Alternate US marijuana policy: effects on Mexico?

I have two scenarios today regarding US drug policy.

1) If marijuana and some other drugs were decriminalized--but NOT legalized--would that have any effects on the economic situation in Mexico or affect Mexican immigration to the U.S.?

2) If marijuana and some other drugs were LEGALIZED, in addition to some drugs being decriminalized, how would that affect the stability of Mexico and immigration to the U.S.?

Also, what about other Latin American countries--would the cartels simply disappear or instead shift to other substances?
 
The problem with the War on Drugs lies not with it's goals, but its methods.

Whatever drugs the U.S. and Mexico attempt to restrict, if they do so through violent and draconian methods, there will be an economic fallout. Of course, with marijuana less stigmatized, this drastic effect will be somewhat mitigated, but not by a lot.
 
I suppose I could ask a simpler question: even if the Drug War were less intense, would immigration from Mexico still be at levels high enough to fuel the debate about border security?
 
I suppose I could ask a simpler question: even if the Drug War were less intense, would immigration from Mexico still be at levels high enough to fuel the debate about border security?

Yes. The War on Drugs was never the primary reason Mexicans immigrated illegally to the U.S. It was mostly economic; they wanted a better life. First world pretty much always beats third world, even if you have to live in the shadows there.

There was actually a big spike post NAFTA because subsidized American agriculture droves millions of small-time farmers out of business and they came streaming over the border. There were others from other sectors of the Mexican economy that faced similar restructuring. Mexico might be a bit more prosperous without the Drug War but not enough to effect that calculus significantly.
 
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