the 6th day and even then it was a bizarre fluke. A pioneer got blasted into the moat and bluffed the garrison into surrendering.

Vaux and Douamont haven't been reached just yet and won't necessarily fall earlier. I'm still working out how things are going to go, but worst case scenario, the Germans get over extended, hit and forced to retreat. Or perhaps they surround and storm Douamont. Vaux is a different animal altogether and they still have the 14th division to deal with.

Also a big difference is that the assault troops were not in their Stollen for 10 days in a blizzard. This means they are healthy, rested, and ready to go on the first day. Also, they launched an all out offensive on the first day instead of a recon-in-force. And the gas; first time its ever been used on the western front and it makes a big difference.
 
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Deleted member 1487

day 3

The 23rd opened with a quite calm, which the morning sun broke. The French 37th division had arrived at the fortress chain across the Bois Bourrus ridge. The forts had been stripped of most of their guns and garrison, but they proved excellent observation points and rest areas for their new occupants. From dawn until dusk, the artillery from the ridge raked the Germans to their front, pausing only to allow the infantry to launch assault after assault to drive the enemy back. This had mixed levels of success, as the Germans have withdrawn into the reverse slopes of their newly conquered hills, repulsing the French infantry from freshly dug foxholes. Their numbers prevented the French from retaking Chattancourt, but they did succeed in stopping the advance on the Bourrus ridge. The neighboring corps near Montzeville held its position, as the commander was concerned by how far he had outpaced the majority of the artillery and how long it was taking to bring it up. Furthermore, with the arrival of French reinforcements, he was worried that there were more coming and his troops would be shredded without fire support.

Though excellent observation points had been taken at Cote 304 and Mort Homme, none of the guns had the range to take advantage just yet. The long-range naval artillery had been blasting Verdun proper since the beginning of the offensive. Their fire was redirected for the day until the medium guns could be brought up, causing consternation among the French gunners subject to their wrath. A lucky shell caved in part of the fort overlooking Charny, which had been allowing the gunners to monitor the Germans on the opposite bank. Overall, not much damage was done by the big guns, but it did help the Germans suppress the fire coming from the ridge. It also aided the forces moving along the east bank, as the ridgeline had been able to direct fire at them as well.

The east bank also was quieter, as the majority of the attacking divisions and corps stuck to limited objectives to allow their artillery to cover the gap that had widened over the last two days. The men also needed rest after the constant fighting and heavy strain of rapidly advancing through the forested hills. Seizing the heights about Vaucherauville, the 7th reserve corps was able to overlook Bras and move into the hills to the east of the village, though not very far due to the limited fire coming from the ridge across the river Meuse. The 18th corps was having a very difficult time pushing through the hills north of the Haudromont quarries, as they lacked artillery support and were brought under fire by forts Douaumont, Thiaumont, and the 14th division as they tried to press forward. Attack after attack was beaten off with heavy losses, allowing only limited pushes with heavy grenade launcher and rifle grenade support. The front moved little during the day. The most drastic advance was by the 3rd corps, as it was still aided by its artillery. The men managed to push into the la Vauche hills and take the ruined village of Bezonvaux, the French artillery remained out of range of the German guns, and their fire salvaged the situation for the French infantry. Being pushed back slowly, the ground around Douaumont was well supported by its guns and garrison. Further south, the 132nd division was pulling out of the Woevre too, and sent an infantry regiment, along with some of its batteries to the hard-pressed 14th division. Their contribution would allow the French to contest the heights bitterly.

The Germans were able to bring up some of their medium guns from during the day, but the majority of the heavy guns remained stuck on the roads, as pioneer detachments struggled to adapt the roads to their weight and fill in shell holes. By evening, some of the heavier pieces were able to reach their maximum range in support of their infantry. The pictured brightened for the French though, was another corps arrived before nightfall, coming into the line over night opposite Montzeville, though the artillery lagged behind. Joffre had also dispatched an observer who also arrived in Verdun that evening, to investigate how many more troops should be committed to defend the sector. Finally getting reliable information from the front, sector command presented a grim picture to Joffre’s aide. They wanted to pull back across the Meuse and resist from the opposite bank. This was transmitted to Joffre shortly thereafter, to which he was not entirely opposed, but when the members of the government found out the next day, Briand angrily approached Joffre demanding he hold the city as all costs. Fearing that the loss of Verdun would destroy the nation’s moral, the prime minister forced Joffre’s hand.

Though it would not be until the next morning, Petain was tasked with the defense of the sector, a mission that he embarked on immediately, sending an aide to organize the defense while he prepared reinforcements and the necessary munitions. His representative would arrive mid-day on the 25th, finding there was little he could do immediately, other than halt the retreat that had been ordered by the previous sector commander.
 
Map Problems

I looked at your West Bank developments (which interested me more) and compared it with your map and decided apparently erroneously that it was your current to date situ map and then looked at at the East Bank and had an WTF reaction. Even if it is a maximum German advance map it seems a little bit off.

I don't see an all out French counterattack pushing back the Germans more than 1/2 mile in the short term.

As for poison gas the 24 death phenomenon with phosgene sometimes worked against the Germans. If a machine gunner received a 24 hr lethal dose of phosgene less than an hour before an assault he was not incapicated and therefore able to mow down Germans. Chlorine OTOH was less lethal (Only ~15% of Second Ypres gas casualties were fatalities) but most of those that survived were disabled with greatly diminished lung function. Cynically the ideal weapon in war kills nobody but permanently disables everybody which drains enemy resources to care for the disabled wounded. Green Cross was an attempt to get the best of both chlorine and phosgene.
 

Deleted member 1487

Unfortunately the map is only for reference. I probably should have mentioned that fact. It is OTL map for the maximum German advance. The current advance is more is some areas and less in others. Fort Douaumont is actually garrisoned here and has several guns in batteries including 4x155mm's. Though not much in the broader scheme, the Germans mostly are outside of their own artillery and the forts hurt their ability to dig out the French.

