Reading up on Arizona, both hypotheses rely on a black powder explosion setting off her propellant, which is pretty Golden BB itself. Further, Arizona is the only American ship of that era to explode in such a fashion - notably Boise took a direct magazine hit and her propellant failed to explode long enough for flooding to put out the resulting fire, whereas I expect with a British ship such a hit would’ve blown it apart.Arizona. British cordite volatility in ww1 was unacceptable IMO but the hit on Hood was either a skim above the 12' belt that managed not to ricochet or Drachs proposal. The former is a golden BB and the other is something nobody expected and Hood was never designed to defend against. Run the same luck on Lexington not exploding.
So no, I don’t think Lexington would have the same odds of exploding. The shell hit placement may have been a Golden BB, but Hood exploding was a known flaw of British ships - see Barham, too. Arizona exploding was, based on other experience, a fluke.
Which is probably Lexington, given her newer FCS.See 1. Its probably a game of who hits first.
Most cruisers had even less deck armor, required multiple 500 lb bombs to take out, and even then were mostly just disabled instead of actually sunk.Deck was 2.25 in two layers + STS over magazines. I wouldn't want to bet on it any more than any other ship pre Nelsons. The TDS, influenced by the British, seemed to be acceptable as a void liquid system though American construction there tended to be dodgy.
Lexington would handle 500-lb bombs just fine.