THIS IS DEWEY COUNTRY Ep.2 - An alternate timeline of the events after the 1948 election
November 5th, 1952
As the dust settles, it's clear that this has been one of the most, if not THE most, close election in American history.
Incumbent
Thomas E. Dewey, re-nominated by his party earlier in the summer, has won by a single electoral vote, and nearly lost the popular vote, surpassing his opponent, Democratic nominee and Senator from Tennessee
Estes Kefauver, by only 257,802 votes nationwide.
Opposed to four years earlier, when it was clear Dewey had won early in the night, this time a victor was not declared until around mid-day EST. Although every poll predicted a very close race, nobody thought the suspense would last so long, until Ohio was finally called for Dewey.
Still being re-elected, this is a very short victory for Dewey, for a bunch of reasons, including his first term performance and it's consequences, the loss of a strong popular mandate and the majority in Congress, plus the embarrassment of winning so closely after the 1948 landslide and the smack that consisted in losing California, Dewey's running mate and incumbent Vice-President Earl Warren's home state, to Kefauver, who won it by a mere 1%.
In fact, Dewey's first term was quite uneasy, to say the least.
Dewey, being a liberal Est Coast Republican with some progressive policies struggled to pass legislation in a Congress dominated by conservative Republicans led by Ohio Senator
Robert A. Taft. So much so that to keep some of his liberal campaign promises and not look as a lying opportunistic, he had to compromise with some wings of the Democratic Party. Some of the legislation he passed consisted in desegregating the Army, a policy that even former president Harry Truman (which had been re-elected to the Senate in the 1950 midterms) supported (some say out of interest to save some of the black vote from Dewey) and a small array of moderate and cut versions of the New Deal. Dewey's collaboration with the Democrats was so close (because he so much needed it) that some argued if the President wasn't in the wrong party. Conservative Republicans felt uneasy and some newspapers dubbed him the
Closet Donkey.
But the major issue of the election was without a doubt the ongoing
Korean War, a conflict which had sparked right in the middle of Dewey's term when North Korea invaded South Korea. The latter being a close ally of the USA, it was expected the administration to respond quickly in favor of the South. However, Dewey hesitated for several weeks before finally taking action, urged by the Un Security Council. The war had dragged on until the election, but significant Allied victories recuperated a bit of the lost popularity, and the firing of General Douglas McArthur by Dewey, after the general's plans were released to the press by the White House, was seen as a good move and was quite approved by the voters.
The Democrats saw in Dewey's many weaknesses the perfect time and chance to win the presidency back. Excited by the victory in the 1950 Midterms, where they regained both the House and Senate, they nominated the by then nation-wide popular Senator from Tennessee
Estes Kefauver for president and the Governor of Illinois Adlai Stevenson the IInd for vice-president. Kefauver and Stevenson made a strange, but working couple; while Stevenson was seen as the intellectual voice of the campaign, the one that brought the cold facts to the debate, Kefauver was the incendiary speaker that toured the country.
Again, polls predicted a very close race, and some had Dewey winning the Electoral College but losing the Popular Vote. However, this very narrowly didn't happen.
The strong economy provided the final boost to make a second term happen.
The voter turnout spiked by a stunning 10.9%, favoring both candidates almost evenly, with a slight edge for Kefauver, that made the popular vote as close as we have seen. Dewey turnout was driven by the will of maintaining the status quo and leadership during wartime, and Kefauver turnout sought to instead break that status quo, with a charismatic figure upfront like the Tennessee Senator.
Fun fact: both candidates were actively involved in the fight against organized crime.
Now Dewey has to lead the country for a second term, but this time, without the support of a strong mandate, with the eroding support of the conservative wing of his party and a very energized Democratic Party and majority in Congress, it seems that trouble is ahead for the 34th.