Alternate ways for America to enter WWII

In OTL, America entered World War II after the raid/attack on Pearl Harbor.

Is there any other way America can enter the war, w/o Pearl Harbor?
 
June 1941
The U-203 stalks the USS Texas in the North Atlantic near Iceland while it is carrying out Neutrality Patrol duties. Historically the Germans did not fire

Now assume mist causes some confusion regarding the identity of the American warship, and the Uboat fires and manages to hit and even worse sink the battleship. Casualties would be heavy if it goes down in the far north Atlantic, and even Isolationist Congressmen would be under heavy pressure to declare war.

Long shot, but certainly one that does not require many butterflies to happen.

easy reference can be found here... there are others
http://www.armchairgeneral.com/uss-texas-last-of-its-kind.htm
 

CalBear

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June 1941
The U-203 stalks the USS Texas in the North Atlantic near Iceland while it is carrying out Neutrality Patrol duties. Historically the Germans did not fire

Now assume mist causes some confusion regarding the identity of the American warship, and the Uboat fires and manages to hit and even worse sink the battleship. Casualties would be heavy if it goes down in the far north Atlantic, and even Isolationist Congressmen would be under heavy pressure to declare war.

Long shot, but certainly one that does not require many butterflies to happen.

easy reference can be found here... there are others
http://www.armchairgeneral.com/uss-texas-last-of-its-kind.htm

Far & away the easiest, lowest change from OTL conditions. ^

If the Texas is sunk, in the prevailing conditions that could kill 600+ personnel. Between the number of casualties and the fact it was a BATTLESHIP the outcry would be enough to set things off, especially since the Election cycle is over and FDR doesn't need to deal with the issue on the stump.

Next "best" is the Reuben James sinking & Kearny torpedoing . Kearny survived her attack two weeks before the loss of the Reuben James with 11 KIA 22 WIA. Had both ships been sunk, with heavy loss of life, that might be enough. If there was already a serious drumbeat for war in the media (similar to the Hearst push leading up to the Spanish American War) that would make it more likely.

After that it gets increasingly difficult.

My # 3 would be in China. In January of 1941 Sir William Johnstone "Tony" Keswick , a member of the Shanghai International Settlement Municipal Council was shot by the leader of the Japanese Street Union Association during a mass ratepayers meeting. The dispute itself was not internationally political (it had to do with local taxes), but with the general political climate it would be difficult to imagine it blowing up into an Incident between the IJA forces occupying Shanghai and U.S. (4th Marines) and British Army troops assigned to defend the Settlement
 
My # 3 would be in China. In January of 1941 Sir William Johnstone "Tony" Keswick , a member of the Shanghai International Settlement Municipal Council was shot by the leader of the Japanese Street Union Association during a mass ratepayers meeting. The dispute itself was not internationally political (it had to do with local taxes), but with the general political climate it would be difficult to imagine it blowing up into an Incident between the IJA forces occupying Shanghai and U.S. (4th Marines) and British Army troops assigned to defend the Settlement

I don't think this will do it. The response to the Panay Incident, an actual attack on a US warship, triggered calls for American forces to withdraw from China.
 

CalBear

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I don't think this will do it. The response to the Panay Incident, an actual attack on a US warship, triggered calls for American forces to withdraw from China.

Might be right. Of course in 1937 the Japanese also mea culpa'd and paid reparations, it was military losses only (3 KIA, 45 WIA), and the rancor in the relationship wasn't nearly as high.

A straight up fight in the International Settlement, with noteworthy losses, including some "European" civilians, and the excesses that the IJA had begun to conduct as a matter of routine, even if they were confined to the Chinese sheltering in the enclave, could be a very different matter.
 

raharris1973

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So that gives us:

a) Jan 1941 - Shanghai Escalates
This is going to involve Japan versus US first. Is a declaration of war on Germany inevitable from the US end? Does the involvement of Japan's navy encourage him to loose all geographical restrictions on U-Boats?
Does it affect Hitler's calculations related to the Mediterranean theater, Balkan campaign or the launch of Barbarossa?