The gas is mainly a psychological weapon, which helps force the French from their positions. But the low numbers of overall gas casualties are the result of good masks towards the end of the war, men retreating from its effects (seriously, who is going to stick around a suffocate?), and familiarity with its effects. The French think that they are immune to the effects of chlorine due to their masks, and Phosgene is tasteless, colorless, and scentless. That gives it the ability to work its full effects later on. Also, the vomit and tear gases that were mixed with the green cross make things significantly worse, as they force men to remove their masks. Chlorine then can work as well. Some men flee into the hills and suffer from the bombardment too.

Don't forget that the Germans did suffer more here due to their attacks, as it took a week OTL to get to 25,000 casualties. Here 20,000 is reached on the first day, but this drops off dramatically after. So, though the initial push is expensive this makes it easier in the long run.
 
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I never claimed to be a navy buff. However, it does not look that the Austrian and German submarines created havoc in the Adriatic. I am under the impression that most of thir missions were in the Mediterranean, which appears more suitable for u-boats: the Adriatic is too shallow, and with good water visibility. I would say that Italian torpedo boats were much more suitable for raids and torpedoing in this theatre, and they performed much better than submarines on either side.

You are belaboring the MAS boat. That weapon had a very steep learning curve before the late war successes. In fact little is to be expected on it before mid 1916 as per this source http://www.historynet.com/naval-weaponry-italys-mas-torpedo-boats.htm

Thanks for the link, but it appears to be supporting my statement. Or maybe I am just missing your point.

I did not say that the MAS was a decisive factor in the war, nor that they came in service at the top of their effectiveness. It would have been quite hard, since they were still almost untested under combat conditions (the same is obviously applicable to submarines too: I remember reading somewhere that effective tactics for submarines were developed not earlier than 1916).

My point was that the MAS was more suitable to the conditions of the Adriatic theatre and over the duration of the war they performed better than submarines: are you disagreeing with this?
 

Deleted member 1487

day 4

The morning of the 24th saw the widening of the battle, as the Germans committed two more corps, the 5th reserve and the 15th based around Etain. The plan was to force the French to defend everywhere with their weak forces, causing them to break somewhere. But the French brought in new forces hoping to stem the tide.

West Bank:


Montzeville

The French 20th corps arrived in full force on the 24th, after having waited for their artillery to be moved up over the rough roads around Bethelainville. By the dawn light the corps commander could finally have the terrain mapped and develop a plan of attack. 20th corps was tasked with retaking Montzeville and Esnes. Despite harassment by German fighters, the corps was ready to move by afternoon. German air supremacy gave them an amazing advantage, as did the possession of the high ground at Cote 304. The entire preparations of the French were observed and noted, while the German infantry were dug in on reverse slopes, hiding in the nearby woods, or held in reserve behind Esnes. The French artillery did its work with little effect, as their flat trajectory guns could not strike at the German positions, and the infantry moved into their assembly areas. When fully concentrated they were hit with unforgiving salvos from the corps artillery near Esnes. Finally brought up during the night, the German guns were camouflaged and were ready to defend against the anticipated riposte the next day. Despite the deadly rain of shells falling on them, the attack still went off, only to collapse when they confronted the well placed machine guns around Montzeville. The battle lasted the day, ending with roughly the same lines as had been occupied at the start of the day.

Bois Bourrus

The ridge was forming the anchor of the French line, as new batteries reinforcing the sector were funneled to this position. The forts themselves were proving excellent for the housing of ammunition and men while also providing observation points protected from all but the heaviest shells.

The 37th division did not attack that day, but provided fire support for the east bank and continued to rake the Germans around Marre. But as a focal point of from guns, it also became the target for German fire. More corps artillery was brought up over recently repaired roads through Mort Homme and Cumieres. These guns, still lacking the heaviest pieces were able to shell the ridge throughout the day, aided later by the heavy naval guns that took a break from shelling Verdun. Though missing the forts this time, they did damage or destroy several batteries, causing fire to slacken. The loss of the fort covering the east bank the previous day to shelling from these guns caused difficulties for the fire missions on the opposite bank, but the French were still able to hinder the 7th reserve corps. Later in the day when the 5th reserve corps moved up, their artillery parked around Cote de Talou and ranged in on the ridge. The fire brought to bear against the ridge was growing daily, knocking out guns and battering the forts into submission.

East Bank

Thiaumont

The 7th reserve corps was moving on fort Thiaumont that day, but was coming under fire from the opposite bank. The ridge at Bois Bourrus was hampering the western flank of the advance, something the corps artillery, also on the scene could only reduce, not stop. The heavier howitzers were still helping the advance by pounding the targeted fort, but fort Belleville was able to launch some artillery strikes at the advance, further slowing things. Eventually the infantry managed to reach Thiaumont’s wall and assault the garrison directly. Their small number and their lack of supplies or will for a long siege finally caused them to surrender that evening.

Woevre

The 15th corps was finally freed up from the plains as the 132nd division pulled back into the heights of the Meuse. Reinforced with several batteries of the 420mm big berthas and 21cm Moesers, the corps worked its way forward to Eix, setting up their big guns to duel with the forts of Vaux, Moulainville, and Tavannes. These forts did not have enough ammo or guns to really impede the advance, so the infantry worked their way of the causeway leading to the heights cautiously. While they were working forward, the 132nd division moved up to Foret de Sommedieve to contest their advance. By this time, the forts had had most of their guns turrets knocked out and the 15th corps was fanning out into the hills to capture them. One division, tasked with taking Moulainville bumped into the 132nd division, causing a furious battle to break out surrounding the fort. The occupants, mostly defenseless and only numbering 57, kept their heads down while battle raged outside. The German division still possessed its full compliment of regiments, while the French had given up one of theirs to the 14th division. Coupled with intervention of the German heavy guns, this put them at a large disadvantage. The firepower brought against the French caused them to retreat into the hills, abandoning the fort to its fate. It surrendered shortly thereafter.

Duoaumont

The northern German division contacted the regiment from the 132nd division on loan to the 14th division, as it attempted to cover the retreat of the 14th division. Realizing that they were caught from behind, the 14th division pulled out of their shrinking positions around Duoaumont and fled to Fleury to set up another line. The Germans had broken through, leaving the 14th division with less than 40% strength even with the 132nd division’s regiment. The German 18th and 3rd corps moved up, surrounding Duoaumont, pausing to force its surrender.

