Alternate U.S. Electoral History (1976-2012)

Jay Roosevelt

Jay Roosevelt

1976: AS WATERGATE LINGERS, KENNEDY BRINGS NEW HOPE
The aftermath of the Watergate scandal lingered heavily over the election of 1976. President Gerald Ford had done as good a job as anyone could have reasonably expected of him given the circumstances he was thrust into, having never even been elected Vice President before taking over the Presidency after Richard Nixon's resignation. Still, there was a sense that Ford was "just a guy", that he was somehow not a "real" President and that it was only a matter of time before voters chose their new leader. Many thought Ford wouldn't even seek the republican nomination to run for a term of his own in '76 and even when he did, with heavy competition from former California Governor Ronald Reagan, a hero of the party's right wing, Ford barely did clinch the nomination.

The democratic primaries, however, were another matter. It was a classic David vs. Goliath story with the prohibitive frontrunner, New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy finding himself in an unexpectedly right race with insurgent Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter, who came out of seemingly nowhere to mount a serious challenge to Kennedy, whose campaign had not prepared for a long, drawn out nomination fight. Kennedy found that Carter had strong support in key regions in the south; indeed it was Carter's stunning upset in the Florida primary that really established him as a serious threat to Kennedy. Up to that point Carter had made a name for himself by finishing solidly in 2nd place in Iowa, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Vermont, but it was Florida that really made people take notice. Carter would go on to win four out of the next seven contests, mostly in the southern states of North Carolina, Texas, and his home state of Georgia, but he also managed to win another upset, this time in Indiana, proving he could win in outside the south. Kennedy, however, picked up key wins in Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. It was ultimately these wins that set the stage for Kennedy building a strong lead over Carter until, following Kennedy's win in the vital Michigan primary, Carter was forced to concede.

Kennedy finally had the democratic Presidential nomination in hand. He had come close eight years prior before being shot at the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles after winning the California primary. It was touch and go for nearly a week, but Bobby survived; he was, however, forced to drop out of the race, essentially handing the nomination to then Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who would go on to lose to Richard Nixon in the general election. Many urged Kennedy to run in '72, but Bobby saw the polls showing a wide lead for Nixon over most of the democratic field and while a Nixon/Kennedy matchup was by far the closest of the potential matchups in hypothetical polling, Bobby wisely sat out 1972 and set his sights in '76. Fate had dealt him a kind hand - or was it Richard Nixon who did that? The fallout from Watergate had tarnished the republican party to a large degree, but Bobby also knew the democrats still had scars of their own showing from Vietnam, a war Kennedy himself had publicly opposed in '68.

Still, polls showed a relatively close race shaping up. Ford wasn't directly blamed for Watergate and Vietnam was no longer a major issue. It was clear from the polling that the southern vote would be key to any democratic victory. The south, once solidly democratic, had become a swing region thanks to unrest over the democratic-backed civil rights and voting rights acts. Republicans had taken advantage with their "southern strategy" and it had worked brilliantly, putting the south in play in a big way. Despite Ford not being overly popular in the south, Kennedy himself wasn't really either. He was viewed by many as an outside, a northern elitist, as too liberal in many ways. But more than that, many southerners simply felt Bobby Kennedy didn't understand them or their way of life. It was this fact that drove Bobby to go against the advice of the democratic party powers that be and choose Jimmy Carter himself as his running mate. The power brokers within the party wanted John Glenn on the ticket as they viewed the Senator and former astronaut as a potential future Presidential candidate, but Kennedy wasn't as confident as they were that the south would 'fall in line' on election day and Carter had proven during the primaries that he could win over voters in his home region.

President Ford, meanwhile, struggled to get away from the notion that he was somehow not "legitimate ." While he had managed to fend off Reagan for the nomination, many pundits felt Reagan might actually be the better national candidate as he was completely removed from Watergate and untouched by Nixon. For this reason, Ford was pressed hard to choose Reagan as his running mate, both to unite the party and also as an insurance policy in case Ford lost as party leaders felt Reagan could be a legitimate candidate in 1980 in the event of a GOP loss in '76. He would also give them a better shot at California, which was the key toss-up state that most felt Kennedy could not afford to lose. However, Reagan wasn't interested in the V.P. slot and instead Kansas Senator Bob Dole was chosen as Ford's running mate over Vice President Nelson Rockefeller.

