Alternate WW1-Realisitic (hopefully)

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Deleted member 1487

Alright, I feel comfortable to finally start this TL, now that school is over. Basically I am going to be detailing the whole war and the post war, which should take me a while. Please give feed back, as, though my research has been broad, the TL is an attempt at realism. Help me make it right!

Anyway, I will mostly be focusing on Germany and the decisions and strategies immediately affecting her. The war at sea and the peripheral theaters will be neglected, mentioned in passing really, only when they are necessary to the overall plot.
The POD is that Moltke falls down a flight of stairs on the 18th of August 1914 and breaks his neck. Falkenhayn is put in command earlier, with noticeable results almost immediately. My interpretation of the man is according to Robert Foley's: German Strategy and the Path to Verdun, which I feel fully explores the complexities of this misunderstood commander. The first part will be posted shortly.
 

Deleted member 1487

accident and prelude

The sudden death of Helmuth von Moltke on the night of the 18th of August was the most decisive moment in modern history, Winston Churchill would later write in his history of the Great War. Certainly it seemed an ominous omen for Germany. Though the Kaiser was informed within minutes of the fatal fall, the general public remained in the dark until much later. Even when the newspapers were allowed to report it, the details were shrouded in mystery, as it was deemed unbecoming for the most senior officer of the Reichsheer to succumb to a fall down a flight of stairs. His death was a well-kept secret, so much so that the Allies were not even aware of the change in command until October.
In the meantime, the various officers actually running the war were anxious while waiting the Kaiser’s decision for Moltke’s replacement. Tappen, Hentsch, Groener and the rest were shocked and dismayed by the news, which came at startling speed from Berlin. Until now they had actually run much of the war themselves, with Moltke acting as a bystander most of the time. Eric von Falkenhayn was their collective fear. The minister of war represented a threat to their power and most of OHL resented his presence up to this point in Koblenz. In fact he was purposely kept in the dark to what was exactly happening at the front. It was felt that the minister should be in Berlin where his duties were. Additionally, some of the distain for Falkenhayn had to do with the suspicion that he was the Kaiser’s spy meant to keep tabs on them. Moltke and his staff had felt that the Kaiser was a buffoon and as Falkenhayn was his picked man, having been selected over the heads of many more experience and senior officers for his post in the war ministry, he was viewed in the same light.
Falkenhayn was a man apart from the traditional General Staff officers. He was handsome, well traveled, and bitingly sarcastic, all features that would serve to alienate Moltke’s staff and cause bitter arguments. The first power struggle was not long in coming, as the new commander sought to break up the clique dominating the war planning. The heads of the Operations, Intelligence, Political, and Central Sections (Tappen, Hentsch, Dommes, and Fabeck) of the staff had dominated OHL to the point that Moltke had essentially just confirmed their decisions. Falkenhayn proceeded to break up the group and express that his command would be the only one to be obeyed. This came as a relief to many including Max Bauer, who described the chief of operations as “stupid, arrogant, and ignorant” among other things. But he had alienated several important individuals, who would attempt to obstruct their commander at several crucial junctures in the coming weeks.
Battle of the Frontiers
At the front, the war was just heating up. The fall of Liege had occurred on the 16th and the German army was advancing through Belgium. In Alsace-Lorraine, the French invasion was going badly, with casualties running into the hundreds of thousands. Prince Rupprecht, the commander of the 6th army was demanding permission to launch counter attacks and resume the offensive. Moltke was reluctantly about to give permission, but Falkenhayn was a bit more cautious. Ultimately he gave his assent, but began having Groener plan transfer the 7th army north to reinforce the right wing. Additionally, Falkenhayn had committed the 6 ½ Ersatz divisions tasked with guarding the communication lines in Belgium to the siege at Antwerp. It would take days to conduct the