Keep up the good work our wonderful Canadian trio.

Aside from your constitutional squabbles, which I love, I've never been too interested in your actual politics, but Canadian
elections are another thing entirely.

They can just become so unpredictable and chaotic. It's harder to do that in the United States, but I did my best after mulling over
this old thread.
President Gore is killed during 9/11. President Lieberman is initially very popular, but by 2004 he has proved more divisive than any President in decades. The surprise victory of the Two Pauls (Ron Paul and Wellstone) in Iowa showed that the public had soured on the wars in Sudan and Yemen. Lieberman was extremely frustrated that the more successfully concluded wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon that so helped the party in the 2002 midterms were forgotten. By G-d, we got a public option and a lowering of the Medicare age out of that majority! And nobody even talked about Libya, the smoothest intervention of all, crown jewel of the Arab Spring. Paul Wellstone had betrayed America as soon as he voted against the PATRIOT Act. After Wellstone's death before the New Hampshire primary, Russ Feingold filled his shoes, which was even worse, as he actually had the stamina to mount a serious presidential campaign. If he lost to Feingold, an independent campaign would be the campaign that America deserves, and more importantly, the campaign his Democratic Party deserves. Secretary of State John McCain would be a fine running mate indeed.
Lieberman ends up doing better in his party's primary than Rudy Guliani, though. Meanwhile, the current Republican New York Mayor sees an inevitable Paulslide as nothing short of a disaster, as America for Lieberman ensures the Republican nominee of a landslide even if he is the antipathy of everything Bloomberg stands for. It takes some persuasion to draft thethe heir of the Republican presidential family that was robbed of victory by Democratic treachery in Florida only four years previously to save the country. Secretly, Bloomberg hopes to become Acting President, as everyone expects the House to deadlock between pro-and anti-Paul Republicans with the announcement of Jeb Bush's run as an independent. But he is too clever by half. While Feingold is a very attractive candidate to liberals, why wouldn't voters in the populous states like New York, California, and Illinois just go for the real thing in Ralph Nader? He ran a very strong campaign in 2000. After all, the thing is going to go to Congress anyways, right?
Wrong. Turns out the election was shorter than 2000 after all. Lieberman had managed to pass Gore's attempted election law reforms (Republicans had stonewalled pretty much everything Gore wanted in a fury over Florida) in 2002 with his post-9/11 political capital, which made the fact that every state was too close to call more bearable. By December, the victor was clear when the recount in Texas ended and it was found it had opted for a favorite son over the brother of the former governor by 1,913 votes.
Everyone underestimated the ferocity and novelty of the Paul campaign. The campaign use of grassroots supporters reminded many of the 1964 Goldwater campaign, but its use of the internet was revolutionary. Paul was able to win the Republican-leaning anti-war vote, particularly in the Western states. The October Surprise 2004 legalization of gay marriage (Sandra Day O'Connor had retired mid-way through the primaries, preferring that Lieberman name her successor instead of Paul) ultimately helped Paul more than any other candidate among traditional Republican voters who might have been inclined to vote for Bush. Coming so close to the election was seen as extremely political (today it's right up there with
Bush v. Gore due to the timing), and nobody attacked the activist court as savagely as Paul, who advocated for the privatization of all marriage in response. Republicans approved; this was simpler and more to many real conservatives than Bush's call for a Constitutional Amendment. But Paul could not have won without some key blue states, which were won based on the division of the moderate vote between Bush and Lieberman, and the balkanization of the left-wing vote between Lieberman, Feingold, and Nader.
Russ Feingold had done about the best he could. He carried his own Wisconsin, the late Wellstone's Minnesota, Rhode Island, and most notably, the South. This was primarily due to Wellstone having the strong support of African-Americans in those states, but it was certainly historical to have those states go to a liberal Democratic and Jewish candidate. The entrance of Bush into the race hurt Feingold with college liberals and leftists, who saw Feingold as the likely winner of a deadlocked election. In the end, too many of them voted for "Nader in November, and Feingold in January." This made the difference in California, New York, Illinois, and Pennsylvania, where Feingold placed second. Had Feingold won all of those states, which were all extremely close, he would have won 288 electoral votes.
Joe Lieberman was unpopular with Republicans and half of the Democratic Party, but he was still fairly popular with actual independents. He campaigned as if he was the incumbent of a united party, and placed second in the popular vote. He carried his native Connecticut, McCain's Arizona, independent-happy Maine, military-base heavy Hawaii, New Jersey (the only state where he won a plurality of the Jewish vote instead of Feingold. Mike Bloomberg helped Bush do fairly well in this demographic as well), as well as some surprise states where Feingold and Nader both underperformed and Paul and Bush split the Republican-leaning vote.
Jeb Bush won the popular vote, and ran his campaign as if he would win the electoral vote. He was very close in many states, running second or a close third, but ultimately only won Ohio, Florida, Utah, and Massachusetts, certainly an unusual grouping of states. Ohio was the only state where Bush's style of campaign actually paid off. Florida could arguably be lumped in that category as well, but Bush was always at an advantage there due to his popularity as governor. Utah proved rather hostile to every candidate but Bush, while Massachusetts was the reverse: everyone did rather evenly there, and Bush happened to squeak through.
Ralph Nader's reputation completely changed as a result of the election. Based on his strong performance from 2000, the Green Party welcomed him back with open arms. He selected the Mayor of San Francisco as his running mate. He embarrassed Feingold by winning Washington, D.C. based on the promotion of DC statehood. Aside from this special focus on his main residence, Nader concentrated his campaign on the most populous states, to great success. Too much success. Nader was attacked for throwing the states, and the election to Paul. To the amazement of many of his own supporters, Nader not only refuted the allegations, but said he welcomed Paul's election based on his foreign policy and corporate welfare issues. Most disturbingly to Nader voters was the candidate's insistence that Paul was preferable to even Feingold on these issues. The Green Party had overcome that magic 5%, but they had lost their star forever. The Nader made famous by
Unsafe at Any Speed was unrecognizable after 2004. President Paul would name Nader to head a special committee investigating corporate welfare. Nader had been hoping for the head of the EPA, or Secretary of Transportation, or even Ambassador to the United Nations, but President Paul left all of those positions vacant.