The 1972 Democratic Primaries were the first contests since the McGovern-Fraser Commission which reformed the primaries in a more small-d democratic direction. In the end, in part due to grassroots support, George McGovern was able to run a successful insurgent campaign and win the Democratic nomination in spite of strong establishment opposition, which continued after he had achieved the nomination. McGovern was well behind Nixon in polls from the very start - it was only with the running mate choice of Ted Kennedy that McGovern polled competitively at all with Nixon. However, despite strong urges, Kennedy refused to accept the offer of running mate, and after that, many other politicians McGovern asked declined. Finally McGovern settled for one-term former Massachusetts governor Endicott Peabody, with little enthusiasm and largely because he was one of the few people who were willing to accept the nomination
It was not an auspicious start to the McGovern campaign. In the end, the combination of a strong and aggressive campaign by the popular Nixon, the economy and Nixon's economic policy, the perception of McGovern as a left-wing radical, and the disunited Democratic Party (with some Democrats instead supporting Nixon), McGovern just never really had a chance. Nixon didn't just beat him, he beat him in a 42-state landslide, beating him by over 8 percent in the popular vote, getting over six million more votes. McGovern did take some solace in running an energetic campaign, outperforming the polls (which had at times predicted a Goldwater-level defeat) and even managing to narrowly defeat Nixon in his own home state of California
The Watergate scandal shook the nation. Trust in the system declined, and the Republicans took some hard hits in public opinion, initially and then after the new President, Gerald Ford, pardoned Nixon. Gerald Ford made an attempt at running for a second term in 1976, but insurgent conservative Ronald Reagan was narrowly able to defeat him in the Republican primaries
On the Democratic side, initially there were some rumors that George McGovern would run again. The Senator claimed some degree of vindication, after all - in 1972, he went against a Republican candidate who fought an outright crooked campaign, and who knows, maybe if some of the other figures in the Party supported him rather than staying silent or supporting the crook, the Democrats could have even won that year. But McGovern decided to not run again. And in the end, despite receiving some criticism for his role with the 'anybody but McGovern' faction in 1972, Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter managed to win the nomination, running as a centrist Washington outsider seeking to restore clean government in Washington
Though Carter started off with a strong lead in the general election, the conservative Reagan was able to claw his way back and narrow things considerably. By the end of the campaign, a combination of a strong debate performance by Reagan as well as some gaffes by Carter, among other factors, led to the two candidates being virtually tied, and in the end Reagan would win very narrowly in both the popular and electoral vote. Carter was able to achieve a strong Democratic resurgence in the South compared to Carter's abysmal results in the region in 1976, but Reagan was able to narrowly win the states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia, and thus take the election
Reagan had managed to win, and conservatives cheered the victory as a triumph for ascendant conservatism. The reality, however, would be a bit different. From the start, Reagan had rocky relations with the Democratic Congress (having failed to accomplish coattail gains in Congress in the 1976 elections), and his frequent butting of heads with Congress hampered his ability to accomplish things. Furthermore, developments in the economy and foreign affairs also contributed to a decline in Reagan's popularity, and his suggested responses, of conservative economic policy and hawkish military policy, were not particularly popular in the post-Vietnam era, Reagan also increasingly became seen as ineffectual over the course of his Presidency due to conflicts with Congress. In the first two years of his Presidency, Reagan was able to have some common ground with the southern moderate faction of the Democrats, but liberal Democratic gains in Congress in the 1978 midterms reduced even that route for agreement
The 1980 Democratic primaries saw a number of candidates running, with the perception of Republican weakness giving many a sense of opportunity. In the end, Ted Kennedy managed to win the nomination, with democratic voters in 1980 being rather more open to choosing a solid liberal compared to in 1976, in part due to the changing national conditions. For his running mate, Kennedy chose the Ohioan Senator and former astronaut John Glenn
Kennedy had a narrow lead over Reagan at the start of the campaign, and Reagan was never really able to recover. Reagan retained a core support of conservatives, and there were initial predictions that he might see some success attacking Kennedy for his liberalism, but Reagan's attacks didn't land that well with the general public in 1980. Kennedy expanded his lead, and though Reagan was able to retain support in the plains and southern states, Kennedy was still able to win by nearly 10%, and over eight million votes. Furthermore, liberal democrats did well downballot, giving Kennedy a friendly Congress