Sector Command

Realizing that there were simply no more units to hold the line, a retreat was ordered. 14th, 132nd, and 3rd divisions were all ordered to fall back to the city proper and prepare to move across the river. Under cover of darkness, all three fell back, the Germans unaware of their departure. The way to Verdun was only guarded by undergunned and manned forts.
 
Douamont, Vaux and Belrupt

The morning of the 24th saw the widening of the battle, as the Germans committed two more corps, the 5th reserve and the 15th based around Etain. The plan was to force the French to defend everywhere with their weak forces, causing them to break somewhere. But the French brought in new forces hoping to stem the tide.

West Bank:


Montzeville

The French 20th corps arrived in full force on the 24th, after having waited for their artillery to be moved up over the rough roads around Bethelainville. By the dawn light the corps commander could finally have the terrain mapped and develop a plan of attack. 20th corps was tasked with retaking Montzeville and Esnes. Despite harassment by German fighters, the corps was ready to move by afternoon. German air supremacy gave them an amazing advantage, as did the possession of the high ground at Cote 304. The entire preparations of the French were observed and noted, while the German infantry were dug in on reverse slopes, hiding in the nearby woods, or held in reserve behind Esnes. The French artillery did its work with little effect, as their flat trajectory guns could not strike at the German positions, and the infantry moved into their assembly areas. When fully concentrated they were hit with unforgiving salvos from the corps artillery near Esnes. Finally brought up during the night, the German guns were camouflaged and were ready to defend against the anticipated riposte the next day. Despite the deadly rain of shells falling on them, the attack still went off, only to collapse when they confronted the well placed machine guns around Montzeville. The battle lasted the day, ending with roughly the same lines as had been occupied at the start of the day.

Bois Bourrus

The ridge was forming the anchor of the French line, as new batteries reinforcing the sector were funneled to this position. The forts themselves were proving excellent for the housing of ammunition and men while also providing observation points protected from all but the heaviest shells.

The 37th division did not attack that day, but provided fire support for the east bank and continued to rake the Germans around Marre. But as a focal point of from guns, it also became the target for German fire. More corps artillery was brought up over recently repaired roads through Mort Homme and Cumieres. These guns, still lacking the heaviest pieces were able to shell the ridge throughout the day, aided later by the heavy naval guns that took a break from shelling Verdun. Though missing the forts this time, they did damage or destroy several batteries, causing fire to slacken. The loss of the fort covering the east bank the previous day to shelling from these guns caused difficulties for the fire missions on the opposite bank, but the French were still able to hinder the 7th reserve corps. Later in the day when the 5th reserve corps moved up, their artillery parked around Cote de Talou and ranged in on the ridge. The fire brought to bear against the ridge was growing daily, knocking out guns and battering the forts into submission.

East Bank

Thiaumont

The 7th reserve corps was moving on fort Thiaumont that day, but was coming under fire from the opposite bank. The ridge at Bois Bourrus was hampering the western flank of the advance, something the corps artillery, also on the scene could only reduce, not stop. The heavier howitzers were still helping the advance by pounding the targeted fort, but fort Belleville was able to launch some artillery strikes at the advance, further slowing things. Eventually the infantry managed to reach Thiaumont’s wall and assault the garrison directly. Their small number and their lack of supplies or will for a long siege finally caused them to surrender that evening.

Woevre

The 15th corps was finally freed up from the plains as the 132nd division pulled back into the heights of the Meuse. Reinforced with several batteries of the 420mm big berthas and 21cm Moesers, the corps worked its way forward to Eix, setting up their big guns to duel with the forts of Vaux, Moulainville, and Tavannes. These forts did not have enough ammo or guns to really impede the advance, so the infantry worked their way of the causeway leading to the heights cautiously. While they were working forward, the 132nd division moved up to Foret de Sommedieve to contest their advance. By this time, the forts had had most of their guns turrets knocked out and the 15th corps was fanning out into the hills to capture them. One division, tasked with taking Moulainville bumped into the 132nd division, causing a furious battle to break out surrounding the fort. The occupants, mostly defenseless and only numbering 57, kept their heads down while battle raged outside. The German division still possessed its full compliment of regiments, while the French had given up one of theirs to the 14th division. Coupled with intervention of the German heavy guns, this put them at a large disadvantage. The firepower brought against the French caused them to retreat into the hills, abandoning the fort to its fate. It surrendered shortly thereafter.

Duoaumont

The northern German division contacted the regiment from the 132nd division on loan to the 14th division, as it attempted to cover the retreat of the 14th division. Realizing that they were caught from behind, the 14th division pulled out of their shrinking positions around Duoaumont and fled to Fleury to set up another line. The Germans had broken through, leaving the 14th division with less than 40% strength even with the 132nd division’s regiment. The German 18th and 3rd corps moved up, surrounding Duoaumont, pausing to force its surrender.

Sector Command

Realizing that there were simply no more units to hold the line, a retreat was ordered. 14th, 132nd, and 3rd divisions were all ordered to fall back to the city proper and prepare to move across the river. Under cover of darkness, all three fell back, the Germans unaware of their departure. The way to Verdun was only guarded by undergunned and manned forts.

Hmm even if surrounded and undergarrissoned I would see Ft. Douamont holding out 24 hrs though there is evidence of low morale there. Did Vaux and Travannes fall as well? My understanding was the French fought stubbornly from the rubble of Vaux OTL.

My most important point though is if the Germans can take and hold Ft. Belrupt it's all over (though the end game might last up to a week if Joffre is extra stubborn). Their may be some problem with French enfilading fire from Haudainville, Rozellier, St. Michel and what's left of Tavannes though.
 
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Deleted member 1487

day 5

East Bank

5th corps

Von Strantz’s 5th corps was caught by surprise when they discovered early on the 25th that the French 3rd division had pulled out of their positions overnight. Having previously retreated to the Rupt-Haudiamont line after the 132nd division was forced to head north, Strantz was concerned that the French had just pulled back again and any advance would just bump into the next line of defenses, with the tangled woods causing his men to blunder into an ambush. Therefore, when the 5th corps moved forward, the advance was cautious, until the aviation detachment linked with Strantz’s unit informed him of the French crossing the Meuse at Dieue and setting up in the heights on the other side. From that point, the advance of the 5th corps picked up, only to halt as the forts Haudainville and Rozellier began shelling the Germans. It took time to bring up the corps guns on the unpaved country roads, but late in the day a gun duel began, the Germans slowly battering the forts apart, as they had not been modernized like the others further north. The 3rd division across the river also joined in on the festivities, but its impact was limited.

