Alternate "Taiwans"

Spain: Spanish Morocco, Spanish Sahara
France: Tunisia, French Indochina
Italy: Libya, Ethiopia

China: Tibet? (esp. if government in exile is officially Buddhist)
 
Neo-Incan empire in Vilcabamba.
Roman Emperor Nepos in Dalmatia.

I don't think all "alternate Taiwans" are rump states. Neither they are necessarily government-in-exiles.
Rumps states generally control their core territory and nominal capital cities. (Poland-Lithuania commonwealth, Late Byzantine Empire)
Governments in exile reside in foreign countries, and not in their claimed territory. (various WWII exiles in London)
Whereas when we say "Taiwan", we think of entity that claims direct unbroken succession from older, larger state, resides on what is part of their claimed territory, exercises sovereign power there, but all of their core territories are lost to other country, usually one that's also claims to be sole legitimate successor of previous larger country.
 
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MrP

Banned
Which island of Indonesia would be most suitable as a rump state in the event of a post-independence civil war?
 
Which island of Indonesia would be most suitable as a rump state in the event of a post-independence civil war?

That all depends on what the civil war looks like, and who holds which islands.

Assuming that the civil war is Java vs. the rest, then Sumatra is probably the best bet.
 
Portugal : Madeira or Azores - modern

Salazarist Portugal : The two above plus either Angola or Mozambique or Cape Verde

And of course there is the OTL exemple when the Portuguese fled to Rio and established the capital there at Rio de Janeiro. Had Dom João VI chose to remain in Brazil in 1820 when the Constituional Revolution happened we could have seen a split with a Monarchist Brazil and a potential Republican Portugal.
 
I don't think that's a given. The revolutionary government would need to have the loyalty of the Navy, or backing from a foreign state with naval capabilities and willing to provide transport, and it assumes that the revolutionary government isn't busy with opposition in CONUS. A government viewed as odious by the great powers at the time (I.E. a communist USA in the early 20th century) could easily find itself diplomatically isolated and its outlying territories under the de facto control of foreign forces.

That is essentially how it worked in my Communist America timeline. The UK is not directly involved in the revolutionary war beyond the provision of some arms and advisors to the Whites. But when the White government evacuates to Cuba, the Reds don't have the loyalty of enough of the navy to interdict it. The White aligned ships block their attempt, and the UK essentially draws the figurative line in the sand post-evacuation. They make Cuba the tripwire for a general war against the revolutionary government, and though neither are prepared for it given the context (Great Depression, Naval treaties, new revolutionary government), it's enough to put off plans of settling accounts years down the road.

Naturally, this entails some level of ongoing financial support on the part of the UK, but having a chokehold on the Caribbean is a good strategic leverage point given how economically and militarily important the Panama Canal is to America.
 
Iceland was a part of Denmark before 1944. In a Nazi victory scenario, you could possibly see the US and the UK set up the Kingdom of Denmark in exile on Iceland, Greenland, and the Faroes together. Likewise for the Netherlands in Suriname and the Dutch Antilles, to keep the Nazis from gaining a foothold in the Americas. And of course, there's Free France.
 
South Vietnam: Phu Quoc has been suggested before, but I'm not sure if it would be capable of sustaining an effective alternate government.
Yemen: Socotra at a glance is obvious, but as with Phu Quoc there are serious questions as to whether it would be sustainable or not without foreign aid.
Poland: There were serious attempts to establish some sort of colony in Brazilian Parana, but they were noticed by the Brazilian government in due time and promptly driven to a standstill. If Brazil were not to end these investments, viewing them as an economic boon for the State, then it may be theoretically possible for a large enough Polish presence to exist that it could break-away and become the basis the Polish Government in Exile. That is a hug stretch though considering it is largely dependent on the goodwill of Brazil, continuing fiance by Poland, as well as Polish-Brazilians deciding to turn their loyalty to Poland.
Greece: Crete is a fairly obvious one, especially if the DSE managed to get the upper hand in the Civil War. Cyprus could be thrown in as well, though the Turks might not take too kindly to that.
Spain: The Balearic Islands would have easily functioned as a Francoist Government-in-Exile during the 1936-1943 period should the Republicans get the upper hand, the Italians having a major interest in establishing bases or even annexing them in conjunction with Spanish Morocco. That said they would be more of a puppet state than anything by that point, and there is no real certainty that Mussolini would keep him around. The Canary Islands could be considered as well I suppose.

The French were hoping to keep a base in Asia and be a power in the region. Dien Bien Phu largely ended that. Maybe that and the Paracel Islands (China only took them in 1974 when an opportunity arose) are kept as choice bits? A kind of Hong Kong analogue?
 