transfers, but the plans were in motion. On the 20th the 6th army threw the French 2nd army out of northern Alsace-Lorraine and caused the withdrawal of the 1st army of Pau to withdraw from the recently captured Mulhouse, as his flank became exposed. By the 22nd the invasion of Germany had returned to its kick off position along the Moselle. The battle of the Ardennes had started on the 21st, as the French 3rd and 4th armies advanced on Neufchateau and bumped into German forces of the 4th and 5th armies, who had methodically advanced through the forest since the 19th. By the 22nd the main forces had come into contact and vicious battles erupting all along the line. Hungry for glory, Rupprecht demanded an additional offensive to smash through the French line.
Further north, the German 2nd and 3rd armies made contact with the French 5th army, which had concentrated on the town of Charleroi. Weakened by transfers of troops and artillery to the invasion of Alsace-Lorraine, the French were sandwiched between two opposing, stronger armies that proceeded to push back and attempted to cut off the French forces. Ultimately unsuccessful, thanks to quick action by Franchet d’Esperey’s corps, the French fell back in disorder on the 23rd. The German 1st army had contacted advanced elements of the BEF on the 22nd and engaged the smaller army on the 23rd. Despite giving the Germans a bloody nose, the BEF withdrew on the 24th as the French 5th army had unexpected fallen back without prior notification.
Aware of battles being fought all along the frontier, Falkenhayn was incensed that OHL had only a vague impression of the situation. As a commander, he was uncomfortable with the concept of Aufträgstaktik and sought a firmer grip on the course of the fighting. The solution to this issue was to move OHL further west, closer to the front. Luxembourg would be the ultimate destination, despite the fears of many on the staff that the HQ would be too near the front. Furthermore, junior officers were dispatched to the various HQ’s of the armies operating on the Western Front with the conceptual overview of Falkenhayn’s war plan and orders to enforce his will. Ostensibly only observers, each man was provided with an aerial “courier” to dispatch important information to OHL and orders. Colonel Hentsch was tasked with the coordination of the incoming information from these sources and would eventually be dispatched himself to coordinate the right wing of the advance. The assignment would detach him from the clique that had given Falkenhayn concern.
Plan of Action
Each man was presented with Falkenhayn’s strategy to help them regulate the army commanders that each would be assigned to. Worried about a mess of independent action impeding the overall strategy during this vast war of movement, each officer was to enforce Falkenhayn’s vision in their various assignments. Committed to Moltke’s large flanking maneuver, the right wing, comprising the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd armies were to project wide around much of the front and encircle Paris and take the French army in the rear. This was the knock out blow that was to finish the war in the West and allow Germany to engage Russia on better terms. But the center would have to do it’s part and wheel around the fortified area of Verdun, separating and destroying the French 3rd and 4th armies, while taking the 1st and 2nd armies in the rear while the 6th army would serve as its fixing force. The 7th army was being transferred north to serve as a reserve to assist in the looping attack of the right wing as it descended on Paris and the furthest flank of the French forces. Transient battlefield opportunities would not be tolerated, the overall battle plan must be maintained. Spacing and direction would be crucial and it would be up to these junior officers to help their commanders to remain in line.
Already Rupprecht threatened to upset things by launching a full scale attack into the heart of the French fortifications and sustain a repeat of what he had just inflicted on the enemy on his own army. This would be unacceptable, but small scale offensives with limited objectives to pin some of the French troops would be tolerated. Ultimately it would be up to the dispatched junior officer to make sure that Rupperecht would not overstep his authorized actions.
The junior officers would all be in place by the 24th, the last arriving at the 1st army in the afternoon. This new arrangement would not be well received in the various HQ’s but the success of the measure would not be felt for some time.
 