Coming out of the conventions, polls were beginning to break toward Kennedy. The selection of Jimmy Carter as his running mate had shored up enough support in the south that it now appeared the region would, at worst, split evenly, which was good enough as long as Kennedy could carry California, a traditionally republican state, but one that his brother had come so close to carrying in 1960 and Lyndon Johnson did carry four years later. The other big toss-up states were Michigan, Ford's home state, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois along with New Jersey, which had started polling solidly for Ford, but by fall was running dead even. The Kennedy strategy was to keep Carter close to home, campaigning in the south, particularly Texas and Georgia. Bobby himself would spend a lot of time in California, but they couldn't put all their eggs into one basket, so he often found himself in crucial Illinois and Ohio as well.

The Presidential debate - the first since Bobby's brother and Richard Nixon had shared the stage in 1960 - was held in late September and proved to be the deciding factor in the race in the eyes of most pundits. Kennedy came out against the Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade ruling for the first time, emphasizing his social conservative streak. Previously he had walked a fine line between "respecting the law" and saying abortions should be allowed in cases of rape, incest, and the health of the mother. While his position on abortion had long been suspected - even assumed by many - the campaign chose the debates as the key moment to officially come out against the ruling to hopefully appeal to social conservatives in the south. The stance alienated many liberals and women, but it likely won Kennedy at least a state or two in the south. Ford gave a thoroughly uninspiring performance and made one major gaffe, saying that "there [was] no Soviet domination of eastern Europe and there never will be under a Ford administration." The gaffe, most pundits agree, essentially sealed Ford's fate.

Following the debate, polls showed Kennedy with a n 8-10 point lead over Ford and it appeared he was headed for a big win. On election night, the choice of Jimmy Carter wound up paying off in a big way as the ticket was able to carry Texas, Louisiana, Georgia, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, North Carolina, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Ford managed to hold onto Florida by the narrowest of margins, but when the states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Illinois were called for Kennedy within 20 minutes of each other the networks officially declared Robert Kennedy the next President of the United States. The democrats also gained several seats in the Senate and retained strong control of the House.


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Next up: 1980
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Tony

Then it would be Bobby facing all the mess in the next 4 years:D Looking forward to seeing how he's going to turn things around:D
 
Jay Roosevelt

Jay Roosevelt

1980: RFK FACES MANY ROADBLOCKS TO RE-ELECTION AS REAGAN RE-IGNITES CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT
Robert F. Kennedy began his Presidency with the support of a hopeful nation; many expected nothing short of the new President fulfilling the lost hopes of his late brother's administration. Reality would prove to be a much tougher road for Bobby Kennedy, however, as events both domestically and globally forced him to take many unpopular actions that he felt were, in the long run, in the national interest. Almost immediately the economy became a major problem as the new administration faced a crippling combo of high unemployment and skyrocketing inflation. To make matters worse, the energy crisis that had been an issue for several years prior to Kennedy's election, had reached crisis level in the eyes of many Americans.

In the first two years of his Presidency, Kennedy saw his approval ratings drop from 68% upon taking office to 37% in the fall of '78, when the republican party made major gains in the mid-term elections, taking a narrow margin of victory in the U.S. Senate and making big gains in the House. Contributing to his issues was not just the problems he faced, but the often controversial solutions he offered. To half inflation, the new Kennedy-appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, raised interest rates in a highly-controversial decision. The immediate affects of the decision was the economy falling deeper into recession, but within three years inflation was largely under control. The Kennedy administration came under fire for the effects the raising of interest rates had on the farming and construction sectors and in 1977 Congress passed a series of measures aimed at reducing the effects of the rate hike on these sectors. Still, many within Kennedy's own party were highly critical of the administration's backing of Volcker's decision and Volcker himself would become a symbol for many liberals of what many on the left viewed as the 'failure' of the Kennedy White House to stand up to cries from the right to embrace a more conservative fiscal policy to deal with the economy.

The energy crisis would prove to be even tougher to deal with and despite several measures taken the crisis would continue to be a major issue through the early 1980's when things began to stabilize. Kennedy faced a major international crisis head-on when he, at the urging of Vice President Jimmy Carter, hosted peace negotiations between Israel and Egypt in 1979. While Kennedy himself had serious doubts that American involvement would be able to bring an end to the war, Carter, along with several key advisers, managed to convince him it was a worthwhile endeavor. Ironically, it was Carter's involvement that may have saved the eventual peace treaty as Kennedy put the V.P. in a prominent role negotiating between the two sides and eventually found that they responded better to Carter's as a go-between than they had Kennedy himself. The Camp David Accords would become a signature foreign policy achievement for the Kennedy administration despite many in the media pushing the notion that Kennedy had been "rescued" by the Vice President in negotiations that were, at one point, all but over prior to Carter's involvement.