15th corps

The situation on the central advance had become somewhat grimmer. Though the defending infantry divisions had pulled out, there remained the forts to deal with. Moulainville had fallen the previous day and the garrison had surrendered, but Tavannes proved much for difficult. The gun turrets had been knocked out when the heavy German howitzers had been deployed, but the machine guns still were in action and enfiladed the advance up the main road to Verdun. Furthermore fort Souville was still in action and shelling the same road, greatly hindering the 15th corps from advancing. Tavannes was already surrounded, but the infantry company left behind to reinforce the garrison was not willing to surrender the rubble. Fighting occupied an entire regiment that eventually managed to force the defenders into the bowels of the structure. Fighting would not cease for nearly three days. The heavy guns of and attached to the corps would be forced to duel with Souville and later Belrupt for most of the day, only later on finally pushing some infantry and artillery observers within sight of the city itself.

3rd corps/18th corps

The 3rd corps was given the most unenviable task in conjunction with the 18th corps of taking Souville. Vaux was still resisting, despite being battered into dust. Infantry still were clinging to the ruins and refused to give in. This would also absorb an entire regiment, lasting a shocking week, by the end of which every defender had been killed. Souville proved a hard nut to crack, even with the guns of over 3 corps contributing to its reduction. The forts Belleville and St. Michel were within sight of the battle contributed limited fire missions that hampered the storming of the fort. Finally, several shots from the big berthas managed to blast a wall out and allow storming infantry troops in. They heavily outnumbered the nearly 150 defenders, many of whom were injured already, but the fighting lasted well into the night, finally ending with the surrender of the remaining five defenders. The fall of the fort had meant that Falkenhayn’s line of resistance for the attrition battle had been reached: the Froidterre-Souville-Tavennes axis was all that OHL had planned on capturing, content on letting the French had a foothold on the east bank, enough to convince them to launch wasteful counter attacks. But 5th army had different plans, wanting to capture the city itself and declare total victory. Instrumental to this was the last height before the city proper.

Falkenhayn more than happy to stop the advance and let the French counter attack, but the staff of the 5th army, led by the crown prince, insisted on capturing the city. Asserting his control, starting on the 27th, Falkenhayn had four corps pulled out of the area, taking away all of 5th army’s reserves. Frustrated in their goal, the commander of the 5th army took his complaints to his father, only to be reprimanded sternly. The power struggle within the German army was beginning again, as army commanders who had never fully accepted Falkenhayn rallied around the crown prince.

The French

On the other side of the hill, Petain’s representative showed up to the Verdun sector on the 25th, countermanding the order to retreat across the Meuse and relieved the current commander. But the damage had been done. By the time that the order had been received, the remnants of the 14th and 132nd divisions were already on the other side of the Meuse. Once there, it was obvious that they could not be thrown back into the fray quickly, and a newly arrived corps was thrown into the city, taking up positions along the last line of defense around dusk. They were subjected to bombardment by the Germans, who now had observation positions overlooking the city. But the low light enabled them to move without heavy losses. The next day would see several counter attacks, allowing the French to establish a line from Rozellier to St. Michel, but leaving a gap between the heights containing St. Michel to the heights of Belrupt, leaving that space dominated by fire. The Germans now at Souville were able to view much of the field, making it dangerous to hold certain ground. But by not controlling this space, it allowed for limited observation of the city, causing the French endless trouble supplying the forces on the east bank.

West Bank

The fighting on the opposite side of the Meuse was little better, was the Germans controlled the most important ground and were able to shut down any attack before it began. Also, the Bois Bourrus ridge was attracting too much fire, limiting its usefulness as an artillery park. The Germans at the Froidterre were able to view the rear of the hill, allowing them to direct accurate fire at the only paved road running up its spine. The Germans did not attempt to advance and the French were trying to cope with their observation superiority. Petain would have his hands full trying to dig out the Germans now.
 
End Game

Capturing and holding any of the following will result in an ultimate German victory at Verdun:

1] All of the Bois Bourrus Ridge Though in this case the end game could drag on for 2 weeks

2] Ft. Belrupt End Game should be a week at most in this case

3}Ft. St. Michel Also a short end game

Storming the city itself prematurely is unwise. Urban fighting can be as deadly as trench warfare and in some ways even trickier.

Is Knobelsdorf still the chief of staff for Fifth Army?
 

Deleted member 1487

Capturing and holding any of the following will result in an ultimate German victory at Verdun:

1] All of the Bois Bourrus Ridge Though in this case the end game could drag on for 2 weeks

2] Ft. Belrupt End Game should be a week at most in this case

3}Ft. St. Michel Also a short end game

Storming the city itself prematurely is unwise. Urban fighting can be as deadly as trench warfare and in some ways even trickier.

Is Knobelsdorf still the chief of staff for Fifth Army?

Yes Knobelsdorf is still around and he wants to go for the jugular, but Falkenhayn is removing the resources for an offensive. Enough has been left for a strong defense, but little else.
Basically, Falkenhayn OTL wanted to hold a specific line of ridges on the East Bank, which would give the French hope for counter attacks, but put them at a disadvantage. Taking the city or the last heights above it would mean the French won't counter attack, as there is no hope of success. It is a brutal metric and the Germans hold more, unfavorable terrain than OTL, so it might get a bit ugly for them too.
 
Get Ugly or Get Quiet?

Yes Knobelsdorf is still around and he wants to go for the jugular, but Falkenhayn is removing the resources for an offensive. Enough has been left for a strong defense, but little else.
Basically, Falkenhayn OTL wanted to hold a specific line of ridges on the East Bank, which would give the French hope for counter attacks, but put them at a disadvantage. Taking the city or the last heights above it would mean the French won't counter attack, as there is no hope of success. It is a brutal metric and the Germans hold more, unfavorable terrain than OTL, so it might get a bit ugly for them too.

