We'll see if you have Carter run for the Presidency in '84'. You didn't mention who Reagan's running mate was.
Alternate U.S. Electoral History (1976-2012)
- Thread starter Jay Roosevelt
- Start date
1984: CARTER SEEKS TO KEEP WHITE HOUSE IN DEMOCRATIC HANDS AFTER RFK
After his extremely close re-election over Ronald Reagan in 1980, President Robert Kennedy found that his 2nd term went much smoother than his first. The economy began to rebound solidly and inflation was down and there were signs that the Soviet Union was beginning to lose some of it's influence as they continued to struggle in Afghanistan. Kennedy's popularity managed to return to Senate to the democrats in the '82 mid-terms by a narrow margin and by '84 Vice President Jimmy Carter was sending out very strong signals that he intended to seek the White House himself in '84. As the sitting V.P. Carter was expected to see little opposition from within the party, but former California Governor Jerry Brown would launch an insurgent campaign many likened to Carter's own campaign in '76 and put up more of a fight than expected. The race was close through April, but Carter eventually took the nomination after several key wins.
On the republican side, however, the race for the nomination would be one of the closest in history as '80 V.P. nominee George Bush was the favorite to win, but soon found himself locked in an extremely close race with Illinois Congressman John B. Anderson. There was talk in 1980 of Anderson running as an independent, but he opted to seek re-election to the House instead. He said in an interview in '82 that he did not plan to seek the Presidency in 1984, but after a strong 'draft Anderson' movement, he decided to run after all. Representing the party's right-wing was Pat Buchanan, who wasn't viewed as a serious threat to either of the two frontrunners. In the first crucial test of the campaign, the Michigan primary, Anderson managed a win by a razor-thin margin. Bush would win the next two contests in Hawaii and Kansas and Anderson would come back with a victory in the Iowa caucus.
The New Hampshire primary would prove to be a crucial point in the race with polls showing an extremely tight race. In the end, Anderson won out by 331 votes statewide. Bush responded with wins in Nevada and South Dakota while Anderson win Minnesota. The race would continue to be a back and forth affair all the way until the June 7th races which consisted of Montana, New Mexico, and the big two of New Jersey and California. Bush captured Montana and New Mexico relatively easily while Anderson took New Jersey. The race in California was too close to call until the early morning hours of the following day, at which point Anderson was declared the winner, crossing the 'line' of required delegates to clinch the GOP nomination.
Anderson spent much of the summer focused on uniting the republican party after a long and divisive nomination fight. Bush's endorsement in July went a long way toward preventing a floor fight at the convention, but many in the media felt there was still a chance of GOP infighting costing Anderson in November. As his running mate, Anderson selected Connecticut Senator Lowell P. Weicker, who many had expected to seek the nomination himself, but who declined. Carter faced a potential problem with the party's liberal wing, who had backed Jerry Brown during the primaries. Because of this, Brown was chosen as Carter's running mate in late July in a move the campaign hoped would unify the party. Polls indicated Carter had the slight edge heading into the conventions, but Anderson delivered what was universally considered one of the strongest convention addresses in recent years and came out of the RNC ahead by 3 points nationally. Carter failed to match his performance at the democratic convention and was up-staged by an up and coming southern Governor, Bill Clinton of Arkansas. By the time the debates came around Carter's lead had evaporated and Anderson was slightly ahead nationally. The debate produced several memorable moments, unfortunately most were gaffes by Carter, who seemed rattled at times and most pundits viewed Anderson as the clear victor.
The crucial states in the race were Illinois, California, Texas, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Michigan among others. Carter was banking on a strong performance in the south, but Anderson felt he could do as well in the north and midwest. On election night, the results were more one-sided than expected. Despite winning Texas and basically the entire south, along with New York, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, and West Virginia, Carter was undone in the midwest, where Anderson captured the key states of Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He also carried New Jersey. Anderson's victory in California put him over the top and made him the 40th President of the United States.
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Next up: 1988
After his extremely close re-election over Ronald Reagan in 1980, President Robert Kennedy found that his 2nd term went much smoother than his first. The economy began to rebound solidly and inflation was down and there were signs that the Soviet Union was beginning to lose some of it's influence as they continued to struggle in Afghanistan. Kennedy's popularity managed to return to Senate to the democrats in the '82 mid-terms by a narrow margin and by '84 Vice President Jimmy Carter was sending out very strong signals that he intended to seek the White House himself in '84. As the sitting V.P. Carter was expected to see little opposition from within the party, but former California Governor Jerry Brown would launch an insurgent campaign many likened to Carter's own campaign in '76 and put up more of a fight than expected. The race was close through April, but Carter eventually took the nomination after several key wins.