Kennedy would again be tested when the Iranian revolution began in 1978 and finally when the Shah was forced into exile in early '79. But the real trouble hit when the Iranian hostage crisis hit in November of '79. The U.S. Embassy had been stormed and 52 Americans taken hostage. The hostage-takers demanded that the Shah be returned to Iran to face trial and execution, that all Iranian assets in America, which had been frozen, be released, and for the U.S. to formally apologize for 'interfering' in the internal affairs of Iran in 1953 when the CIA backed the coup that put the Shah in power to begin with. Kennedy appeared stuck between a rock and a hard place; he faced criticism from many Americans for not using military force; many hawks even advocated the use of nuclear weapons. Instead, Kennedy took a more measured approach and on new years day 1980 ordered Operation Eagle Claw, which was to attempt to free the hostages by force. Despite one of the eight helicopters being lost and it's crew killed, the other seven made it through and the resulting raid on the Embassy resulted in 48 of the hostages being rescued successfully while four were killed during the raid. Eleven others were wounded, but later recovered, while all the hostage-takers were killed at the scene.

While the administration took some initial blame for the loss of the helicopter crew and the four hostages who were killed, the public largely viewed the losses as acceptable and in many ways unavoidable under the circumstances. Kennedy's approval rating rose to 42% after ordering the rescue. Later in the month, Kennedy faced a crucial moment in his political career when he delivered his fourth state of the union address to Congress. Kennedy's chances at a second term were dim at best and most pundits viewed this speech as his best chance at turning his fortunes around. Kennedy's speech was almost universally deemed a success, even by many republicans, and his approval rating climbed to 46% in it's aftermath. Kennedy was praised for his ability to inspire the American people in tough times, something many pundits compared to Franklin D. Roosevelt during the depression and world war II. Still, Kennedy was at a crucial point in his political career; while inflation had largely been brought under control by '80, the unemployment rate was still slightly above 8% and the energy crisis showed few signs of letting up. To make matters worse, many within Kennedy's own party felt betrayed by his "run to the right", both by ordering the rescue in Iran and by backing the interest rate hike that most economists agreed had greatly helped reduce inflation. Things were improving, but not quickly enough for many Americans. Kennedy was still popular in many circles and maintained strong personal approval ratings, but questions remained as to whether the economy would improve enough by election day for RFK to win a second term.

Kennedy was faced with another potential international crisis when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. Kennedy was again put in a tough spot and his reaction to the invasion would no doubt play a big role in his chances of re-election. Kennedy found an ally in Texas Congressman Charlie Wilson, who was supporting a plan to arm the Afghan rebels in their war against the Soviet invaders. While this was not made public at the time for obvious reasons, the events would later be re-told in the film "Charlie Wilson's War." In many ways Kennedy's biggest ally in terms of public opinion on the issue was the Afghans themselves and their success in giving the Soviets much more of a fight than most would have expected. The buzz phrase at the time was that the Russians had "their own Vietnam" on their hands and while some pressed the administration for stronger action, few wanted to risk another Cuban Missile crisis type event over a conflict halfway around the world.

The frontrunner for the republican nomination was former actor and California Governor Ronald Reagan, who had very nearly ousted then-President Gerald Ford and taken the republican nomination four years earlier. This time, Reagan found his primary competition in the form of former CIA Director and Congressman George Bush. Initially far ahead in the polls, Reagan's campaign manager decided to pursue an "above the fray" strategy and not attend many of the debates and campaign events where the rest of the republican field would often gather. However, once Bush began to beat out Reagan in several polls, the former Governor was forced to take a more aggressive approach. Despite losing the Puerto Rico primary to Bush due to focusing exclusively on New Hampshire, Reagan easily won New Hampshire and re-captured his frontrunner status. One of the most memorable moments of the campaign came during a debate, paid for by the Reagan campaign, that was to be attended by any republican candidates who wished to attend. Bush, who was unaware of this fact until he took the stage, refused to debate and during a heated exchange, Reagan's microphone was ordered to be cut off, to which Reagan replied "I paid for this microphone, Mr. Green!", referring to Nashua Telegraph Editor Jon Breen.