In the first instance, any notable differences in order of battle or readiness of the Japanese or ABCDA powers at this time Jan 1941 and subsequent months, versus December 1941 on?

In terms of military positioning, Japan is only in northern Indochina at the start, though a war with the west would change that quickly. the US fleet is already at Pearl. I think there's less US stuff in the PI, probably a good thing actually.

b) Jun 1941 - Texas is sunk

War btwn US and Germany. US probably declares war first, but then again, on hearing of the incident, Hitler may say what the hell, it's inevitable and try to get his DoW and extended U-Boat campaign going before the Americans vote for war.

The kickoff of Barbarossa is so soon that I doubt its timing is effected.

At what point and in what manner do the Japanese subsequently join the war?

This is before the full US embargo on Japan, but at a time when many Japanese were pushing the general strike south idea and the decision to occupy central and southern French Indochina was made or imminent. So I'd say odds are over 50/50 of Japan getting in on Germany's side.

c) Oct 1941- Kearny sunk

Same as b) except probability of Japanese entry by this time is north of 90%.

And the Russian campaign is in full swing already.

The Japanese also already have southern Indochina as a jumping of point.

thoughts?
 
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CalBear

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With the Shanghai Incident scenario Hitler is presented with a REAL conundrum. Since any war arising against Japan would be virtually certain to include the British (who had at least as large of a military contingent in Shanghai as the U.S., with more British civilians than Americans present), Hitler is presented with the same issue that existed almost a year later. In case of war the U.S. will be a co-belligerent with the UK, meaning that it can claim any military equipment going to the British is to enhance their fight with the Japanese Empire, regardless of how much of it is actually used against the Reich.

This would allow full U.S. escort all the way to British ports, effectively ending the Battle of the Atlantic unless Hitler decided to wage an undeclared war, which wouldn't last long, since a U.S. already at war would be a lot less willing to play games in the Atlantic. So Hitler can either accept the effort to defeat the UK via blockade has failed or go to war with the U.S. six months BEFORE Barbarossa

Nice set of choices there.

The Japanese are sort of screwed regardless. They are flat not ready to engage the U.S. and UK in January 1941, not with the sort of attacks that allowed them to "run wild" for six months. No plans exist, no surprise exists, and number of carriers (even of A6M for the carriers) to below the minimum needed for any sort of attack against Pearl, especially an alerted Pearl.

The June scenario is just as bad, although at least in that case the U.S. isn't at war with Japan, meaning that there is still a chance, albeit much lower, of catching the U.S. napping. October is better, but they still lack both Shokaku & Zuikaku which were critical, according to IJN planners to ensure that the strikes against Pearl had sufficient combat mass to ensure success (combined the two carriers provided 11 A6M and 51 D3A to the first wave, and 54 B5N to the second).
 
Early US entry does indeed leave the Japanese in an interesting position, particularly in June 1941.

Allied weaknesses:
1. Few of the reinforcements that were sent to the Philippines have arrived, particularly the bombers and some of the fighters. I am not sure of the numbers, but a substantial wave arrived between July and October.
2. Wake Island has not even seen the arrival of the initial elements of the Marines, so is essentially naked
3. Almost no American ships have radar yet, although it is being added at a pretty quick pace.
4. The Army is even in worse shape... the Louisiana Maneuvers have not yet been held, and the Army has no experience even practicing anything larger than divisional level maneuvers yet.
5. The Army Air Force and Naval Air Service are in similar shape... rife with deficiencies and still upgrading its aircraft from first generation to second generation monoplanes.
6. The Royal Navy just took serious losses in the Mediterranean around Crete (but at least it sunk the Bismark during the same period, albeit at the cost of the Hood and serious damage to the Prince of Wales), and in North Africa, Operation Battle Axe has just failed with serious British losses. Between that and the poor state of the evacuated forces from Greece and Crete, British reserves are at a low point

of course the Japanese are by no means ready either

My guess, early US entry means that planned air and ground reinforcements for the Pacific are very likely to be diverted to the British Isles at the very least to free up British forces for deployment elsewhere. The Fleet is unlikely to see any further swing to the Pacific either, and in fact I suspect more destroyers will head to the Atlantic as well. I doubt the 3 carriers or the battleships will be sent, at least not any additional ones, but escorts will be at a premium as at this point the Germans are doing well in the Uboat war.