On the republican side, however, the race for the nomination would be one of the closest in history as '80 V.P. nominee George Bush was the favorite to win, but soon found himself locked in an extremely close race with Illinois Congressman John B. Anderson. There was talk in 1980 of Anderson running as an independent, but he opted to seek re-election to the House instead. He said in an interview in '82 that he did not plan to seek the Presidency in 1984, but after a strong 'draft Anderson' movement, he decided to run after all. Representing the party's right-wing was Pat Buchanan, who wasn't viewed as a serious threat to either of the two frontrunners. In the first crucial test of the campaign, the Michigan primary, Anderson managed a win by a razor-thin margin. Bush would win the next two contests in Hawaii and Kansas and Anderson would come back with a victory in the Iowa caucus.
The New Hampshire primary would prove to be a crucial point in the race with polls showing an extremely tight race. In the end, Anderson won out by 331 votes statewide. Bush responded with wins in Nevada and South Dakota while Anderson win Minnesota. The race would continue to be a back and forth affair all the way until the June 7th races which consisted of Montana, New Mexico, and the big two of New Jersey and California. Bush captured Montana and New Mexico relatively easily while Anderson took New Jersey. The race in California was too close to call until the early morning hours of the following day, at which point Anderson was declared the winner, crossing the 'line' of required delegates to clinch the GOP nomination.
Anderson spent much of the summer focused on uniting the republican party after a long and divisive nomination fight. Bush's endorsement in July went a long way toward preventing a floor fight at the convention, but many in the media felt there was still a chance of GOP infighting costing Anderson in November. As his running mate, Anderson selected Connecticut Senator Lowell P. Weicker, who many had expected to seek the nomination himself, but who declined. Carter faced a potential problem with the party's liberal wing, who had backed Jerry Brown during the primaries. Because of this, Brown was chosen as Carter's running mate in late July in a move the campaign hoped would unify the party. Polls indicated Carter had the slight edge heading into the conventions, but Anderson delivered what was universally considered one of the strongest convention addresses in recent years and came out of the RNC ahead by 3 points nationally. Carter failed to match his performance at the democratic convention and was up-staged by an up and coming southern Governor, Bill Clinton of Arkansas. By the time the debates came around Carter's lead had evaporated and Anderson was slightly ahead nationally. The debate produced several memorable moments, unfortunately most were gaffes by Carter, who seemed rattled at times and most pundits viewed Anderson as the clear victor.
The crucial states in the race were Illinois, California, Texas, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Michigan among others. Carter was banking on a strong performance in the south, but Anderson felt he could do as well in the north and midwest. On election night, the results were more one-sided than expected. Despite winning Texas and basically the entire south, along with New York, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, and West Virginia, Carter was undone in the midwest, where Anderson captured the key states of Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He also carried New Jersey. Anderson's victory in California put him over the top and made him the 40th President of the United States.
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Next up: 1988
I can't see Anderson beating Bush for the GOP nomination. Bush was a moderate conservative, while Anderson was a liberal-leaning moderate. Bush has more of a chance of winning the nomination by relying on the less extreme conservative vote, which is still larger than the liberal vote in the 1980s GOP.
Other than that, this is excellent.
Other than that, this is excellent.
If he was the failed GOP VP candidate in '80 he would be tainted. Now Jack Kemp or Bob Dole may have better chances; but is possible that those two split their primary support, Anderson slips in with surprise wins in Iowa and New Hampshire and the whole thing snowballs from there, I suppose.
Yep, the detail for 1976-80 was excellent, but not as good for 80-84.
What about the Falklands/Malvinas? Reagan's close relationship with Thatcher led him to give a lot of covert assistance to the UK during that conflict. Would Kennedy have been more neutral? Although maybe not, as he would have been less well disposed to the rightitst juntas in Latin America than Reagan - and no support for Contras for instance.
But without US support in the Falklands, maybe no British victory, and maybe no Thatcher wins in 83 and 87? I think Reagan's victory boosted Thatcher's morale and led to Germany turning to the Christian Democrats too.
The more I read the 1980 account, the more it sounds like 2012! With RFK's hostage rescue being his Osama Bin Laden moment.
Honestly, I don't know enough about other countries to comment on those things in any meaningful way. I think it's safe to say RFK was a lot more neutral in the Falklands than Reagan, but again, I'm not very knowledgeable on that conflict so I didn't want to touch on that.
