The 2012 Czechoslovak parliamentary election was held on the 26th February 2012 to elect the 300 members of the Czechoslovak National Assembly. It was the first snap election since 1996, and was called by the OLS-led government of Iveta Radičová, which was seeking a fourth term.
The Great Recession’s impact on Czechoslovakia had deepened since the 2008 election, and many voters had started to blame Radičová and the OLS’s continued austerity economics more for this, particularly after she started to vocally clash with new President Miloš Zeman once he was elected in 2010. Zeman advocated for more interventionist economics and against bailouts for banks and other large companies, claiming he supported ‘socialism for the poor’ while Radičová’s government was trying to implement ‘socialism for the rich’.
Radičová also faced challenges from within her party, most notably two leadership contests with ideological opponents. In 2009 she was challenged by Karel Schwarzenberg over what he saw as her ‘unreasonable closeness’ to President Klaus at the expense of the moderate wing of the OLS, and in 2011 Andrej Babiš challenged her after it became clear she had suppressed corruption allegations into the government and the OLS in particular. She survived both these challenges, but they led the two men to negotiate to form a new centrist coalition opposed to the two major parties, as the OLS had in the early 1980s.
Schwarzenberg and Babiš reached out to several other populist businessmen and politicians like Radek John, Richard Sulík and Tomio Okamura for their funding and support, and formed the Direct Democratic Party (Czech:
Přímá demokratická strana, Slovak:
Priama demokratická strana, PDS) in the summer of 2011. The DDS’s members differed in political views on a large number of issues (for example, Schwarzenberg and Babiš were adamantly pro-European while Okamura was vocally Eurosceptic), but were united by their support for direct democracy, as well as benefitting from a massive amount of funding from their extremely rich leadership.
The OLS was also significantly threatened from outside the government, as the ČSSD’s new leader Bohuslav Sobotka was far less antagonistic towards the more centrist and centre-left parties than his predecessors Fico and Beňová had been, but was also conciliatory towards Zeman even when they personally disagreed on political issues. This and the implosion of the OLS after the PDS’s formation allowed the ČSSD to establish consistent leads in the polls from late 2009 onwards.
A major event precipitating the election was the death of former Prime Minister and President Václav Havel in December 2011. After Radičová gave a very well-received speech at his memorial service in January 2012, she announced in the last week of that month that she had requested President Zeman dissolve the Assembly. Most observers expected Radičová to wait until the Assembly’s term expired in September to call an election, but her personal popularity had started to improve after this speech, and it was speculated she had chosen now to dissolve the Assembly because it would allow the party to incur the least losses.
Ironically, this speculation led to severe criticism from the opposition parties, with PDS leader Schwarzenberg giving an impassioned speech condemning her ‘opportunism’ over a man who he had always been closer to than her (having been a senior advisor to Havel during his presidency). The OLS’s polling numbers subsequently collapsed back to their previous lows, and in the last two weeks of the election the PDS overtook the OLS and started to close in on the ČSSD's lead.
The election saw a massive defeat for the OLS and ČSL after nine years in government. The OLS lost 69 seats and for the first time since it was founded was not one of the two largest parties in the Assembly, while the ČSL lost more than two thirds of its seats. The PDS took 95 seats, the best performance for a new party in Czechoslovak history, though the ČSSD emerged with 105, making it the largest party. Consequently, Sobotka claimed a mandate to serve as Prime Minister over Schwarzenberg (helped by the PDS’s acrimonious relationship with the OLS and ČSL), and was able to negotiate the formation of a ‘left coalition’ with the ČSNS, DSS, Coexistence and the Greens that controlled 150 seats, seeking support from members of the PDS and ČSL to provide a tiebreaking vote on certain issues. However, some members of the PDS, particularly Okamura, vocally opposed this settlement, which would cause the new opposition to fracture during the 2012-16 term.