Alternate Southern South America

Is this proposition at least remotely possible And how would it likely develop post 1820:

Some background:

Spanish Borbon's will descend from Filipe Antonío, Duke of Calabria and not mentally retarded in this TL and more in the mold of his grandfather Phillip and the "Sun King" Louis XIV of France. He is married to Maria Karolina of Austria instead of Maria Luisa of Parma.
Spanish First minister is in the mold of Floridablanca during the pivotal period ending the French Imperial Wars in 1815. Calling all Spaniards, is there someone that might fit that bill?

France has ended with it 1805 borders and the Bonapartists still rule. Napoleon is killed in the Prussian campaign and Joseph either rules or heads the Regency government. Louis still rules Holland. There are still French influenced states in an Alt German confederation here. Namely Westfalen (Jerome). Though I've yet to determine its exact disposition.

There is no retrocession of Luisiana as the Spanish have been more Anti French initially for a longer period in this TL. Its disposition is yet to be determined, but we will call it a Anglo-Spanish dependency at this point under Charles of Artois following an Alt C of Vienna in 1818.

Portugal invasion by Franco-Spanish ( during their later forced alliance) forces has been abortive and and the Braganzas of Avis have never had to flee to Rio de Janeiro.

No battle of Trafalgar with its consequent destructive consequences for the Spanish and French fleets. Naval engagements have been just that. Engagements...and not titanic engagements with overwhelming consequences. These have occurred largely in the Bay of Biscay, Channel, North Sea, Med and Caribbean. With smaller engagements in the South Atlantic and the Indian Ocean.

The Royal Navy remains the dominant force at the close of French Imperial Wars. It has generally gotten the better of the French forces in its engagements, but those against the Spanish have been more even. The Spanish still have a major well trained Naval force in being at the end of the Imperial wars.

Spanish south America: Republican ( from France and America) sentiment has still penetrated the Spanish South American Empire, simply later and building at a slower pace.

Spain has intervened decisively to save the Liga Federal against the centralist republicans of Buenos Aires (post 1815) and the Portuguese provincials of Brasil ( they act without consulting Lisbon )

Paraguay, LF del Uruguay are in Personal Union only with Kdm of Spain, a version of the earlier Aranda plan floated during his tenure, as trade-offs for their intervention and political influence with Lisbon, as well as terr. concessions with regard to Paraguay. Spanish infante's ( there are 5, the youngest born 1888) act as Viceroys for Felipe Antonio until his death ( Haven't decide upon when he should die though 1818-1820 sounds good), where upon they will ascend to head of state as constitutional monarchs in their own right.

In South America, the British invasion of the Plate still occurred but later, with similiar results for the Spanish in the Vice-Royalty of La Plata.

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But why wouldn't the Spanish just reconquer the whole southern cone if they've gone as far as defeating the United Provinces of the South? I mean, there are four new independent republics that are probably buying British goods instead of Spanish ones while the Spanish have lost sovereign control of all ports in the region
 
I think it's an interesting idea, but has some details. When did the war in Europe end, and why is the Spanish navy doing so well against the British?

Furthermore, what's happening in Louisiana? ISTM that America will take it at some point...
 
But why wouldn't the Spanish just reconquer the whole southern cone if they've gone as far as defeating the United Provinces of the South? I mean, there are four new independent republics that are probably buying British goods instead of Spanish ones while the Spanish have lost sovereign control of all ports in the region

I was thinking that such a move might result in the same disaster as Veracruz. uniting both federalists and centralists against them. then there is the nagging problem of the rising tide of republicanism that is beginning to be make itself felt in the other Vice royalties as well. Nueva Espana and Nueva Granada in particular.

Bonapartist France has been deprived of most of the French colonies pre-Imperial War and are also starting to exert their own influence as well along with the British in the restive Spanish Empire.
While Spain and the French did ally the Spanish are now back in a wary anti-French stance. The Wars are over and no one wants to start a new one immediately. they have elected to choose their battles carefully with a judicious use of their resources to essentially divide and conquer instead. I suppose they could have intervened on Buenos Aires side instead, but siding with Artigas and the smaller terr. between the Brasilian provinces and Argentina ensures that they will be more dependent On the Spanish Imperial reach to keep the neighbours at bay.

they haven't lost all the ports. Uruguay and Paraguay are in personal union with Spain. After Felipe Antonio's death they will have their own Spanish infante's as head of state. It will be a gradual implementation of decentralization of the Spanish Empire along the lines initially floated by Aranda in the 1790's.

