Alternate WW1-Realisitic (hopefully)

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Deleted member 1487

East 1915

The final months of 1914 were certainly more hopeful for the Habsburgs. The Germans had turned East and helped them save their fortress at Przemysl by December and throw the Russians out of most of Galicia.
This did not sit well with Conrad von Hötzendorff, the CinC of the Austrian army. He had been humiliated by the necessity of German intervention in Galicia and the repeated failures to crush the small state of Serbia. Aware that he had lost the faith of the Emperor, he strove to assert his power in his private fief, the army. Unfortunately for Franz Josef and Falkenhayn, Conrad had immense power within the military, which enabled him a bit of say in the political policy of the empire. OHL was quickly learning what Ober Ost had learned in October, namely that Conrad was obstinate only for the sake of maintaining pride. He refused any suggestion that he could get away with to demonstrate his independence, basically acting like an unruly teenager. What was worse was that his staff and indeed the upper echelons of his army thought he was a genius. Indeed he often had quite brilliant ideas, but just as often these plans had no basis in reality, as they did not take into account the capabilities of his army, terrain, or weather conditions. By the end of 1914 his military was entirely dependent on the Germans for success, but Conrad was completely unwilling to take a subordinate position that the situation dictated.

Obviously OHL found the situation galling, particularly as every suggestion and offer of help to retrain and prepare the Austrians for the coming campaign season was rudely refused. Not everyone in the Habsburg army felt this way, as Karl, the new heir to the throne repeatedly suggested to the Emperor that he remove Conrad. But Franz Josef was a weak ruler and let himself be brow beat into submission by the fiery Conrad. Despite hating the man personally and the condescending attitude he displayed, Franz Josef let the current state of affairs stand. Groener, the eminently quotable chief of railways, remarked dealing with the Austrians and their Schlamperei was like being chained to a mule. Falkenhayn finally grew fed up with the situation, as he was hoping to have the Austrians ready for 1915 so that he could transfer troops back west for an offensive. The Kaiser Wilhelm, completely devoted to Falkenhayn at this point, turned to Franz Josef on OHL’s request to convince him to sack Conrad. The process would be long and difficult, but the wheel was put in motion. In the meantime, Falkenhayn finally resigned his post as the head of the war ministry to silence the last grumblings within the Heer that he had too much power concentrated in his hands. Appointing a compatriot to the position, he essentially remained in charge in all but name. The dual control over the ministry and OHL gave him unprecedented power to get anything that he needed for the army. It also gave him control over the Kaiserliche Marine, which helped influence their policy and gave him a weapon to interdict the British in the Channel. Despite the renewed fighting in the West, Falkenhayn remained focused on the East, much to the chagrin of Ober Ost, now relegated to managing captured territory.

OHL was still concerned about the Russian presence in East Prussia and aimed to settle the situation up north. Using troops created in December from a reorganization of the divisions in the West, eight new divisions were formed with into the 11th army, now under the command of Leopold of Bavaria with the newly famous Hoffmann as his chief of staff. The 8th army was reinforced with men taken from the 9th army and prepared for battle. In March the 11th and 8th armies, bolstered by ammunition from the industrial programs enacted by Falkenhayn’s war ministry over the winter, launched the 2nd battle in the area of the Masurian lakes, as it was currently the front line, savaging and ejecting the Russians from Prussian territory. Far more successful than the previous offensive in the area, the Russians would not be able to threaten East Prussia from the Baltics for some time. More Russian prisoners headed to the cages, while more captured material and munitions went into the coffers of the equipment hungry German army. Hoffmann once again became famous in Berlin, his monocled face appearing in magazines across the city.

While this offensive was running its course, OHL was hard at work making decisions for the year. The Austrians had managed to recover from the hundreds of thousands of casualties the previous year, though it was an uncertain force after losing more than half of the prewar army. The new force had received new, modern weapons, and was more willing to cooperate with the Germans after threats were leveled by Falkenhayn concerning his support for another Galician offensive. But he made commitments to continue to fight in the East for the time being, a painful choice, as the West Front was still foremost in his strategy for the war.

