I did a thing. I hate it.
College Football 2037
This isn't really a prediction so much as a possible future. Briefly what happened - The Big 12 keeps together as long as possible to keep getting Texas/OU benefited TV money and than their buyout. The BIG decided they need to be bold to keep up with the SEC and raids the PAC. PAC leftover and Big 12 leftovers merge. The Sunbelt take who they want from Conf USA (though later losses App St to the AAC). MAC takes some Conf USA leftovers. When the ACC grant of rights ends the BIG and SEC divide it between them (with a couple of leftovers picked up by the AAC). The PAC/Big 12 leftovers take Mt. West schools to make numbers under the new tiered conference playoff scheme.
Conferences
Tier One Conferences
Big 10 (or dare I say 24? or simply “The BIG”) -
West – California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington
Midwest – Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Mideast – Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St.
East – Maryland, Pittsburgh, Penn St, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia
SEC -
A – Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
B – LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Texas A+M
C – Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
D – Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
E – Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St.
F – Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech
Tier Two conferences
Western Football Alliance -
Pacific – Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Oregon St, Utah, Washington St
Mountain – Boise St, Colorado St, New Mexico, San Diego St, UNLV, Wyoming
Central – Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas St, OSU, TCU, Texas Tech
AAC -
West - Houston, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa
North - Boston College, Liberty, Temple, West Virginia
Central - Appalachian St, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis
South - Central Florida, East Carolina, South Florida, Wake Forest
Tier Three Conferences
Sunbelt -
East - Florida Atlantic, FIU, Georgia Southern, Georgia St
North - Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion
South - South Alabama, Southern Miss, Troy, UAB
West - Arkansas St, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas St.
MAC -
East – Buffalo, Connecticut, Marshall, Massachusetts
North - C. Michigan, E. Michigan, Toledo, W. Michigan
South - Akron, Bowling Green, Kent St, Ohio
West - Ball St, Miami (OH), N. Illinois, W. Kentucky
Mountain West -
West - Fresno St, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico St, San Jose St, Utah St.
East - Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Rice, Sam Houston St, Nicholls St, UTSA
Independent:
Army, Air Force, BYU, Navy, Notre Dame
Playoffs:
Officially it is a 16 team playoff, though the play-ins make a 18 team playoff, and then the conference championship games for tier 2 and 3 conferences are quasi play-ins (or play-in play-ins). Rankings are done by a playoff committee with 12 members – 8 members represent tier one conference schools, 1 represents Notre Dame, 2 represent tier two conference schools, 1 represent tier three conference schools.
The first 2 rounds will be played at the home fields of the higher seeded team. Semi-finals and finals are on neutral sites.
To keep the number of game manageable the tier one conferences don't have title games, other conferences do but play one fewer regular season game. The official conference champion of the tier 1 conferences is the highest ranked division winner. SEC divisions are temporary, formed each year by which pods are crossing over.
Automatic qualifiers to playoffs:
The highest ranked BIG division winner and highest ranked SEC crossover division winner. These schools will also receive the 1st and 2nd seeds in the tourney.
The 2nd highest ranked BIG division winner and 2nd highest ranked SEC crossover division winner. These schools are guaranteed to be seeded no lower than 7th and 8th (higher if their ranking is higher).
The highest ranked conference champion of tier 2 conferences. This school is guaranteed to be seated no lower than 8th (higher if their ranking is higher).
The highest ranked independent school, if they are ranked in the top 14.
The other tier 2 conference champion, if they are ranked in the top 14.
The highest ranked tier 3 conference champion, if they are top 14.
The other 2 BIG division winners and the other SEC division winner and highest ranked SEC non-division winner, if they are ranked in the top 20.
Rest filled by at large selections.
Automatic qualifiers to play-ins:
The other tier 2 conference champion, if they are not ranked in the top 14 or qualified as an at-large. If they are, then the highest ranked tier 2 non-champion takes the spot (unless such a school is in the main playoff as at large in which case this spot reverts to an at large selection). Gets a home game for the play-in. Seeded based on ranking of highest ranked team in game (made before game).
The highest ranked tier 3 conference champion, if not qualified to playoff. If they are spot goes to 2nd highest ranked tier 3 conference champion, if not qualified to playoff. If they are spot goes to the remaining tier 3 conference champion, if not qualified to playoff. If they are goes to highest ranked tier 3 non-champion, if not qualified to playoff. If they are than spot reverts to at-large. Gets a home game for the play-in. Seeded based on ranking of highest ranked team in game (made before game).
Two visiting schools are 2 highest ranked remaining BIG or SEC division winners (or highest non-division SEC school) if not qualified to playoff, if top 25, otherwise chosen at large.
Playoff Example using 2020 -
Non obviously it wouldn't be quite like this given different schedules and 2020 was an odd year anyways thinks to covid, but using 2020 as an example of what the playoff would look like (SEC crossovers A/B, C/D, E/F, G/H) – (Realistically I'd also expect the committee to show even more disrespect for lower tier conference schools but this is not depicted) -
seed) School (rank, method)
1) Alabama (1, SEC highest ranked division winner)
16) USC (17, 3rd highest ranked BIG division winner)
8) Northwestern (14, 2nd highest BIG division winner)
9) Florida (7, At-large, SEC)
4) Notre Dame (4, qualified top independent)
13) Coastal Carolina (12, qualified tier 3 champ)
5) Texas A+M (5, 3rd highest ranked SEC division winner)
12) Indiana (11, at-large, BIG)
3) Clemson (2, 2nd highest ranked SEC division winner)
14) Winner of play-in game 1
6) Oklahoma (6, highest ranked non SEC division winner)
11) Iowa St. (10, other tier 2 champ, WFA)
7) Cincinnati (8, top tier 2 champ, AAC)
10) Georgia (9, at-large, SEC)
2) Ohio St. (3, BIG highest ranked division winner)
15) Winner of play-in game 2
Play-in 1 -
North Carolina (13, at-large, SEC)
San Jose St (22, 2nd highest ranked tier 3 champ after highest qualified to playoffs, Mt. West)
Play-in 2 -
Iowa (15, at-large, BIG)
Oklahoma St (21, highest ranked tier 2 school after both champs have qualified, WFA)