Florida Senate Election, 2016
After Senator Marco Rubio won the GOP nomination, the race for his Senate seat opened up. The Democratic primary was a rather sleepy affair where Congressman Patrick Murphy won. The GOP side was far more interesting. A crowded field of eight featured such politicians as Rep. David Jolly, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, Rep. Ron DeSantis, as well as more minor candidates such as Pinellas County Sheriff Dwight Young and businessman Carlos Beruff. Beruff ran far to the other candidates' right and was endorsed by brief Presidential contender Donald Trump. While Beruff quickly made a name for himself, he never polled higher than third place, with the race seemingly a tossup between Jolly and Lopez-Cantera.
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The pundits were shocked when Beruff claimed a very close victory over Jolly in the August 31 primary. Jolly's requests for a recount were accepted, but the effort fizzled out as donors slowly abandoned him. Pundits realized that Beruff had carved out his own electorate on the GOP's far right, and the other three major candidates had split the establishment vote. The final nail in the coffin for Jolly was Dwight Young's candidacy. He claimed the same home turf (Pinellas County) as did Jolly, and cost Jolly a few very crucial votes there.
Murphy wasn't the most inspiring candidate, and in poll matchups against all three major GOP contenders (excluding Beruff), he lost, albeit narrowly. Beruff was an unknown factor in the race. Polls showed him both slightly ahead and far behind Murphy. It was hard for polls to catch him. However, he tumbled definitively in the polls after calling President Obama "an animal" during a rally, and in that same rally, insulting GOP nominee Rubio, whom many Republicans had a favorable view of in Florida. Beruff lacked support from the Republican establishment, only appearing with such figures as Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, and Allen West. In contrast, Murphy appeared on stage with the Obamas, the Bidens, the Clintons, and many Florida Democrats, as well as New York politicians Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg, known moderates. The Beruff campaign was deemed worthless after the debate, where Murphy dominated while Beruff flopped. Election day came showing Murphy ahead of Beruff by five points, with Republicans hoping Rubio's coattails in the state would help his downballot successor.
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In the end, Murphy prevailed by over 10 points and nearly a million votes, even while Marco Rubio won the state by a 6 point margin.