Alternate "Taiwans"

rvbomally

I've noticed a trend among alternate histories involving the destruction of a great power during a (usually communist) revolution: the old regime fleeing to a geographically isolated region and continuing to claim the mainland, while the revolutionary government continues to claim the region. The obvious OTL example, and doubtless the inspiration for ATL examples, is the China/Taiwan situation. So, I wanted to open up a forum for discussing this phenomenon, particularly possible "Taiwans" for commonly-seen great powers. So, here's a list based on what I have seen and used.

United States: Hawaii, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Alaska
United Kingdom: Ireland/Ulster, Australia, New Zealand, Canada
France: Corsica, Algeria
Russia: Alaska, Crimea
Japan: Taiwan, Hokkaido, Sakhalin
 
Last edited:
Ariosto

Ariosto

South Vietnam: Phu Quoc has been suggested before, but I'm not sure if it would be capable of sustaining an effective alternate government.
Yemen: Socotra at a glance is obvious, but as with Phu Quoc there are serious questions as to whether it would be sustainable or not without foreign aid.
Poland: There were serious attempts to establish some sort of colony in Brazilian Parana, but they were noticed by the Brazilian government in due time and promptly driven to a standstill. If Brazil were not to end these investments, viewing them as an economic boon for the State, then it may be theoretically possible for a large enough Polish presence to exist that it could break-away and become the basis the Polish Government in Exile. That is a hug stretch though considering it is largely dependent on the goodwill of Brazil, continuing fiance by Poland, as well as Polish-Brazilians deciding to turn their loyalty to Poland.
Greece: Crete is a fairly obvious one, especially if the DSE managed to get the upper hand in the Civil War. Cyprus could be thrown in as well, though the Turks might not take too kindly to that.
Spain: The Balearic Islands would have easily functioned as a Francoist Government-in-Exile during the 1936-1943 period should the Republicans get the upper hand, the Italians having a major interest in establishing bases or even annexing them in conjunction with Spanish Morocco. That said they would be more of a puppet state than anything by that point, and there is no real certainty that Mussolini would keep him around. The Canary Islands could be considered as well I suppose.​
 

trurle

Banned
rvbomally said:
I've noticed a trend among alternate histories involving the destruction of a great power during a (usually communist) revolution: the old regime fleeing to a geographically isolated region and continuing to claim the mainland, while the revolutionary government continues to claim the region. The obvious OTL example, and doubtless the inspiration for ATL examples, is the China/Taiwan situation. So, I wanted to open up a forum for discussing this phenomenon, particularly possible "Taiwans" for commonly-seen great powers. So, here's a list based on what I have seen and used.

United States: Hawaii, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Alaska
United Kingdom: Ireland/Ulster, Australia, New Zealand, Canada
France: Corsica, Algeria
Russia: Alaska, Crimea
Japan: Taiwan, Hokkaido, Sakhalin
Click to expand...
It is properly called "rump state".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rump_states

As about your list: the rump state usually require either poorly connected world (not true today) or strong foreign backing for failed state. In this light, US rump state is highly unlikely because any government taking over Continental US would be powerful enough to re-unite outlying islands.

I do not have enough data to analyze French or British possible rump states.

Russian Alaska or Crimea..Crimea was plausible for at least ~5 years would French made a significant (division or more) support of White Army. In late 1920, Red Army was already critically low on ammunition, a factor contributing to Soviet defeat in Polish-Soviet war just 3 months before.

Rump Japan..Taiwan is ASB. It has never enough Japanese men. Sakhalin (South Sakhalin) need an Russian ethnic cleansing policy vastly different from the OTL. Hokkaido is distinct possibility which was tried once.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ezo
 

rvbomally

trurle said:
It is properly called "rump state".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rump_states

As about your list: the rump state usually require either poorly connected world (not true today) or strong foreign backing for failed state. In this light, US rump state is highly unlikely because any government taking over Continental US would be powerful enough to re-unite outlying islands.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's a given. The revolutionary government would need to have the loyalty of the Navy, or backing from a foreign state with naval capabilities and willing to provide transport, and it assumes that the revolutionary government isn't busy with opposition in CONUS. A government viewed as odious by the great powers at the time (I.E. a communist USA in the early 20th century) could easily find itself diplomatically isolated and its outlying territories under the de facto control of foreign forces.

Russian Alaska or Crimea..Crimea was plausible for at least ~5 years would French made a significant (division or more) support of White Army. In late 1920, Red Army was already critically low on ammunition, a factor contributing to Soviet defeat in Polish-Soviet war just 3 months before.
Click to expand...

That situation is actually exactly what I had in mind when mentioning Crimea.
 

Peg Leg Pom

For the UK if the Home Islands had fallen Newfoundland would be the obvious spot. It is at the time whole run by the UK anyway as a failed dominion so Churchill or who ever was leading the government in exile wouldn't have to worry about stepping on the host government's toes and so can maintain its independence. There's space to accommodate any who made it out of the UK and to house any industry that could be established.
 
ronaldo

ronaldo

A fact similar to China / Taiwan in our history was when the Portuguese monarchy fled from napoleon to Brazil and founded the United Kingdom of Portugal and Brazil and the Rio de Janeiro being the capital of the Portuguese empire, the only moment in history when one Colony became the capital of a European nation.

For spain it would be the canary islands, cuba and puerto rico

For Denmark it would be Greenland and Iceland
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
For Cuba, the Isle of Pines, or Isle of Youth

For Haiti, the Ile de Gonave or Ile a Vache

For Denmark, just divide control of Zealand and Jutland

For Turkey, just separate Anatolian Turkey from Thracian Turkey.

For Tanzania, just break off Zanzibar.

For Trinidad and Tobago, break off Tobago.

For Australia, break off Tasmania.

For New Zealand, break north or south islands apart.
 

James Ricker

For France Madagascar.
Far removed from France so they can't come after you without extreme effort,not possible in the post revolutionary chaos.
 

kuzux

raharris1973 said:
For Turkey, just separate Anatolian Turkey from Thracian Turkey.
Click to expand...

That almost happened in 1960. The coupists were quite certain that they would be able to take and hold Istanbul but not so sure about the rest of the country, so there were quite extensive plans about using the European bit of Turkey as a Taiwan-like thing in case they failed to seize the government. For a modern day scenario, I just can't see it being a stable long-term thing (would only be possible in a east/west Berlin type of divided city, but only with a natural barrier instead of a man made one).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top