The Ottomans had entered into the war, closing the Dardanelles to Allied shipping. The Russians were feeling the pinch after losing so much equipment the previous year, leaving many armies under strength in artillery. But the Western Allies had launched their own attack on Turkey, trying to storm the straights. Furthermore, the Turks had attacked Russia in the dead of winter in the Caucasus losing much of their army in the process. They needed material help badly. Not yet totally aware of the extent of the allied plans for Gallipoli, it was still obvious that a path to Turkey would need to be opened, but the only route lay through Serbia. Galicia remained partly under Russian control and needed to be cleared, as it was obvious the enemy would attack again in the region. Poland still served as a base for operations against Germany or the Habsburgs. With so many options OHL was inundated by plans by various armies under their command while their allies begged for help. The March reinforcements were mostly having to be deployed in the West, as the Allies continued to bash against the German lines their, so any action would need to be conducted with the troops already on the ground.

The Austrians were very eager to wrap up the Serbian adventure, more so than another offensive in Galicia, which made sense, considering that two armies were tied up there and Italy was making demands on territory as their price of neutrality. As the Habsburgs were not going to give in despite Falkenhayn’s suggestions to the contrary, the front needed to be resolved, either as a means of frightening the Italians into relaxing their demands, or to free up troops to man the border in case. But they could not conclude the front themselves, as the previous three offensives had shown. Most of the replacements that were raised over the winter had been sent to Galicia, so no new troops were available to change the force balance in the region. Bulgaria was a potential ally, but was proving cagey, as they refused to fight with the Austrians unless the Germans were also present. Falkenhayn finally agreed in March, ordering Mackensen to move to the theater to take command. Conrad protested this command structure, but a rare display of leadership, Franz Josef, under prompting by Kaiser Bill, ordered Conrad to agree. With the command problems finally resolved, the operation was further supplemented by troops taken from the 10th army in Galicia and East Prussia. The Bulgarians quickly agreed to an April start date after it became obvious that the Germans were ready for the campaign, they received a large gold bribe, and they were promised their greater Bulgarian borders, originally denied in the 19th century.

The operation kicked off by the 15th, the Serbian lines shattering shortly thereafter. The Bulgarians had proven slow to organize and advance, but once they swept along the largely undefended southern border, the campaign was quickly wrapped up. Serbian troops proved hard to pin down, as they consistently managed to evade the pursuing enemy, even managing to bring with them Austrian prisoners captured in 1914. Many died on their way south and through Albania, hunted by brigands and freezing in the mountain weather. Ultimately nearly 100,000 men made it to the coast to be evacuated by Allied ships and taken to the Greek island of Corfu. The Allies, despite their commitment in Gallipoli, had managed to land troops in the Greek city of Salonika, but in too few numbers to really prove a threat. The Bulgarians contained them easily, as the landings against the Turks had drained the allied reserves. The initial contingent consisted mainly of French soldiers, but over time men from all corners of the allied empires landed there growing their numbers considerably. Eventually the rehabilitated Serbian army was landed to maintain a presence in the Balkans. But for the moment, the Serbian nation was suffering under the Habsburg boot. By May a reliable rail link to Istanbul was established allowing the flow of shells to run uninterrupted. The Allied contingent at Gallipoli quickly became aware of the increasing in shelling from the heights above, increasing their casualties.

The Russians were no silent during this offensive, launching renewed attacks in Galicia and Poland. They found that the river front defenses of the Central Powers were up to the task and they only made shallow penetrations across in enemy lines. It was obvious that the enemy was well supplied with shell, a fact the new Russian levies lamented. The mostly untrained militias of the Russian interior had been called up to fight the Germans and Austrians, but found themselves under supplied and equipped by an uncaring command. Their lives were wasted in obscene numbers throughout the month of April, which only increased as the year went on. In July the Germans were ready for their next offensive, with their Habsburg allies eager to liberate their soil from the Russian invader. The Germans had managed to amass a stockpile of ammunition undreamt of by STAVKA, and they intended to use it.

The Austrians had added another army to Galicia, the 7th, formed from units taken from the Balkan force, plus newly formed units. The 5th and 6th armies were forced to move to the Italian border when that state declared war in May. The initial Italian offensives in June then turned into bloody failures, as the Austrians had the best positions and adequate men and guns to man them. Casualties quickly rose as the mountains of the Alps echoed with the sounds of the brutal slaughter on their slopes.