The butterflies would have to be different. If the US administration ITTL does not put the Pershing IIs into Germany, SPD-chancellor Helmut Schmidt would be under a lot less internal pressure.
If he manages to keep his party in control, he might either prevent the liberal FDP from switching sides (and thus ousting Schmidt in favour of Kohl in '82), or the SPD might be in a better position to challenge Kohl in the 1983 elections and turn Kohl's tenure from a plus-record of 16 years into a minus-record of one year.
My bets, though, would be that the American butterflies do not influence the FRG that much in the 1970s/80s; thus a) the Green party develops, b) FDP switches to the "bürgerliche" coalition c) probably Kohl, perhaps Albrecht or if later on, Späth, becomes CDU-chancellor and probably hold on to power at least until the 1990 (or without reunification 1991) elections.
Fair enough, that might be something I'll look at in the future as I'm very interested in the conflict.
Carter spoke a lot about the human rights abuses in Latin America but actually did very little, I'm wondering if RFK is a little more pro-active.
There's so many potential ATLs here for the Kennedy presidency 1981-85. Wonder what role Ted Kennedy would have? Would he be positioning himself for 1988?
I think 'the Eighties' as we know them - free market policies in the US and UK - would have happened eventually, who knows they might have happened in the mid-to-late 70s had Heath not u-turned in 1972 and Humphrey beat Nixon in 68, leaving the way clear for possibly Reagan or another economic liberal in 72.
I'll probably not be finishing this TL as far as write-ups, so I'll just post the wikiboxes for what I already have done:
And here is the complete list of elections, including the ones I didn't get to wikiboxes of yet:
1976: Robert F. Kennedy/Jimmy Carter (D) defeat Gerald Ford/Bob Dole (R)
1980: Robert F. Kennedy/Jimmy Carter (D) defeat Ronald Reagan/George Bush (R)
1984: John B. Anderson/Lowell P. Weicker (R) defeat Jimmy Carter/Jerry Brown (D)
1988: John B. Anderson/Lowell P. Weicker (R) defeat Bill Clinton/John Glenn (D)
1992: Mario Cuomo/Douglas Wilder (D) defeat Bob Dole/Paul Laxalt (R)
1996: Colin Powell/John McCain (R) defeat Mario Cuomo/Douglas Wilder (D) and H. Ross Perot/Angus King (I)
2000: Colin Powell/John McCain (R) defeat Al Gore/Paul Wellstone (D)
2004: John McCain/Elizabeth Dole (R) defeat Howard Dean/John Edwards (D)
2008: John McCain/Elizabeth Dole (R) defeat John Kerry/Mark Warner (D)
2012: Hillary Clinton/Brian Schweitzer (D) defeat Elizabeth Dole/Mitt Romney (R)
And here is the complete list of elections, including the ones I didn't get to wikiboxes of yet:
1976: Robert F. Kennedy/Jimmy Carter (D) defeat Gerald Ford/Bob Dole (R)
1980: Robert F. Kennedy/Jimmy Carter (D) defeat Ronald Reagan/George Bush (R)
1984: John B. Anderson/Lowell P. Weicker (R) defeat Jimmy Carter/Jerry Brown (D)
1988: John B. Anderson/Lowell P. Weicker (R) defeat Bill Clinton/John Glenn (D)
1992: Mario Cuomo/Douglas Wilder (D) defeat Bob Dole/Paul Laxalt (R)
1996: Colin Powell/John McCain (R) defeat Mario Cuomo/Douglas Wilder (D) and H. Ross Perot/Angus King (I)
2000: Colin Powell/John McCain (R) defeat Al Gore/Paul Wellstone (D)
2004: John McCain/Elizabeth Dole (R) defeat Howard Dean/John Edwards (D)
2008: John McCain/Elizabeth Dole (R) defeat John Kerry/Mark Warner (D)
2012: Hillary Clinton/Brian Schweitzer (D) defeat Elizabeth Dole/Mitt Romney (R)
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Wow! Even from this distance, Manchester England and not in depth knowledge of all the American personalities, 1992 must have been one polarised election! 
I wonder how bad Anderson's second term must have been for Mario Cuomo to get elected.
Thanks for this, it's given me some ideas for eventually starting a TL of my own... from a British perspective, I've often wondered how Thatcher's Premiership might have turned out without this massive supporting presence in the White House.
I wonder how bad Anderson's second term must have been for Mario Cuomo to get elected.
Thanks for this, it's given me some ideas for eventually starting a TL of my own... from a British perspective, I've often wondered how Thatcher's Premiership might have turned out without this massive supporting presence in the White House.