Which I guess means that the Pacific forces will be even weaker for the US until mobilization really starts to kick in, so potentially the Japanese might still have that useful window of opportunity in the Pacific.


As to Pearl Harbor, I have another theory on that
 
This would allow full U.S. escort all the way to British ports, effectively ending the Battle of the Atlantic unless Hitler decided to wage an undeclared war, which wouldn't last long, since a U.S. already at war would be a lot less willing to play games in the Atlantic. So Hitler can either accept the effort to defeat the UK via blockade has failed or go to war with the U.S. six months BEFORE Barbarossa

Nice set of choices there.

Well, no matter what Hitler decides there is the fact that soon American made planes manned by British crews will be bombing German forces and cities. Hitler's going to tolerate that just as much as the US would tolerate it if Japan started hitting American cities with German made bombers.
 
early US entry for Pearl Harbor

here is where the personalities come into play. Short was fixated on sabotage while Kimmel was fixated on training. In "At Dawn we Slept" I think this point is really rammed home by Gordon Prange and I bow to his exhaustively researched tome. So based on that, even with the US at war, the feeling that Pearl was a rear area far from danger is going to prevail.

So the Japanese could very well stick to their schedule and attack in December, if the oil embargo goes into effect and with a similarly high prospect of success.

So would the Japanese proceed in Indochina? Well they already did.. the previous September. They expanded their presence and moved into southern Indochina in July 1941, and made their decision to seek to gain the 'southern resource area' because of Barbarossa. Which would indeed probably go off on schedule due to momentum if nothing else.

So as far as the Japanese are concerned, both the Americans AND the Soviets are focused on Europe, and the British of course already are, so I my view they would likely believe that there is no better time to gain the 'southern resource area'

Pearl Harbor would thus likely happen as in OTL and probably with similar results. US reinforcements to Australia are going to be likely weaker and slower in arriving than historically as they would be en route to Europe (Germany first having even more impetus in this timeline), and this may mean that the Japanese take Port Morseby and secure Guadalcanal before the US and Australia can do much to counter it.

Which might very well butterfly the entire Southwest Pacific campaign out of existence as nobody planned to fight there until the war actually got under way and if the Japanese already have it, then the planned Central Pacific campaign as first choice while remaining on the defense in the South Pacific becomes an attractive option. If this means sitting on the strategic defensive during all of 1942, it might still be viewed as a necessity as far more American forces are going to be in Europe in 1942 due to momentum established by US entry in 1941
 

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Well, no matter what Hitler decides there is the fact that soon American made planes manned by British crews will be bombing German forces and cities. Hitler's going to tolerate that just as much as the US would tolerate it if Japan started hitting American cities with German made bombers.

Um, the British were flying US purchased planes in 1940, as were the French. Cash and Carry was the policy and Hitler didn't care enough. Same with LL when it started in mid 1941
 
July 1941. Previously to reduce tensions between Britain and Iceland there was a three way agreement that US military forces would replace British. This was mostly ground forces, tho some US air and naval units rebased to Iceland in 1941.

Hitler was annoyed by this & it seems to have been on of the early points where he toyed with the idea of a DoW on the US, tho dropping it imeadiatly.

Lets supose for a moment Hitler acquires solid information on the agreement and on the details for the USN forces scheduled to make the move to Iceland. Stunned by the information Hitler has one of his tantrums & determines to teach the US a lesson. There are a few days or weeks to prepare & German forces, mostly submarines are dispatched to interdict & attack the US fleet in or near Icelandic waters. VLR reconissance flaights are also sent out in a maximum effort to track the US naval forces enroute to Iceland.