The Central Powers intended to crush the Russian ability to fight. Earlier in the year the Russians had signed a pledge to refrain from a separate peace and attempts by Falkenhayn to get Bethmann-Hollweg to offer a white peace were rebuffed by the Chancellor. He considered it a sign of weakness and frankly considered Falkenhayn a defeatist who him wanted replaced. His idol remained the H-L duo, which he wanted to promote. Bethmann-Hollweg would prove to be the most dangerous foe that Falkenhayn had, as he remained powerful politically and was necessary to implement his separate peace strategy to win the war. For the moment, OHL would just have to smash the Russian offensive power to be able to turn west. Their plan consisted of a giant pincer movement out of Galicia, with an Austrian branch toward the Bug river to liberate Lemberg while a German/Austrian force drove north along the Bug to reach Lublin.

In the north, the 8th and 9th armies would advance out of Prussia behind Warsaw to trap what forces they could in the bag. The Woyrsch detachment and new 12th army, formed from some of the new troops of the most recent unit creation, but relatively weak would drive forward to take Warsaw. The Nieman army, essentially a cavalry formation, would kick off the festivities by advancing into the gap in the Russians lines along the Baltic and capture the old fort of Libau, scarcely defended, but still threatening to shipping along the coast. This element of misdirection helped convince the Russians that the main attack would come in the north. This also played into their fears of an advance on Petrograd, which would severely disadvantage them when the heavy blow came in the center of the Russians lines in Galicia. Led by the reformed 10th army, commanded by Mackensen again, the Germans poured hundreds of thousands of shells into the Russian positions on the opposite banks of the San. Stunned and battered and torrents of screaming steel blasted flesh and bone to bloody pulp, the Russian soldier tried to hold, stubborn to a fault. Earth and limbs were thrown into the air and human debris littered the blasted ground as German and Austrian troops advanced over the river, often unopposed by anything living. To the South, the Austrians had a much harder time, sloppier in their execution than the meticulous Germans. It also didn’t help that the 8th army was led by the best Russian commander, Brusilov. Nevertheless, with their flank turned, the Russians had to pull back. The Austrian troops were pulled forward by the advance to their north, but soon they developed a quicker pace, taking Lemberg, the crowning achievement of Conrad, on the 23rd of June. Their advance soon slowed and stopped on the banks of the Bug, but most of Galicia was liberated, much to the delight of Franz Josef.

To the north in Poland proper, Mackensen and the supporting Austrians pushed ahead, stopping only to blast the next line of Russian positions, spending shells where the Russians spent lives. The blood price was high, and even the stoic peasantry of the east was forced to yield to the weight of fire that the Teutonic hordes commanded. Hundreds of thousands of prisoners had been taken by July 15th and Lublin had fallen. STAVKA rushed reinforcements south now, realizing they had been had, only to regret the decision, as the second part of the German advance started.

Emerging from the primeval forests and swamps of Prussia, the 11th, 8th and 9th armies pushed into Russian lines, launching salvos of equally intense weight to their southern cousins. The front was collapsing everywhere, as the fierce counterattacks by the desperate Russian commanders disintegrated in the fury of massed guns with nearly limitless supply. Kovno, Grodno, Bialystok, all names of fortresses that the Russians had expended vast sums to build all fell, rubble in most cases, as the survivors emerged punch-drunk to stumble into captivity. By August the front had collapsed and victorious German and Austrian troops took vast tracks of land, much of it leveled by Russian troops conducting a scorched earth campaign. The retreating armies had taken millions of refugees with them, but had no way to feed to pitiful masses of humanity, who died in droves.