Hmm as for Knobelsdorf I thought the Kronprinz disliked and eventually got rid of him so it is ironic but not impossible that they are now united against Falkenhayn.

I also have a theory that Falkenhayn did actually want to take Verdun eventually (he needed it for his own prestige vis a vis the Dynamic Duo) but only after several French counterattacks.

Petain is the fly in Falkenhayn's ointment. He is going to be extremely reluctant to mount a counterattack of any size under these conditions. The end result is you could have Verdun going relatively quiet for a while. Eventually pressure from Joffre will force Petain to do something but it will be well prepared and limited in scope. We have discussed how much France is short on manpower compared to OTL due to the complete loss of Pas de Calais, Nord and Somme but the situation is much worse in terms of firepower and Petain is a big believer in firepower not manpower.
 
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Deleted member 1487

Petain is the fly in Falkenhayn's ointment. He is going to be extremely reluctant to mount a counterattack of any size under these conditions. The end result is you could have Verdun going relatively quiet for a while. Eventually pressure from Joffre will force Petain to do something but it will be well prepared and limited in scope. We have discussed how much France is short on manpower compared to OTL due to the complete loss of Pas de Calais, Nord and Somme but the situation is much worse in terms of firepower and Petain is a big believer in firepower not manpower.

Falkenhayn won't be under the same pressure to take Verdun to bolster his image here, as OTL, so he is willing to hamstring the 5th army's offensive potential to keep them in line. Note though that the heavy artillery batteries are still all there.

Now I know that Petain was very concerned about preserving his men's lives, but he is going to be under intense pressure to take back ground from the Germans. So he may need to take offensive action somewhere to placate the government and Joffre. Eventually, there will have to be an attempt to take back Souville, but the longer they wait the harder it is going to be to grab.
 

Deleted member 1487

Meuse Mill

To understand the course of the Battle of Verdun, if one were to call the long series of engagements around the city a battle, the overall strategy for both the Western Allies and Germans must be understood. The Allies had planned on a joint offensive in the Somme area to bleed the Germans and breakthrough to the Channel ports. Neither part really thought the Somme was a good location for an offensive, but it was the one area where the French and British lines met. The French needed the British to bear more of the burden on the Western Front, something that they had not been able to previously, but with Kitchener’s New Army arriving in force, along with the troops taken from the Gallipoli fiasco, the British possessed the greatest troops density in their lines on the front in France.

They ended up taking over more the French lines in March to free up troops for the Verdun battle, pushing the area for the offensive somewhat further southeast. This one area proved to be one of if not the most fortified areas of the German line. But politics being what it is, a compromise was made and given the intensity of the fighting along the Meuse, it was hoped that the Germans would not been able to reinforce when the Somme offensive started.

But as Verdun dragged on the promised French contribution dropped. Petain, given command of the battle, required a rotation system whereby every division only spent two weeks on the line before being taken out of the sector to rebuild. This kept up moral and combat effectiveness, but it meant that more troops were being rotated through the battle and a constant stream of replacement divisions were needed. Slowly, the British were being forced to bear most of the burden of the coming offensive on the Somme. Joffre kept pressuring the British to move up the start date for the attack, but Haig, the new British commander, proved obstinate, and refused to commit his new troops to the battle before they were ready. But as casualties rose at Verdun, political pressure mounted and the offensive was slated for June 1st, the earliest that Haig would allow.

The rebuilt and retrained troops, such as the Anzac divisions taken from Gallipoli had been brought to Europe and were ready well before the offensive for action. This proved to be a major factor in getting Haig to move up the date to before July, his original start date. This coincided well with the Russian attacks planed for June. As events would late show, nothing worked as planned.

For the Germans, they had intended Verdun as the first in a series of battles to bleed France into submission before launching a breakthrough attack late in the year. It was also hoped that the pressure at Verdun would force the British into a hasty attack, another factor is Falkenhayn’s removal of troops from the battle. However, this never quite worked as intended. Political pressure was mounting on Falkenhayn to do something with his reserves by April when the British had not attacked, and Ober Ost had promoted their plan to attack Russia on the cheap and keep them off balance. The May attack on Riga was the initiative which backfired, as more troops were dragged into that fight, whittling down OHL’s strategic reserve. Luckily Austria-Hungary was able to pick up some of the Eastern Front slack later on, despite their difficulties with Brusilov and the repeated Italian offensives on the Isonzo.

The Front at Verdun never stopped in its intensity and shell requirements. It did not prove very manpower intensive after the initial attacks, but the front remained active for quite a while. The St. Mihiel salient was no longer such after the French had pulled back across the Meuse in the Rupt area, which enabled troops to be moved north out of that sector, helping Von Strantz’s 5th corps hold the southern section of the Meuse heights, especially as the French tried to recapture their old positions there. Attacks were also concentrated out of the toehold that the French had maintained in the valley between forts Belrupt, Haudainville, and Rozellier. Shielded from the worst of the German shelling and observation, this valley originated many of the attacks to the south, east, and north that Petain tried to expand his positions and split the Germans’.

Observation from Souville and the heights to the south of the fort proved decisive in preventing the French from turning Verdun proper into a jump off point for attacks. Belleville and St. Michel were soon destroyed in the various bombardments of the city and heights above, forcing the French defenders underground. The city was soon destroyed as resupply attempts were pounded mercilessly.

The Germans managed to get the Tavannes tunnel back into action, allowing them uninterrupted supply by rail, while the French were forced to cautiously bring supply up by truck, as the rail lines running into the city were visible and under artillery attack at any time. The French troops across the Meuse in Verdun were terribly supplied, as any supply movement across the river was instantly hit by the Germans. The only thing keeping the reserve slope of the final heights before Verdun and the city itself out of German hands was the French artillery, which would murder any infantry moving out of the hills. The hills of the east bank were still under constant curtains of fire to harass and kill Germans, but most were dug in too deep and kept back from the front to make a difference. In fact, it was mostly an empty battlefield for the Germans, as artillery essentially kept the French at arm’s length. Many veterans of the battle would say that their stay at Verdun was quite comfortable, as the captured French forts were turned into rest facilities with enough amenities to make the area almost livable. So much of the German lines were out of French artillery observation that the infantry actually suffered a low casualty rate in the sector, exactly part of Falkenhayn’s plan.