A two or three day running battle between the USN and German submarines off Iceland brings the US into the war. It is a given the Brits would join with whatever ASW forces they had at hand.

If you want to go over top with this one hold back the Bismarck a few weeks, then send it and any other big gun ships ready off to teach the Americans how wrong they are off the shores of Iceland :D
 
The other possibility is the planned breakout of the Pocket Battleship Admiral Scheer into the Convoy Lanes in November '41. Admiral Earnest J. King (later CNO), commanding the Atlantic Fleet, sent the Battleships Idaho and Mississippi, cruisers Tuscaloosa and Wichita, and three destroyers as Task Force One into the Denmark Strait to prevent by force, if necessary, the German pocket battleship from breaking out. Machinery damage kept Scheer in port, but, if she had sailed and encountered the USN, combat is very likely. The aftermath would be that a German declaration of war on the U.S. a month before Pearl Harbor, given Hitler's pride, hubris, and temper, would result.

See Operation Drumbeat, by Michael Gannon, p. 88
 
US entry was inevitable. FDR didn't want a world where he faced a defeated France and UK, and with no real relations with the USSR to fall back on. He knew Hitler wanted to rule the world, and this would not halt at America.

Whether Pearl Harbour didn't happen or not, I think the Japanese would have attacked, given US agitation to get a reason to join the war. Or possibly Hitler would send out feelers to sense the US' hunger for war. This could be sending ships in US waters, aeroplanes over the USA and Canada (which would be a threat even though Canada was/is a sovereign state it still was an ally in the war), or sinking US merchant shipping or attacking US citizens in Europe and North Africa.

Hitler was a very intelligent man, and knew the USA was aiding the UK via Lend-Lease. So US entry in some form was always going to happen, as not just FDR but the establishment (both GOP and Dems possibly) knew Axis aggression was an eventual threat.
 
Um, the British were flying US purchased planes in 1940, as were the French. Cash and Carry was the policy and Hitler didn't care enough. Same with LL when it started in mid 1941

Point. Although I would argue that there could be a difference between the odd fighter or tank that engages a German one on or over the battlefield and a wing of B-17s that levels several city blocks. But who knows if that would be enough to peeve Hitler off. Adolf wasn't really a man of restraint, after all....
 
In OTL, America entered World War II after the raid/attack on Pearl Harbor.

Is there any other way America can enter the war, w/o Pearl Harbor?

Well.

  1. Japan goes on the offensive in SE Asia in December 1941, invading Malaya, the East Indies, and the Philippines, but does not attack Pearl Harbor. This is fairly plausible. Most of the Japanese Navy, including the planning staff, thought Yamamato's plan for striking Pearl Harbor was reckless overreach.
  2. Japan invades Malaya and the East Indies, but does not attack Pearl Harbor or the Philippines. Roosevelt gets Congress to declare war on Japan. This is less plausible, as it would be very hard to get a declaration when the US has not been attacked.
  3. Japan stays out of the war, for various reasons. Roosevelt continues Lend-Lease aid to Britain and the USSR, and the aggressive posture of the Navy in the Atlantic. There are several additional incidents comparable to Reuben James and Kearny. Also, US ships sink at least one U-boat. This trend leads Hitler to order U-boat operations expanded to the western Atlantic and even the Caribbean. Though the Germans try to avoid direct attacks on US ships in US waters, there are several sinkings that inflame the US public. Sometime in July to September 1942, Roosevelt gets Congress to declare war.
  4. Total wild-card idea. The Panay incident nearly escalates into war, and the US has to back down because it has no army to speak of. This leads to a proposal for major US rearmament, in part to stimulate the economy (heading back down in 1937-1938), and to sop up some of the unemployed men (there are lots of potential volunteers); but also because with the rise of Nazi Germany, the US needs a real army. By 1939, the US has about 800,000 men in service, including a strong tank corps. German operations in Spain and Poland are sufficiently appalling that the US public suppports joining the Allies. The US declares war - with the stricture that only volunteers for foreign duty will be sent overseas. The US sends a fully mechanized corps sized AEF to France by March 1940. (The AEF, arriving late, is held in reserve around Reims. When the panzers break through at Sedan, the AEF leads the counterattack and drives the Germans back to the Meuse.)
There, four alternate scenarios.
 