South Vietnam: Phu Quoc has been suggested before, but I'm not sure if it would be capable of sustaining an effective alternate government.
Yemen: Socotra at a glance is obvious, but as with Phu Quoc there are serious questions as to whether it would be sustainable or not without foreign aid.
Poland: There were serious attempts to establish some sort of colony in Brazilian Parana, but they were noticed by the Brazilian government in due time and promptly driven to a standstill. If Brazil were not to end these investments, viewing them as an economic boon for the State, then it may be theoretically possible for a large enough Polish presence to exist that it could break-away and become the basis the Polish Government in Exile. That is a hug stretch though considering it is largely dependent on the goodwill of Brazil, continuing fiance by Poland, as well as Polish-Brazilians deciding to turn their loyalty to Poland.
Greece: Crete is a fairly obvious one, especially if the DSE managed to get the upper hand in the Civil War. Cyprus could be thrown in as well, though the Turks might not take too kindly to that.
Spain: The Balearic Islands would have easily functioned as a Francoist Government-in-Exile during the 1936-1943 period should the Republicans get the upper hand, the Italians having a major interest in establishing bases or even annexing them in conjunction with Spanish Morocco. That said they would be more of a puppet state than anything by that point, and there is no real certainty that Mussolini would keep him around. The Canary Islands could be considered as well I suppose.

A Better one for Poland might be Trinidad and Tobago, they had a Colony there in the Mid 16th Century that inevitably got sold to the Dutch. If they had managed to Hold onto it, it might be possible for a Polish State to exist post 3rd partition.
 
Guiana and the French Caribbean territories work. I don't remember if this was ever dealt with in AANW but maybe they became a Taiwan analogue in that scenario? Even if they didn't, it's easy to see them holding independent elections when they realize with great sadness that the patriae won't be liberated any time soon.

Come to think of it, AANW offers potential Taiwan allegories. The Netherlands could have one in its Caribbean territories, too (St. Maartens, Aruba, etc.).

Other alternate French Taiwans include Gabon and Dijoubti. Both had significant portions of their population that wanted to be departments but it fell through. That could have gone in a different direction and then some catastrophe could have happened on the mainland, driving a lot of refugees and the remaining French military from the previous regime to them where they set up shop. The native population of those places is also small enough that the French newcomers could outnumber them like the Han with Taiwanese aborigines, something you can't say about Algeria or Tunisia.

An additional one might be had with the Estado Novo regime in Portugal ending in a significantly worse way, with an actual Communist coup. An abortive one actually happened in 1975. Maybe Salazar doesn't slip in 1968 and lives ten more years. IOTL the regime pretty much fell apart in a way that mirrored Gorbachev's reforms. A moderate took over after a hardliner (in this case it was Marcelo Caetano) and tried to fix the system but people took their newfound political freedom and used it to decide they didn't like the system and wanted it gone. If Caetano hadn't liberalized the Estado Novo could have hung on for a while longer. This causes resentment to build that much more, and a guerilla movement of students, hardcore radicals, trade unioniests, and disaffected draftees starts on the mainland. This movement has about 2,000 fighters when Salazar dies in 1978. I believe this is comparable to what the IRA had at the time. When Salazar dies after a long illness, Portugal falls into chaos. Disgruntled elements of the armed forces partner with the guerillas much as large parts of the Russian Army sided with the Bolsheviks to seize power. A civil war ensues with the rightwingers and nearly all of the Portugese Legion and PIDE on one side and the Communists on the other. With the mainland falling into chaos the Portugese situation in mainland Africa quickly collapses. This dooms the rightwingers; the imminent loss of the Empire is the final blow to their legitimatcy on top of years of building resentment. With their position on the mainland deteriorating, they join Portugese refugees from Angola, Mozambique, and Portugese Guinea (most of whom, like the Pied Noirs, are conservative) in forming right-wing Taiwan analogues on the Azores, Sao Tome and Principe, and Cape Verde. They receive support in this from Rhodesia and South Africa, their traditional African allies. Those countries IOTL did a lot of messing around abroad, including in the Comoros with Bob Menard's various coups, so this seems in character for them. The West decides to make its peace with all of this rather than risk losing those critically strategically important places (Azores namely) to Communism. For anyone asking why they allow it to happen in the Portugese metropole in the first place, remember Franco is out of power and Jimmy Carter is leader of the free world. Aka the only President who would have ever allowed the Sandinistas to win in any circumstances or for the Iran Hostage Crisis to not result in war. The critical U.S. interests being protected (namely the Azores) makes his decision easier still.
 
This might be a bit over the top, but could a British-backed Qing Dynasty take refuge in the Kowloon Walled City? It was land claimed by the Qing, and was out of British hands anyways. Less implausibly, could Hong Kong serve as a British rump state? (Perhaps in a Nazi victory-Japanese defeat scenario where the US decides to take away the British Empire's more valuable territories?)
 
So, are the Andaman and Nicobar Islands a good Indian "Taiwan" if India suffers from some sort of revolution? Of course, it would rely on whether the loyalists still control much of the Indian Navy.
 
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