Deleted member 1487

This is essentially a rough draft, as I have left much out during the time period that this covers. Any specific feedback?
 
This timeline seems to be pretty interesting and original, and unlike most timelines i'm reading it eagerly. My only complaint seems to be the Paris offensive; at this pace Paris would fall within days, even though the Allies are outnumbered *only* 2:1. The fall of Paris would mean instant GG for france it seems, and that would be boring.

To heaten it up, i'd suggest that the Russians aren't retarded like in OTL (as for example avoiding the massacre in Tandenberg forest), possibly causing greater damage on the Eastern front.

Also, it would be interesting if you did something with italy, because as you know they had two alliances with both Germany and France, the most obvious change being honouring the Tripple Alliance, further pressuring France and giving the Royal Navy some extra headache in the Medditerranean, thus increasing the odds of a German victory at Jutland.
 
This timeline seems to be pretty interesting and original, and unlike most timelines i'm reading it eagerly. My only complaint seems to be the Paris offensive; at this pace Paris would fall within days, even though the Allies are outnumbered *only* 2:1. The fall of Paris would mean instant GG for france it seems, and that would be boring.
Actually... we've had discussions in this forum about just what effects a fall of Paris in 1914 really would have, and it's not a given that France is out just because the City falls.
 
in hindsight, you're right. in ww1 the french were awesome fighters (for once), and had the by far greatest sacrifice in blood in percentage of population. Maybe the fall of Paris does the exact oposite of what it did in WW2, possibly just awaking much greater patriotism in the french people.
 

Deleted member 1487

No, Paris won't fall. There is simply no way that it could have happened and I will explain why in excruciating detail. Also, Falkenhayn has just alienated the entire German army by throwing the excepted methodology of Scharnhorst out the window on a whim. He has an ugly power struggle (well several actually) coming up, worse than OTL. While I am planning his control of the war effort for the duration, he won't always have control of planning and execution.

Never fear, Germany will be in a better place strategically by the end of 1914 than historically, but not unrealistically so, and Austria might actually be in a worse place, but I haven't decided just yet how much based off of the situation at the end of the year. I am still fighting this out in my head and reading a lot. Bear with me, this is going to take a while. Also be prepared for retcons, perhaps many.
 
I'm glad you're taking all perspectives into account, instead of making a "GERMNAY STEEMROLL'D PARIS. ALLAID POWRS SURRENDER AND R OCCUPAID BAI GERMANY WITHIN 2 MINUTES" - thread.
Some things that didn't favour the central powers favour them here, while other advantages they had in OTL aren't apparent. It's interesting! continue the timeline plox.
 
Would you mind formatting it a bit? some well spaced paragraphs, bolded or underlined headings would make it a lor more readble.
 
A very interesting start. If Falkenhayn has the determination and the ability to implement these changes early on I can foresee a much better German response along the Western Front. Key will be keeping the commanders in line as they have a habit of doing what they think is best without prior permission.

As for your hint that the Germans will be in a stronger position come 1915 I'm curious what your ideas are. More troops and valuable land captured are possibilities. OTL the Germans captured nearly all of the French industry early on appart from the Rhone Valley and the Pas de Calis so perhaps the Germans could take the latter? That would cause some major problems. Imagine the British fear that a German invasion could be imminent! Capturing the BEF would also be a major boost propaganda wise. Not to mension Verdun. If they could take that early that's one more blow to the French. A string of victories like that and a Tannenburg (which is almost impossible to change with such a late POD) would have French moral to very low levels. Avoiding a Miricle on the Marne would also be useful thinking about it so maybe the Germans give up on Paris for the Pas de Calis region?
 

Deleted member 1487

Kvasir;2453890 As for your hint that the Germans will be in a stronger position come 1915 I'm curious what your ideas are. More troops and valuable land captured are possibilities. OTL the Germans captured nearly all of the French industry early on appart from the Rhone Valley and the Pas de Calis so perhaps the Germans could take the latter? That would cause some major problems. Imagine the British fear that a German invasion could be imminent! Capturing the BEF would also be a major boost propaganda wise. Not to mension Verdun. If they could take that early that's one more blow to the French. A string of victories like that and a Tannenburg (which is almost impossible to change with such a late POD) would have French moral to very low levels. Avoiding a Miricle on the Marne would also be useful thinking about it so maybe the Germans give up on Paris for the Pas de Calis region?[/quote said:
The Germans can't have all the advantages! Yes they will capture more and may suffer slightly less after the TTL Marne, but even Falkenhayn believed in the short war idea until the end of the race to the sea. Some analog of the Marne will happen as any general worth his salt would aim to win the war if he thought he could. He will discover though that winning like this will not be as easy at he thought. Remember right now the French have the best artillery piece for swirling mobile battles and they intend to use it!

As far as the loss of industry goes, OTL the French lost roughly 20% of their plus 90% of their iron and 75% of their coal deposits. If they have Paris and imports they can survive. The Germans were in an awkward position with relation to the captured coal. The mines were too close to the front, so they blew them up and flooded them, concerned as they were with the Allies using the tunnels to pop up behind their lines. Here they are going to have a bit more breathing room to use those mines, which should ease their situation at home later war a bit.
 
The Germans can't have all the advantages! Yes they will capture more and may suffer slightly less after the TTL Marne, but even Falkenhayn believed in the short war idea until the end of the race to the sea. Some analog of the Marne will happen as any general worth his salt would aim to win the war if he thought he could. He will discover though that winning like this will not be as easy at he thought. Remember right now the French have the best artillery piece for swirling mobile battles and they intend to use it!