I think after Pearl Harbor it was Lend Lease to the Soviets that had been provided in the weeks before that was the deciding factor because Hitler's whole plan rested on knocking the Soviets out of the war which is kind of hard after LL and he felt he needed to get at those ships and that in the meantime America would be building up for war anyway.

I think he expected America to support the British, perhaps not as much as LL, but alot, it was attaching it to Stalin that convinced him that America was all in.

But, if you want an alternate path to WW2. Hitler announces that he did sink the SS Athenia instead of covering it up and the commander instead of using two torpedoes uses four and kills nearly everyone. 311 dead Americans in 1939 would be enough to shock Americans out of their isolationism a great deal so you could have something akin to LL a year earlier and after another ship or two goes down a DoW several months thereafter.

On 1 September 1939 Athenia, commanded by Captain James Cook, left Glasgow for Montreal via Liverpool and Belfast. She carried 1,103 passengers including about 500 Jewish refugees, 469 Canadians, 311 US citizens and 72 UK subjects, and 315 crew.

Despite, the clear indications that war would break out any day, she departed Liverpool at 13:00 hrs on 2 September, without recall, and on the evening of the 3rd was 60 nautical miles (110 km) south of Rockall and 200 nautical miles (370 km) northwest of Inishtrahull, Ireland, when she was sighted by the German submarine U-30 commanded by Oberleutnant Fritz-Julius Lemp around 16:30. Lemp later claimed that the fact that she was a darkened ship steering a zigzag course which seemed to be well off the normal shipping routes made him believe she was either a troopship, a Q-ship or an armed merchant cruiser.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Athenia
 
....
[*]Total wild-card idea. The Panay incident nearly escalates into war, and the US has to back down because it has no army to speak of. This leads to a proposal for major US rearmament, in part to stimulate the economy (heading back down in 1937-1938), and to sop up some of the unemployed men (there are lots of potential volunteers); but also because with the rise of Nazi Germany, the US needs a real army. By 1939, the US has about 800,000 men in service, including a strong tank corps. German operations in Spain and Poland are sufficiently appalling that the US public suppports joining the Allies. The US declares war - with the stricture that only volunteers for foreign duty will be sent overseas. The US sends a fully mechanized corps sized AEF to France by March 1940. (The AEF, arriving late, is held in reserve around Reims. When the panzers break through at Sedan, the AEF leads the counterattack and drives the Germans back to the Meuse.)

....

This one has been in the back of my mind for a year or two. Were I writing fiction It would be a definite story.

M2 Medium tanks vs PzII & III on the road to Soissons :)
 

TFSmith121

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The Japanese backed down in December, 1937...

Well.

  1. Total wild-card idea. The Panay incident nearly escalates into war, and the US has to back down because it has no army to speak of.
The Japanese backed down in December, 1937...largely because a) they had no oil reserves worth mentioning; b) they had no merchant marine to spare for an oceanic war (especially because what they actually had was roughly 60 percent of what was needed to support their peacetime economy; c) their fleet was in the middle of the refits and repairs that were finally "legal" after 1936; d) they had no deployable naval or army air forces beyond what was already in Korea, Manchuria, etc.; and e) what army they had was tied down in Manchuria et al making faces at the Soviets and Chinese.

If anything, the US would have been better off going to war with the Japanese in 1938 than in 1941. No need for the Atlantic Fleet, for one thing...

Best,
 
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