The French were not so lucky. The burden of attack was on them, as the Germans had quickly given up trying to advance after OHL had pulled out the sector reserves and French guns made the limited offensive moves far too costly for resulting gains. The French, or rather Petain, were bound politically in holding Verdun and recapturing the heights of the Meuse, but this proved too costly by March, forcing a flanking strategy. Attacks were made on the west bank to the north, with limited attack on Montzeville and Marre dominating the March-April period. Limited progress had been made by the end, but Chattencourt and Esnes were still not reached, though casualties had reached over 100,000. German guns on the East bank of the Meuse continued to rake French troops on the West, proving an insurmountable obstacle.

During the same timeframe attacks were also made to the south, aiming at expanding the Haudainville salient, which were more successful. Attacks to the north were still under observation by Souville, so these were swiftly discontinued. Moves to the south were had experienced less resistance, so when the northern attacks were discontinued, further offensives were conducted in this area. Painful progress was made, resulting in the capture of Dieue and its valley. But the Germans stubbornly clung to the Sommedieve forest, which quickly turned to match sticks. This prevented the recapture of Haudimont and the interdiction of the rail lines running through Etain. When the Somme started in June, another attempt was made to move push through the forest again, this time commanded by the savvy Robert Neville. Though having developed an effective system of artillery tactics, the subsequent success of the French offensive had less to do with his influence than the demands of the Somme and Eastern Fronts having reduced the number of guns and shells available to Verdun. The rolling attacks finally netted the French Rupt and Mouilly to the south, Watronville to the east, and the remains of fort Moutainville to the north. These were impressive gains, but they came at a price. By the end of July the French casualties near Verdun were over 250,000. Still, the offensive had been a major success and the Etain rail way was cut. 5th army demanded troops, guns, and shells for a counter offensive, but were denied, given the commitments elsewhere.

Falkenhayn was not entirely displeased, as the Tavannes-Souville-Froid Terre line held, his original planned defense line. The rail line coming Azannes remained open, with another line from fort Vaux to Tavannes having been completed in mid-June. The shorter front was actually more defensible than the previous front and the Eix-Verdun road proved to be an insurmountable obstacle to the French. Verdun remained under observation and German guns were more concentrated, while the French were forced to defend a larger salient.

The battle continued at a lower level through until September, when the fighting on the Somme was slowing down. By that time the Eastern Front had become a relatively quiet area and the focus on Verdun resumed. The French once again resumed the offensive, but this time they had more guns of heavy and medium calibers and more howitzers and mortars. But the Germans, now freed of the demands in other sectors were able to funnel in shells and guns as well. The build up took some time for the French, as they had no rail lines running through the heights in their section of the front. Instead, they were forced to build up roads and drive the munitions and guns into the hills. This was under the watchful eye of enemy aviation, which allowed for German artillery to delay the build up. When the next series of assaults actually began, the results were predictable. Little progress was made with a large body count. Falkenhayn’s brutal plan was working. Fighting raged through December, but the German line remained unbroken. Break ins were repelled and the French thrown out time and time again, as they blasted a path only to see reinforcements and massed artillery fire push them back out. By December 20th Joffre officially called off the offensive and removed Petain from command. He had been disgraced, though really, it was through no fault of his own; he had been forced to fight a battle not of his choosing, rather, political pressure had forced him to fight Falkenhayn’s battle.

Distraught, he spent the next several months on the inactive list, convinced France was now going to lose the war. Joffre was removed from high command as well, the failures of 1916 laid at his feet. Robert Nivelle, hero of Verdun, the only unsullied name to emerge from the cratered hell was given the GQG slot for 1917. All hopes rested on him.

Verdun would be a battle that would live in infamy, in many ways overshadowing the large battle of the Somme. The French, while never losing Verdun officially, never regained it completely. Spin had reduced the magnitude of the failure to break the Germans, but the French army and people were still demoralized over the whole affair. There were no national myths that emerged and the casualty list was far too much for what was liberated. The French army obviously claimed that the Germans had lost more heavily, but few believed the official line. In reality, the French losses had topped 400,000, and the Germans had suffered nearly 180,000. The protected nature of their territorial gains in the first five days of battle had left them with an immense advantage that the French were simply not able to overcome. Over 75% of the French army had been rotated through the Meuse Mill, but the 5th army was the only formation that had to endure the ordeal on the German side-replacements had been fed in to the battle, but no new units were rotated through. While the battle had hurt the German army, the French were now teetering on the brink.
 
I am glad you moved up Nth Somme (you have had at least 2 previous) to June. Actually I could see mid-May. Again I must repeat that the British want the Channel Ports back. There is multiple reasons for this and one of growing importance is it is the LoC of the BEF back to England. First is the fact that the British cannot use Boulogne and Calais but there is also the fact that the KM will using those ports as bases from which to attack the mouth of the Seine with mines, UBoats and night TB raids. By early 1916 I would see Cherbourg supplying more than half of the BEF's supplies due to the pressure on Le Havre and even Cherbourg is not safe as the UB II boats come into play.

If Falkenhayn is looking to put pressure on France at more than Verdun Reims would be tempting. Or Belfort. Less ambitiously St. Die.

Hmm bothered a bit by Nivelle's success at Verdun given all the cumulative deltas. Of course if he fails at Verdun you can't have a Nivelle Offensive.
 

Deleted member 1487

I am glad you moved up Nth Somme (you have had at least 2 previous) to June. Actually I could see mid-May. Again I must repeat that the British want the Channel Ports back. There is multiple reasons for this and one of growing importance is it is the LoC of the BEF back to England. First is the fact that the British cannot use Boulogne and Calais but there is also the fact that the KM will using those ports as bases from which to attack the mouth of the Seine with mines, UBoats and night TB raids. By early 1916 I would see Cherbourg supplying more than half of the BEF's supplies due to the pressure on Le Havre and even Cherbourg is not safe as the UB II boats come into play.

If Falkenhayn is looking to put pressure on France at more than Verdun Reims would be tempting. Or Belfort. Less ambitiously St. Die.

Hmm bothered a bit by Nivelle's success at Verdun given all the cumulative deltas. Of course if he fails at Verdun you can't have a Nivelle Offensive.

