The 1968 US Presidential Election (based on a Campaign Trail game)
The situation
The 1968 election wasn't looking good for the Democrats. Sitting president
Lyndon B. Johnson, a Democrat, was highly unpopular due to his policy of escalation in the ongoing war in a previously little-known South-Eastern Asian country, Vietnam. The war started during the Eisenhower administration and was further escalated during Kennedy's short time in office, but it really was Johnson who had escalated it by a considerable spike of American soldiers sent. His popularity from the 1964 electoral landslide against Republican
Barry Goldwater, and his support coming from the Great Society had completely vanished in 68. This is why he publicly announced that he would not seek re-election for a second term, and instead decided to pass the torch to his Vice President,
Hubert H. Humphrey.
THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES AND NATIONAL CONVENTION
To say that the Democratic Primaries were chaotic would be an understatement. The two main contenders that participated in them were former New York Senator, former Attorney General, and brother of assassinated president John F. Kennedy
Robert F. Kennedy, and Minnesota Senator
Eugene McCarthy. The two fought a bitter contest while being both representatives of the anti-war bloc of the party that opposed Johnson's pick of Humphrey. The primaries culminated in the assassination of Kennedy, who had just won the primary in the state of California. At this point, the Democratic Party was broken. Divided between pro-war and anti-war advocates, the party struggled to unite under one banner, and the first days of the convention were a disaster: Democrats making speeches against each other, generalized chaos and confusion, plus Chicago Mayor
Richard J. Daley using police brutality tactics against the anti-war protesters outside the convention building. The nation assisted in awe as these protesters were bathed in blood at the hands of Democratic-associated power. Humphrey was the favorite, but this didn't make the unhappy party happier. As Humphrey watched on TV the riots and how the convention moved to nominate him, he knew he had to do something to bring back the anti-war bloc of his party, because if that was not going to be the case, he would have lost the election, for sure. This was a difficult moment for the Senator. He had to make a decision that would either alienate Johnson or the peace Democrats. But seeing the police brutally beating the protesters was the turning point. As he headed for the convention to make his acceptance speech, he had already decided. At the convention, Humphrey criticized the police overreaction and pivoted towards promising the end of the Vietnam War. The backlash was immediate: cheers mixed with jeers filled the hall, as the hawkish wing of the party left the convention hall. Johnson immediately called Humphrey to deliver an infuriated reprimand. But that was it, Humphrey had made his decision. With his vice-presidential nominee,
Edmund Muskie, he decided to run the campaign on a pledge to continue the Great Society and end the war in Vietnam as soon as possible with a peace treaty.
THE REPUBLICANS
On the Republican side were not as heated, but not completely smooth either. Former Vice President and 1960 Republican Presidential Nominee
Richard M. Nixon was the frontrunner from the start, but faced a couple of challengers, between them California Governor
Ronald Reagan, Michigan Governor
George W. Romney and New York Governor
Nelson Rockefeller. Nixon easily won the nomination, even after a failed plan between Regan and Rockefeller to coalize and defeat him. The convention also nominated controversial Maryland Governor
Spiro Agnew as his running mate.
THE CAMPAIGN
Humphrey campaigned on a message of continuing the Great Society, the low unemployment rate and economic growth of the 60s, and signing a peace treaty to end the war, while Nixon campaigned on the high inflation rate and took the opportunity to be the more moderate candidate on the Vietnam issue, advocating for the necessity of action to somehow end the war, but not being as specific and rotund as Humphrey, in hopes of attracting both moderates and war Democrats. In the end, this strategy backfired, as voters saw Nixon as too vague. Still, in the polls, Humphrey and Nixon exchanged leads continuously. One interesting thing was the third-party candidacy of Alabama Governor
George Wallace, who ran under the American Independent Party with a pro-segregation platform. Wallace's hopes were to gridlock the electoral college and cause the need for both major parties to negotiate with him, giving him leverage to de-escalate the civil rights legislation passed by Johnson. Racial chaos plagued the country during the campaign, and Nixon took the opportunity to postulate himself as the law and order candidate, indirectly trying to appeal to racist and state's rights voters. In the end, this proved beneficial to Humphrey, as Nixon and Wallace spoiled each other in some southern states, as we are going to see later on. Humphrey instead supported the Civil Rights movement, of which he had been an advocate since the 40s. This earned him the majority of the black vote and motivated, even more, the liberal northern vote.
THE PEACE TALKS BREAKTHROUGH, THE NIXON SCANDAL AND THE FINAL CHAOS
The week before the election President Johnson announced that peace talks for a possible peace deal were under-way. This, along with aggressive campaigning from the unions in favor of Humphrey gave the latter a boost in late polls. Trying to prevent this boost from damaging him too much, Nixon used his contacts in the diplomatic field and in the Department of State to contact South Vietnam leader Thieu and promise him that under a Nixon administration South Vietnam would be offered a more convenient deal if they deserted the peace talks. Thieu accepted, and the talks were interrupted. However, the joy for Nixon lasted only a day, as the NSA had been spying Nixon and the South Vietnamese embassy under Johnson's orders. Humphrey and Johnson didn't doubt a second and made Nixon's shady business public. The chaos that ensued thereafter added itself to the already existing confusion. The Democrats accused Nixon of high treason, and Nixon accused the Democrats of spying on him. In the end, the breakout proved beneficial to Humphrey, as polls registered an even bigger surge than before at the 11th hour.
THE RESULTS
Humphrey won and won big. He carried 463 electoral voted and won almost half of the national popular vote, with 49.9%. Nixon was even more humiliated by coming not even second, but third in the electoral college, being surpassed by Wallace's 39 EVs to his 36 EVs. However Nixon came in second in the popular vote, with 38.8%, and Wallace came in third with 11.3%. Nixon's humiliation was even more bad, as thanks to him and Wallace spoiling each other and due to the unpopularity he faced among more liberal-oriented Republicans for his vague stance on civil rights and the scandal of the Vietnam talks, Humphrey was able to carry Republican strongholds as Virginia, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Iowa, Indiana, Florida, Oklahoma, and all the swing states. Nixon's ticket lost both his and Agnew's home states. While not replicating Johnson's 1964 landslide by a few EVs, Humphrey was able to save his campaign, which had been designated as "doomed to fail" early that year. This was also the second time straight that Arizona voted with the Republican in a Democrat landslide year. Nixon won Arizona by 4.3% of the vote, thanks to Senator Goldwater's campaigning there, whom still had a big and important reputation and following in his home state. The closest state was South Dakota, which was carried by Nixon with a narrow 1.2% margin, which translated into votes was a meager 3,640 votes, a bad margin for a Republican in that state. Wallace was able to carry most of the south, but he only carried Mississippi and Alabama with an outright majority, winning Georgia and Lousiana by only 36.8% and 43.6% respectively. Humphrey's closest win was in New Mexico, where he won with a margin of 1.9%. Hubert Humphrey became the 37th President of the United States, and Edmund Muskie became the 39th Vice President of the United States. Nixon never ran for any other office again, haunted by the Vietnam Scandal. Wallace continued serving as Alabama's governor.
-MKG