As far as the loss of industry goes, OTL the French lost roughly 20% of their plus 90% of their iron and 75% of their coal deposits. If they have Paris and imports they can survive. The Germans were in an awkward position with relation to the captured coal. The mines were too close to the front, so they blew them up and flooded them, concerned as they were with the Allies using the tunnels to pop up behind their lines. Here they are going to have a bit more breathing room to use those mines, which should ease their situation at home later war a bit.

So the Germans head for Paris but get repelled :cool: and reminiscent of OTL but I suspect the French are in a significantly worse position than historically. I'm interested in seeing 1) How many Entente troops the CP capture and 2) How much land they can hold after the race to the sea. These variables are perhaps the most important in extrapolating the next 4 years. After all once the trenches are set it'll be hard to move them.

If the Germans can acheive a stable front containing more territory then will it be longer or shorter and therefore how many troops are needed to defend it? That assumes the Germans turn East after the front's solidification and allow the French and British to bleed themselves white. If Falkenhayn wants to go on the offensive then I foresee a swifter Entente victory.

Still this story seems like a good one to keep my eye on ;)
 
The so called Schlieffen Plan had two objectives: destroy most of the French Army in a SuperCannae and take Paris. The combination of those two would indeed knock France out of the war but not simply taking Paris alone (some alt historians get this wrong)

At some point Falkenhayn is going to run into logisitical problems that are going to prevent #1 from succeeding.

Any scenerio where the Germans take most or all of the Pas de Calais is probably going to knock Belgium out of the war (even though it did not in Operation Unicorn ;))
 
Chained to a Corpse

In regards to what might happen in the East, perhaps you could create a Russian offensive in Austrian territory that is more successful than the original. The Russians had the Austrians on the ropes early on and the Austrians were ultimately saved by the German victories in East Prussia. Perhaps this eastern scenario would put a halt to Germany's drive in the West as even more troops than in the OTL are entrained to the East.
 

Deleted member 1487

The so called Schlieffen Plan had two objectives: destroy most of the French Army in a SuperCannae and take Paris. The combination of those two would indeed knock France out of the war but not simply taking Paris alone (some alt historians get this wrong)

At some point Falkenhayn is going to run into logisitical problems that are going to prevent #1 from succeeding.

Any scenerio where the Germans take most or all of the Pas de Calais is probably going to knock Belgium out of the war (even though it did not in Operation Unicorn ;))


Oh I intend to include a nod to Unicorn, as it has a similar situation on the continent. Belgium is going to be knocked out for all intents, but the King will keep the resistance alive in Britain (whatever that means). The 6.5 erstaz divisions that were sent to Alsace OTL are instead going to Antwerp, which will help cover the city better than the screening forces there OTL.

In regards to what might happen in the East, perhaps you could create a Russian offensive in Austrian territory that is more successful than the original. The Russians had the Austrians on the ropes early on and the Austrians were ultimately saved by the German victories in East Prussia. Perhaps this eastern scenario would put a halt to Germany's drive in the West as even more troops than in the OTL are entrained to the East.

The 2 corps transferred East in August OTL will not be sent here, as Falkenhayn had steadier nerves than Moltke, but that will come with grave consequences for the Austrians.
 
in hindsight, you're right. in ww1 the french were awesome fighters (for once), and had the by far greatest sacrifice in blood in percentage of population. Maybe the fall of Paris does the exact oposite of what it did in WW2, possibly just awaking much greater patriotism in the french people.

What do you mean, "for once"? The French have been kicking ass on the Continent longer than any other nation! 1940 is not representative of what the French truly can do, remember they are the people who marched across Europe under Napoleon and won the Thirty Years' War, amongst other things.

@wiking: Nice TL, I can't wait for more, especially how the Battle of Paris will look like.
 

Art

Monthly Donor
Falkenhayn? The idiot who commanded the Turkish army and got the crap beat out of him by Allenby?
 

Deleted member 1487

Falkenhayn? The idiot who commanded the Turkish army and got the crap beat out of him by Allenby?


Allenby had pretty much every advantage one could imagine. The Turkish army was falling apart and Falkenhayn arrived after the battle had already started. No one could have salvaged that situation. Oh an Allenby was one of the best generals of the Allies.
 
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