Nivelle's success really has less to do with him than the German weakness at Verdun if the wake of the earlier Somme. Fighting dropped off before the Somme, and given the German positional advantage and favorable casualty ratio, there was an assumption that with the French participation on the Somme that they were giving up on offensives in the Verdun area. Also, heavy batteries are being transferred out and with the presence of only 4 corps on the east bank to hold from Sommedieue to Froid Terre, the French were able to finally mass enough guns on the west bank to force a breakthrough with surprise. The East front is going to be really hot in my next post, so maybe that will help explain why the French were able to gain an advantage around Verdun, at least for a time.

Historically the French artillery program began to pay dividends around the time of Verdun, so that is also a factor here, even if the French are weaker than historical. Nivelle won't get to keep his false laurels for too long; I think a convergence on the Nivelle offensive is appropriate.
 

Deleted member 1487

Eastern Front in 1916

The Eastern front in 1916 was at the nadir of its brutality. The initial Russian thrusts around lake Narotch were bloody failures causing 5:1 Russian to German casualties to no gain. In May the Riga offensive broke the Russian North front, prompting vast and bloody counter attacks running through September. The Brusilov offensive on June 1st, occurring on the same day as the Somme offensive, battered the Austrian lines, causing massive casualties to both sides. By the end of it the Russian army was in shambles and the Central Powers had been badly shaken.

After the success of the Riga operation, the Russians were in full retreat only to be halted and thrown back into the fray less than a week later. Ober Ost, realizing the Russians were not fully beaten, had their troops dig in rather than pursue. This was the single greatest factor is saving their conquest during the massive retaliation operation that followed. In late May the Russian North Front launched hasty attacks to break the Germans and reestablish the Dvina line. Wave after wave of infantry were thrown at the enemy and hours long bombardments proceeded and followed each. Prodigious amounts of ammunition and lives were thrown away, as the Germans had worked feverishly to build trench lines and site their guns. By mid-June, over 200,000 men were lost in these attacks. The Western Front also launched their own subsidiary attacks to draw Germans away from the North Front, only to be sorely disappointed by their failures. But nonetheless, OHL was being forced to commit its reserves at a prodigious rate, sending 2/3s to the Somme and the rest to the Eastern Front. Verdun was left starving of shells and men by June.

The most successful of all the supporting attacks along the eastern front was by the Southwestern front of the newly promoted Brusilov. Having distilled tactical, operational, and strategic lessons from the pervious campaign seasons, his Front was easily the most modern of the Russian army. Rivaling the Western nations for sophistication and in equipment, Brusilov’s offensive managed several stunning successes in the first few days. The goals were to take Lutsk, Kowel, Tarnopol, Lemberg, and Czernowitz. Five Austrian armies opposed four Russian and they had a massive system of bunkers and pillboxes set up to oppose the Russians. The Austrian armies had in fact been improved significantly since Conrad had been removed from command, but still there was a growing moral problem among the Slavic members of the dual monarchy, which would have large effects on the coming battle. Supply had remained a problem, as the loss of rolling stock and lack of replacement had left many cities in the Austrian half of the Habsburg Empire short on food, causing discontent among the soldiers and their families wrote of starvation and privation at home.

When the hurricane bombardment for Brusilov’s offensive began, the Russian troops stood ready in the trenches to breakthrough the Austrian lines. Ahead, special troops were infiltrating the Austrian lines breaking into positions and readying the front for an easier breakthrough by the regular soldiers back in the line. By the end of the first week, Lutsk, Czernowitz, and Tarnopol had all been recaptured and over 200,000 men had been captured, the majority deserting Czechs or Southern Slavs. The Habsburg K.u.K. command staff had swung into action and prepared troops for counter attacks, stockpiling weapons and munitions. But their requests for German help were turned down, as their ally was very hard pressed themselves on multiple fronts. Romania was making noise about jumping in the battle, trying to extort territory from Hungary. But the Habsburgs turned down their demands, and soon saw that they were mobilizing their army. The Romanians would take time to mobilize, but no troops could be freed up to man the frontier. To forestall the Romanian jackals, the Russians would need to be defeated.

Though the lines had recoiled, there were certain advantages the Austrians now possessed. Many of the “useless” mouths to feed of soldiers not willing to fight were in Russian hands, requiring Russian supplies for sustenance. The remaining men generally were willing to fight if they felt their lives were not being wasted. Also, the Russians had over extended themselves, outrunning their artillery support. STAVKA was wrapped up in the Riga problem and had no extra support to lend to assist the development of the breakthrough. Though the Southwest Front remained powerful, it had shot its bolt and was now relying on the Austrians to fall apart for their advance to continue. Straußberg had ordered the line pulled back, further increasing the confidence of Brusilov that the Austrians were finally finished and he could reach his objectives and bring Romania into the war. This proved soon to be fantasy, as the Habsburg troops were concentrated for counter offensives in the areas most threatened first for a concentrated blow to shatter the Russian armies.

Troops were removed from the center to counter the bulges on the flanks at Czernowitz and Lutsk, before a final attack would be launched to recover Tarnopol. It was the Russians’ turn to be surprised when, nearly ten days later, the Austrians were on the attack. Gone was the sloppiness that had characterized Conrad’s command. Efficient like a well-oiled machine, the counter attacks struck the Russian spearheads with brutal force. Hurricane bombardments and rolling barrages, methods that the Russians had just used, were now turned on the men of Brusilov’s armies. Caught without adequate support, the infantry and cavalry of the 8th army, the victors of Lutsk, were smashed by the soldiers of the Austrian 2nd army and reinforcements that swiftly retook Lutsk. From there, the northern flank of the Austrian advance bogged down, as the Russian guns finally had caught up and stopped the counter attack. To the South, the Austrian 7th army, using similar methods actually pushed back into Czernowitz, the confidence of the Austrian army high. They were actually attacking and defending without major German help (other than some staff work and strategic observers offering advice). By the end of June the offensive had been shut down and all major objectives had been recaptured by the Austrians. The Romanians decided to halt their declaration of war, as it seemed the Austrians were a much tougher nut to crack and the Russians would not be able to directly support their attack. But their army remained mobilized, as the Austrians entered into negotiations of the possibility of prompting them into the war on the Central Power’s side. Bulgaria remained unengaged to the south, and would be able to launch a full invasion of Romania if they attacked Austria. The Turks were even able to muster troops in Europe for an attack, which further dissuaded from any anti-Austrian maneuvers. For the moment the Austrian front in the east quieted down (the Italians had launched an offensive in the meantime, getting nowhere) and there was time to lick the wounds. Nearly 400,000 casualties had been incurred in a month, not counting POW’s and deserters. The Russians had suffered about 500,000 themselves, though many toward the end had been prisoners and deserters themselves.

