Four For Gore
When he was first elected in 2012, Maxime Bernier promised the Canadian people change. By this, most people assumed he meant the change of a tired, old government preoccupied with maintaining their electoral viability, to a fresh, new government supposedly more in tune with the views of ordinary Canadians. But, as Bernier's majority government would show, Canadians got more change than they bargained for. If you asked people outside of Canada what the first few things that came to mind when talking about the country were, at the beginning of 2016 most people would have said hockey, maple syrup, and the word "eh?" By the end of 2016, though, the thing on everyone's mind when talking about Canada was the country's gaffe-prone, controversial Prime Minister.
The bizarre saga in Canadian politics began in the spring of 2016, with an explosive report from the CBC that the Prime Minister's Office had been responsible for the loss of several confidential documents, including a confidential NATO report, that the government had been unable to locate since their disappearance. While Bernier himself was not personally implicated, his poorly handled, off the cuff response when questioned about it in the House of Commons (specifically "
Mistakes happen") led to the Prime Minister being widely lampooned, in both Canada and abroad. The "PMO leak," as the scandal would become known in Canada, quickly led to a greater worldwide interest in the Prime Minister, which journalists were quick to capitalize on. A
Toronto Star report, breaking the unspoken rule in Canada about investigating a politician's private life, made additional waves, with the paper reporting that one of Bernier's close friends had ties to the Hells Angels. While these controversies would usually have been enough to force a politician to resign, for Bernier they resulted in an unexpected boost of sympathy from his base, who argued that the media was unfairly targeting Bernier, citing the
Star's intrusion into his personal life as a prime example.
With over two years to go until Canada would be back at the polls, Bernier quickly worked to try and shift the focus to what had given him his majority two years earlier: the economy. And, while Bernier would be somewhat successful and allow the Tories to rebound from the disastrous polling numbers experienced during the peak of the PMO leak, new Opposition Leader Scott Brison was able to successfully keep the scandal in the minds of Canadians (indeed, the scandal would resurface at just about every international conference, with the opposition sarcastically reminding Bernier to keep an eye on his briefcase).
Despite these attacks, Bernier's Conservatives would briefly return to the lead in the summer of 2017, until he was undone yet again by a report, this time from
The New York Times, that the United States government, investigating these missing reports (as they contained secrets important to American national security), strongly believed that they had gotten into the hands of the Russian government. While Bernier denied the report, claiming that Canada's own investigation had shown this to be unlikely, the report nevertheless brought the scandal back into the minds of voters. By the time the election was called in the fall of 2018, it was clear that Brison's Liberals were going to win, the only question was whether or not it would be a majority or minority government.
Despite leading the Conservatives by over 12 points in the popular vote, the Liberals found themselves with the slimmest majority government with 170 seats. The Conservatives, due to a more efficient vote and Bernier's surprisingly resilient popularity with his base, won 101 seats, with losses primarily in Ontario, the West, and Brison's home region of Atlantic Canada. The Bloc Quebecois, under new leader Pierre Paquette and with 45 seats, rebounded from their performance in the previous election, despite failing to win back several of the seats gained by the Conservatives in 2014. The NDP under new leader Peter Julian lost 7 seats, primarily due to strategic voting to prevent another Bernier government, but also due to losses to the Greens, who won 7 seats and 10 per cent of the vote.
Bernier would retire shortly after his election loss, and be replaced by the popular, well-respected Premier of Saskatchewan, Brad Wall. While Wall has proven to be an effective Opposition Leader, his lack of popularity in Quebec, and amongst some of Bernier's staunchest supporters (many of whom voted Conservative only for Bernier, and many others who are upset about the fact that Bernier didn't stay on as leader) has resulted in the Conservatives continuing to trail the Liberals in the polls, with the governing party hoping to win another majority in 2022...
Four For Gore
US presidential elections of 2000 and 2004, and senate elections of 2002 and 2004
Canadian federal elections of 2004 and 2005
US presidential election of 2008, and senate elections of 2006 and 2008
Canadian federal election of 2010
US presidential election of 2012, and senate elections of 2010 and 2012
Canadian federal election of 2012
Canadian federal election of 2014
The Hour with George W. Bush
US presidential election of 2016, and senate elections of 2014 and 2016