[I didn't bother to figure out exactly how well the Dems do in Congress, idk exactly how much better they'd do since the Presidential swings wouldn't necessarily be fully seen downballot, but I figured that at least a +5 to +10 percent swing wouldn't be out of the question, and there were a couple areas where the Dems could do considerably better than that, like in Minnesota in 1978 where Mondale ITTL wouldn't have a reason to not run again. Going with those ranges and factors, the Senate could potentially end up anywhere from
60 D - 39 R - 1 I to
72 D - 27 R - 1 I after the 1978 and 1980 elections, and presumably the House majorities would be pretty sizable even compared to the OTL 1980 result of
243 D - 192 R, but I can't be bothered to figure out even just a ballpark range for the House]
Kennedy took office with large majorities and large economic issues. Economists debate to this day to what extent the economic boom that occurred in the 1980s was due to the economic and monetary policies the Kennedy administration enacted vs just due to ongoing economic and technological trends as well as foreign developments, but at any rate, the federal policies to stimulate the economy received mixed to positive reception with the general public, despite conservative opposition
The Republican Party in the 1980s saw considerable factional infighting. The changes and counterculture trends of the past decades had themselves generated reactions. The rise of the 'religious right' was one such reaction, which had begun to coalesce in the 70s with the Reagan campaign getting considerable support from socially conservative religious voters and with such religious conservatives growing in influence among the Republican Party. Political scientists debate to this day whether it was due to the excesses of the religious right themselves, or more due to partisan politics with the popularity of the Kennedy administration among other things, but at any rate, the religious right became a significant insurgent faction among the Republican Party, but tended to have more liability than appeal among swing voters. The more moderate factions of the Party insisted that the religious right was putting electability on the line, and pointed to how the Democrats had potentially seen the decent 1982 midterm results they got in part due to the unpopularity of religious right candidates helping throw a some elections in winnable races. The religious right retorted that the Party establishment was actually responsible, for failing to give support to the candidates and failing to fire up the Party's base due to their wrong-headed pursuit of electability at the expense of bold stances. With the popularity of the President and the infighting in the GOP, it was generally predicted that Kennedy would manage to win re-election, likely with a comfortable margin
Then the Republican primaries happened, and Jesse Helms, Senator from North Carolina, won the nomination. With some big figures sitting out, not wishing to put themselves out there just to be defeated by Kennedy, the primaries had something of a weak field. Helms was initially written off, but he managed to win support from the religious right with his support on various social issues. The race was still quite narrow, with the nominee not being certain until the convention, but Helms was narrowly able to win a majority of the delegates and take the nomination
Sure, pundits said, they were wrong in their initial predictions that Helms wouldn't really run a serious national campaign, and then that Helms wouldn't get any substantial amount of support, and then that Helms would never win Iowa, and then that Helms would never win a primary where his opposition was united behind one candidate, and then that he'd never win the nomination, but
certainly, said the pundits, Helms simply couldn't win the general election, right? And they were right, Kennedy ended up beating Helms in a landslide, winning all but 5 stated and by 18% of the vote - nearly 15 million votes, with Helms' strongly conservative campaign not only being a liability for himself but also helping drag down the GOP downballot
The 8 years of Kennedy's administration saw a number of accomplishments. Among those were the establishment of a single payer universal healthcare system, increased economic aid to inner cities and poor school districts, increasing spending for social programs, and environmentalist policy including funding for green research, international agreement to phase out cfcs, and a carbon tax. In terms of foreign policy, the Kennedy administration also imposed sanctions on Saudi Arabia, reduced military spending, and also came to arms reductions agreements with the USSR, among a more general decrease in tensions with the USSR as that country's political system reformed and as the country pulled back from the Cold War
In the 1988 Democratic primaries, John Glenn was seen as the favorite to win the nomination due to his position as Vice President in the Kennedy administration, and ended up winning, choosing former California Governor Jerry Brown as his running mate. The Republican Party had moved back towards the center somewhat - despite opposition in the primaries by the 'Moral Majority', Kansas Senator Bob Dole won the GOP primary, and chose Howard Baker as his running mate. The Republican ticket looked far more competitive this time around than in 1984, with rather more toned-down and conciliatory rhetoric - due to this, and public fatigue with the same party being in power for 8 years, Dole initially pretty much tied with Glenn in polling. However, over the course of the campaign, Dole made some missteps including comments about "Democrat wars" that didn't go over well with the public, and Glenn managed to run a strong campaign, which resulted in him winning a solid victory, albeit by smaller margins than the Democrats' 1980 and 1984 results.