The victorious invaders, raised on a Kultur of Arbeit, or German Work, were appalled by conditions in the East. It seemed to be full of dirt, poverty, and suffering. The people were primitives needing a firm hand of the cultured Germans to civilize them. At least this is the image that the commander of Ober Ost wanted to present. Left with little else to do other than manage the capture territory, Ludendorff turned them into his private, medieval fiefdom, which he ruled with an iron fist. His perception of the captured territories was obviously colored by his Prussian perception of what the Slav was and what his historic mission was. The damage wrought by the retreating Russians never entered into his mind as the cause of the desolation that was encountered. However, Ludendorff quickly managed to turn the devastated earth into a profitable colony of the Reich. Using brutality and colonists from Germany, the land, especially the Baltic states, with their ethnic German minority became a target for expansion. Land was cleared of it inhabitants and given to Germans or was created into large latifundas based on the Junker system in Prussia that the Baltic Germans turned into their fiefs, served by ethnic Balts. The Jews throughout the East also proved useful for the German armies, and often served as interpreters for the new regime, being fluent in a German dialect and the local language. They were to be a privileged minority resented by the locals and looked down upon by the ethnic Germans. Trapped between worlds, the Jewish communities in the German dominated regions did what they could to survive and prosper in this new world of Teutonic rule.

By the end of August, the Russians had stopped resisting, pulling back to the East. Falkenhayn was not interested in pursuing, allowing his men to advance to the limit of supply, but no further. Thousands of guns had been captured, allowing for entire armies to be reequipped with Russians artillery while the German weapons were brought into the OHL reserve to be used as deemed necessary. They had also inflicted over two million casualties on the Russians over the course of the invasion, not counting the failed Russian offensive earlier in the year. The battle had been fierce leaving the front line for the first time in traditionally Russian territory.

The Central Powers still had suffered too with hundreds of thousands of casualties, but few prisoners. They had built up breathing space for the coming year, something the Russians would try to contest. Production was increasing though, even without heavy imports being able to reach them. Soon enough shells and guns would be reaching the troops at the front, but the damage had been done. The prewar army was mostly gone and to make matters worse, their Russian army’s experienced leader, the Grand Duke, had been dismissed, replaced by the Czar. The suggestion of his wife’s mystic had caused this decision, which would ultimately prove disastrous for the nation and the army.
 
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Deleted member 1487

East 1915

ignore this
 
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I use Gallipoli as a catch all term for what I should have called the Dardenelles, and ANZACs were only about a 5th of the effort.
 

Deleted member 1487

The fear was that if they didn't do it and open up the straights, the Russians would drop out of the war, as they were being hammered and could not provide everything they needed in terms of shell and gun.
 
Board ate my reply

I will try again to post a shorter version.

When the rail line is opened to Istanbul the Dardanelles campaign becomes pointless. The key objective is Nish which did not fall until early Nov OTL.

I am a bit confused by your Eastern Front. I am not sure Falkenhayn would do 2nd Msurian Lakes. H+L attacked in a blizzard and took a lot of exposure casualties but L only reported combat casualties to make the battle seem like a bigger victory than it was. I am also unclear if Falkenhayn is trying a Grand Encirclement which in OTL he opposed.

Here is the account in Pollard which might be useful: http://www.ibiblio.org/HTMLTexts/Al...Short_History_Of_The_Great_War/chapter08.html

There is a common misperception that the Eastern Front went totally passive at the end of Sept 1915 (when German troops left both for the Balkan offensive and to counter Big Push in the West) The reality is that Kaiser W pressured Hindenburg to take Riga and Dvinsk both objectives frustrating him so much he threatened (again) to resign in Nov. Meanwhile SW Front went on the offensive taking Lutsk, Rovno and Tarnopol. Conrad eventually retook Lutsk but Brusilov held onto Rovno and Tarnopol which were important staging areas for his 1916 offensive.

While it is true that Falkenhayn did not want any deep penetration into Russia there were objectives that he did want that he did not get OTL: Riga, Dvinsk, Luninetz, Sarny and Rovno (ie. he wanted control on the main N/S rail line).
 

Deleted member 1487

No there is no great encirclement, as it was beyond the capabilities of the Central Powers both OTL and here. It basically is a rerun of the great retreat, but there is not Gorlice-Tarnow, as it happened in 1914. Even Falkenhayn's plan looked to be a pincer, just quite a bit shallower than the H-L idea. I am going to write some shorter pieces to clarify what has happened.
Good to know about the Masurian lakes. I might have to adjust the date to account for the weather, because the clearing of east Prussia was an important objective to the Germans.

I was a bit concerned about what to do without the Serbian campaign in October, but there really wasn't enough troops involved to tip the balance in the west. Instead its likely they will have to stay in the east to resolve some of the issues you mentioned Tom.
 