Back to the north, the Germans finally were able to get a handle on the Russian attacks, though they continued into September. By the time they ended, with neither side gaining ground on the other, the Russians had suffered nearly 700,000 casualties, literally battering themselves to death on German defenses. To their credit, the Germans had lost 334,000 casualties themselves, not counting their losses taking Riga. But by the end, the Russians were deserting in massive numbers and, in some cases, killing their officers and rising in revolt against the Czar. In fact, civil unrest was growing and riots were becoming a daily occurrence in Moscow, Kiev, and Petrograd. For the Germans, they were just glad that the attacks had stopped and they would catch their breath. Guns were finally able to be transferred back to Verdun, where the fighting was just picking up.

The obvious defeat the Russians, and really all the Allies had suffered that year, drove the Romanians into the war and into the Central Powers. It was felt that Russia was about to collapse and now was the best time to grab Bessarabia, long promised by the Germans, and now the only piece of land that was likely to be had. On September 19th, the four Romanian armies crossed the Ukrainian border, with no Russian troops there to repel them. Odessa fell by the 27th, and the frontier was wide open. The entry of the Romanians proved to be the final nail in the coffin of the Russian empire, as the threat to the flank of the Southwest Front required a major pullback from the front, leaving Austria the master of the field. The Central Powers outnumbered the Russians on the southern front by over 2.5:1, meaning that there was simply nothing militarily that could be done to hold a coherent line. Pressure was building to end the war and remove the Czar. The Germans were still not able to take advantage of the situation in the east, as the Austrians and Romanians were, but the disintegration of the Russian army was obvious on all fronts. Even the Turks experienced the Caucasian army falling apart and deserting, finally giving them a chance to hold the line and advance in places.

October was a difficult month for the Czar, as the situation in Petrograd grew grimmer by the day. The empire was pulling apart at the seams, and his wife’s mystic, Rasputin, the man that was healing his son and giving advice on the conduct of the war, was murdered by a group of nobles that were fed up with his interference in the policies of the nation. By December, the Czar had been removed from command of the army and placed under guard “for his own protection”. Russia was nearing revolution, and the army no longer had faith in their monarch.

The entry of the Romanians into the war on the Central Power's side gave both Germany and Austria hope for the winter. Supplies of wheat and oil, purchased by the Allies and stockpiled were now available, but at a price of course. The Romanian crown was vilified in the west and by their allies for their mercenary behavior, but the king was laughing all the way to the bank, as his nation was paid twice for its commodities and even was given Bessarabia by their increasingly desperate allies. Bulgaria, not engaged on any front and able to resume agricultural activities since 1915 was able to supply both Austria and Germany with some extra food, and even began outsourcing some of its military and equipment for use by the Germans, who were eager to get the extra manpower and guns to hold quieter fronts in the west (as the Bulgarians refused to fight the Russians). Even the Greeks, who were becoming increasingly pro-german, but were not blockaded, were able to ship food to the Central Powers and in some cases, actually leased the use of some of their trains for use by the Austrians. These extra supplies, coupled with the limited production in captured territories in northern France and Belgium, eased the increasingly difficult food situation for both the Germans and the Austrians. Winter 1916-1917 was a lean one, but the no one was starving just yet. In fact, no one went particularly cold, as the mines in northern France were finally put into production against the will of the industrialists in Germany, with Russian POW labor, creating a tiny surplus that enabled factories to run longer hours.
 
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Valdemar II

Banned
Nice update, one of your earlier ideas I found interesting was the Belgian peace suggestion, if the Belgian king could get away from London (maybe to Netherland).
 
Have no problems with the general thrust of this. A few minor points. As I've mentioned before with an earlier end to Gallipoli Enver will be able to reinforce Third Army earlier and that alone will alter the Caucasian campaign.
At a minimum the Russians will not be able to take Ezerum.

The greatest economic asset of Russia in this period is their breadbasket, the Ukraine. With an opportunity to cut off a significant slice of this resource before the fall harvest, Falkenhayn would be eager to help a little. If nothing else he could contribute cavalry divisions which are not much use elsewhere. Probably a few armored trains as well. The CP should be able to penetrate as far east as Korosten and Zhitomir.
 

Deleted member 1487

Have no problems with the general thrust of this. A few minor points. As I've mentioned before with an earlier end to Gallipoli Enver will be able to reinforce Third Army earlier and that alone will alter the Caucasian campaign.
At a minimum the Russians will not be able to take Ezerum.

The greatest economic asset of Russia in this period is their breadbasket, the Ukraine. With an opportunity to cut off a significant slice of this resource before the fall harvest, Falkenhayn would be eager to help a little. If nothing else he could contribute cavalry divisions which are not much use elsewhere. Probably a few armored trains as well. The CP should be able to penetrate as far east as Korosten and Zhitomir.


I've kept deliberately vauge about the Ottoman fronts, because I am somewhat ignorant about that part of the war. However, I am struck by how the Turks were wiped out by the winter weather, year after year. So, though the extra reinforcements are available, I doubt they would have been able to advance against the Russians. They did manage to smash up the Turks pretty badly, which seemed to be regardless of the reinforcements (given the weather factor again). So, I am going to say that they are unable to really force through into Russia again, but the Russians are unable to do much either.

I may need to edit and put in a bit about the Cavalry, but I have read about their employment in the north too, so they might be wrapped up fighting around Minsk. I was unsure of when harvest was, so that adds in nicely too. And the loss of the breadbasket is going to kill much of the desire to fight in the war, as the starving population is not going to be to eager or able to sustain the fighting. But the beauty of vaugeness means I can still claim much of your suggestions are still happening :)
 
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