Reagan's only other semi-significant competition was Illinois Congressman John B. Anderson, who represented the GOP's more moderate wing. While Anderson began with some momentum, it had largely faded by New Hampshire. National polls showed Anderson as a potentially viable independent candidate and for a time he flirted with the notion of running a third party campaign, even telling his advisers at one point that he had decided to enter the race, but he would change his mind at the last minute and instead simply exit the race for the nomination. Reagan would go on to lose a handful of contests to Bush, but by spring had the nomination well in hand. He was beloved by the party's right wing, but many moderates remained skeptical of Reagan. Bush famously called his economic platform "voodoo economics" due to it's promise to raise revenues and cut taxes at the same time. National polls showed many voters nationwide had similar doubts about Reagan and his viability to actually be President. Most voters liked Reagan personally, just as most liked Kennedy, but Reagan faced attacks from the left that he wanted to take the country back to the Herbert Hoover era, that he would do away with medicare, medicaid, social security, and other popular programs, and many other accusations.

By the summer of '80 the economy was continuing it's painfully slow improvement and while Kennedy saw a slight boost from this, many voters remained concerned. Reagan famously asked voters if they were "better off today than four years ago" and many voters simply came to the conclusion that they were not. Others admitted they were not, but couldn't blame Kennedy for everything and remained skeptical - or even afraid - of how far to the right Reagan would take the country if elected. National polls showed an extremely tight race developing; while many were skeptical of Reagan, they were also disappointed in Kennedy. By the time the conventions were held, national polls showed Reagan with a 1% lead nationally. The debate, held in early October, was viewed as the crucial moment in the campaign as polls had continued to bounce back and forth between a tie and 1%-2% leads for either candidate. In the debate, Reagan out-performed expectations, but Kennedy was also said to have had a very strong performance. Reagan, many pundits said, had gone a long way toward soothing voter's fears that he was the "right wing devil" many on the left had made him out to be while Kennedy was said to have actually won the debate overall.

As election day approached the polls had barely moved following the debate. The crucial states appeared to be Texas, California, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan. Privately, many in the Kennedy campaign were concerned by the numbers coming out of California and Texas, two large states they had carried in '76. But Reagan had homefield advantage in California and Texas had grown considerably more conservative over the years and Reagan had successfully portrayed himself as a 'cowboy' of sorts in the state. Few pundits saw a clear path to victory for Kennedy without carrying at least one of the two states as he would then have to sweep the other three big states as well as hold onto several other toss-ups like Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Wisconsin. It appeared Reagan had the edge in New Jersey and Florida as well as Washington state and he was making in-roads into the deep south, where Georgia was also a concern. Many pundits viewed Reagan as the slight favorite heading into election night coverage and some were even suggesting that the electoral college winner might not even carry the popular vote.

The race dragged on until the early morning hours. Kennedy had big wins early in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, but Reagan had taken Florida, New Jersey, and his home state of California. As the polls closed in Alaska, the three big states still outstanding were Texas, Missouri, and Illinois and the winner of the election would be determined by whoever won the majority of the available electoral votes. Finally, after two hours of guessing, Reagan was declared the winner in Texas and many began to feel a Reagan victory on the horizon. But then Kennedy was projected the winner in Illinois, leaving the state of Missouri and it's 12 electoral votes as the deciding state in the 1980 Presidential election. It was a razor-thin margin, too close to call. A recount was initiated, meanwhile the popular vote count was also in doubt. The two candidates had exchanged leads several times and it seemed likely the final tally wouldn't be known until all the absentee ballots had been counted. Finally, at 7:12AM EST the Missouri Secretary of State held a live press conference where he announced that Missouri and it's 12 electoral votes had been won by President Robert F. Kennedy by a mere 127 votes statewide. Reagan was said to have been advised to contest the results, but after several hours of consideration and, reportedly a candid phone conversation with former President Richard Nixon, Reagan decided against challenging the results and conceded the race to Kennedy, who became the first democratic President to win re-election since Franklin Roosevelt. Reagan had won 10 more states than Kennedy had and would eventually come within 0.2% of the popular vote lead, but fell just short in the electoral college with 266 electoral votes. Still, many wondered whether Reagan may have ignited a conservative "revolution" of sorts within the republican party. The years ahead would provide the answer...


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Next up: 1984
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