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Valdemar II

Banned
What effect does the occupation of more territorium in France has on the French manpover? How many French soldiers was drafted there in the later years of the war?
 

Deleted member 1487

Very good question. I've been able to acertain that about 3 million people lived in the captured areas of the pas-de-calais-nord/somme regions in 1914. This was nearly 10% of the population at the time and with the other captured departments, we are probably looking at nearly 12%+ of France's population under German control. However, this does not take into account the large numbers that fled the German advance in 1914 and those that managed to flee during the course of the. I'm willing to bet that around 9-10% remain under German control, as I doubt more than a million people fled from their homes. Nonetheless, housing is going to be trouble for the refugees, at least in the beginning. For the moment the French are going to be able to survive, manpower-wise, but it will be a factor later on. Additionally, I don't see the Germans having a problem putting the additional population to work, as now the Germans have overrun large numbers of coal and steel mines, and the entire French sugar beet industry. Farming is likely to be a major industry, which is close to the front and can help supply the German soldiers instead of having to bring in all the food from Germany proper. Northern France is some of the best farm land of the entire country, which is a massive boon to the Germans and a handicap to the French. Despite the nitrate issues, I could see the territory and population capture being a crucial factor in maintaining the food stores of the Central Powers, at least in the area. Without having to use extra rail capacity to bring in all food from the rural regions of Germany, the extra capacity can be put to use helping the Austrians or in some other capacity.

Correct me if I am wrong in my estimations.
 

Deleted member 1487

Thanks, it seems that you are pretty close on that one. It looks like the Germans have nearly 17% of the country's population and a sizable chunk of their industry. Not a good scenario, so perhaps in the beginning France is having trouble getting its economy in gear to fight. It's likely they are having a harder time massive guns for a breakthrough, meaning less casualites for the Germans. I guess 1915 wasn't so hard on the Central Powers. I might need to do some rewrites for the west now...
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Of course that will also affect France post-war with such a large part of the population almost free of the loss of young and middleage men.
 
????

Using the c1911 column numbers in populstat I get

Pas de Calais 1,068,200

Somme 520,200
Grand Total: 1,588,400

So the numbers being bandied about mystify me. OK I believe there was a sliver of the Nord department not controlled by the Germans OTL but I don't see how that makes a huge difference and besides they had a very small sliver of Somme and Pas de Calais OTL. And I don't think all of the Somme department is occupied TTL. Is there any big differences outside Pas de Calais and Somme that I am not getting.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Using the c1911 column numbers in populstat I get

Pas de Calais 1,068,200

Somme 520,200
Grand Total: 1,588,400

So the numbers being bandied about mystify me. OK I believe there was a sliver of the Nord department not controlled by the Germans OTL but I don't see how that makes a huge difference and besides they had a very small sliver of Somme and Pas de Calais OTL. And I don't think all of the Somme department is occupied TTL. Is there any big differences outside Pas de Calais and Somme that I am not getting.

Look at Department du Nord
 

Deleted member 1487

Look at Department du Nord

Not only that, but also the Aisne, Alrdennes, Meuse, Meurthe-et-Moselle, and Moselle. Though most of these are only partially controlled, they do represent several million more than just the Nord, Pas-de-Calais, and Somme departments.

The numbers that are being quoted are the total number of inhabitants of the regions controlled by the Germans, not just the difference between TTL and OTL. But these numbers do no account for refugees that fled in 1914 or continue to escape over the course of the war. To be conservative, lets say about 4 million people are left after refugees, so about 10% of the population is out of French control.
 
Not only that, but also the Aisne, Alrdennes, Meuse, Meurthe-et-Moselle, and Moselle. Though most of these are only partially controlled, they do represent several million more than just the Nord, Pas-de-Calais, and Somme departments.

I am trying to get a handle on the delta from OTL. I went through this once with Operation Unicorn (which has some differences from your TL) and came to the conclusion it was between 2.3 and 2.5M.
 

Deleted member 1487

I am trying to get a handle on the delta from OTL. I went through this once with Operation Unicorn (which has some differences from your TL) and came to the conclusion it was between 2.3 and 2.5M.

Are the 2.3-2.5 numbers the total controlled by Germany OTL or in Unicorn?
 
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