On December 6, 2014, voters across United Canada went to the polls to elect the 200 members of the Legislative Assembly, and, as a result, choose whether or not to re-elect the government of Joint Premiers Liza Frulla and David McGuinty or choose to end joint-centrist rule for the first time since 2003. Their main competitors were opposition leaders John Tory (in Canada West) and Daniel Fournier (in Canada East), who had both been leading in the polls leading up to the election.
In Canada West, McGuinty and his
Clear Grits faced an uphill battle after dominating the region’s politics since the mid-1990s. While the party had initially earned high approval ratings, with the popularity of McGuinty’s predecessor Sheila Copps single-handedly causing the Grits to survive the dysfunctional working relationship with her initial co-Premier, Lucien Bouchard, the party had been on a downward spiral since her 2008 assassination and McGuinty’s subsequent assumption of the leadership. Only managing to win a majority of Canada West’s seats in 2009 as a result of Copps’ lingering popularity, McGuinty’s approval ratings had steadily declined thanks to a worsening economy, and the growing sense among voters that he was being pushed around by Frulla and failing to adequately stand up for the West’s interests. While the opposition
Tories, led by former Toronto Mayor John Tory, were the natural benefactors, this sentiment also helped boost the fortunes of the separatist
Western Right Alliance (WRA). Led by long-time leader Larry Miller, the perception that McGuinty was giving in to the East at the expense of the West made many voters receptive to Miller’s separatist message. Further helping Miller was the collapse of
The Compact, who had been dealing with internal conflicts since the election of new leader Monte McNaughton earlier in the year, and whose brand of right-wing populism suddenly had competition following the sudden relevance of the WRA.
The election results in Canada West were ultimately unsurprising; Tory’s Tories won a minority of seats, and McGuinty’s Grits were sent to the opposition benches for the first time in nearly two decades. The WRA, meanwhile, had the best performance in its history, electing 12 MPs and winning over 15 per cent of the popular vote, while The Compact, on the other hand, had its worst performance in years, winning only 3 seats and with McNaughton himself only barely fending of a WRA challenger. The left-wing
Radical Party, meanwhile, increased in support under long-time leader Paula Fletcher, largely thanks to left-wing dissatisfaction with McGuinty, while the
Greens under new leader Deborah Coyne once again failed to win a seat, despite increasing their share of the popular vote.
In Canada East, the story was somewhat different. Though Frulla was popular in the region thanks to her perceived dominance over McGuinty, a worsening economic situation and an unpopular development program in the east had caused her approval ratings to drop, as did a scandal involving the finances of her party,
Les Rouges. More than that, however, voters had simply tired of her after 11 years in office, and had grown to see her as an arrogant, seemingly entitled leader, leading many voters unsatisfied with Frulla turning to the
Tories under new leader Daniel Fournier. Fournier, an accomplished businessman, had won the party leadership in 2011 by portraying himself as an outsider candidate unafraid to challenge the political establishment, and with voters tired of Frulla’s apparent arrogance Fournier’s outsider campaign proved effective. More than that, his outsider status prevented Frulla from tying him, as she had done to his predecessors, with the controversial Bouchard government, which had come under intense scrutiny following its 2003 defeat when Saulie Zajdel, Bouchard’s former Minister of Immigration, was arrested on corruption charges. With a fresh image and voters tired of Les Rouges, polls showed Fournier with the lead, and few were surprised when voters gave Fournier a majority of Canada East’s seats, winning 53 to Frulla’s 37. The left-wing
Patriotes saw an increase in support as a result of Frulla’s unpopularity, winning 7 seats and 14 percent of the vote, as did the Aboriginal rights party
Indigenous Alliance, winning its first seat as a result of the government’s mishandling of the file. The Anglophone rights
Equality Party, on the other hand, continued its downward trend, winning only 2 seats as party members dissatisfied with Robert Libman’s continued leadership opted to stay home.
Thus, the country now finds itself with Daniel Fournier and John Tory as its Joint Premiers. While there’s some concern that the Tory minority in Canada West will make passing legislation difficult, with both Premiers being conservative for the first time since 1994, United Canada finds itself entering a new era.