The Parana is an international river open to navigation initially by Spanish Empire vessels and Argentine vessels. Maldonado is under direct Empire control until Felipe Antonio's death and the Spanish fleet can use Montevideo as a supply base as well. during their intervention, largely Naval to blockade Buenos Aires and diplomatic to arm twist the Portuguese to bring the Brasilian provincials in line. Intervention by land forces is small so as not to undermine Artigas but enough to keep Entre Rios in his camp. Maximum gain for the most economical use of resources allowing them to watch the simmering pot that is the remainder of their empire and events in Europe, particularly Italy where they have direct political interests. There is also an expanded interest in the East Indies with the occupation of a portion of the Dutch colonies there ( Louis retains Holland ) Britain, Portugal and Spain have picked up expanded responsibilities at the French and Dutch expense, though both now look for new commercial opportunities overseas but are immediately pre-occupied with the postwar situation on their borders in the German and Italian confederations.

So the Spanish while a stronger force in the post-war have larger responsibilities as well with incipient rebellion beginning to stir in its Empire egged on by the French, Dutch, British and American commercial interests.

Where republican sentiment is weakest ( still Peru in this TL ) they can afford to be more heavy handed. In New Spain and New Granada they need to tread a little more carefully. In this TL republican forces have still manifested themselves in New Spain and the Plate in the latter stages of the Imperial Wars. New Spain was crushed but it still simmers and there are forces there still advocating reform of some kind and I expect they too will either get their own Infante or at least advance to personal union with Spain under the Prince of Asturias upon his ascension, for the curious its Felipe Estevan. Btw 1821 seems like a good time to have Felipe Antonio expire shall we say.

That will make Felipe Estevan, married in this TL to Marie-Therese Charlotte of France who took up residence with her Aunt Maria Karolina in Madrid this TL upon her release from prison by the revolutionary forces, King of Spain and Emperor. His younger brothers, Francisco Carlos, Carlos Luis, Antonio Leopoldo as Kings in their own right within the Empire in either Nueva Espana, Uruguay and Paraguay. They will vary of course, but its likely that Uruguay and New Spain will be conservative constitutional monarchies each with their own problems to resolve between liberals and conservatives and of course differing regional problems. Paraguay is likely to become a very conservative centralized monarchy with the king wielding probably more personal power though it will also observe the forms of a constitutional monarchy as well. The last remaining sibling eligible for such elevation will be Ferdinand Domingo (Nueva Granada perhaps, or a portion of it anyways or Peru). Of course I haven't worked out their entire course of existence yet. I will have to add some random chance for mental instability, earlier death (assassination) that kind of thing.
The new Prince of Asturias will be Luis Felipe.
 
I think it's an interesting idea, but has some details. When did the war in Europe end, and why is the Spanish navy doing so well against the British?

Furthermore, what's happening in Louisiana? ISTM that America will take it at some point...

No overwhelming battle along the lines of Trafalgar or Copenhagen. Engagements on the part of the RN have been smaller TTL, aimed at keeping the French coalition from overseas resources. They have essentially deprived the French/Dutch of the better part of their remaining overseas empires. They will take N.O. from Spain TTL along with the abortive Plate mission.

The Spanish Navy was always better trained than the French but it did lack resources in OTL. This TL the Spanish left the first coalition in 1795 but re-entered again in 1797 only to be retired again in 1800.
Maria Karolina was vehemetly anti-Napoleon her character is not changed, she is still the most like her mother in terms of driving ambition an political astuteness.She is the centre of Anti French political forces in Spain during the Imperial wars. Floridablanca is returned to power in 1796 to guide the affairs of the Spanish state in tandem with King Felipe Antonio. There has been no retrocession of Luisiana. Spain was neutral through the 2nd and 3rd coalitions shifting from Anti-French neutrality to pro- French neutrality and an alliance of mutual convenience following the destruction of Prussia as a power in Europe ( at least temporarily) and Napoleon's death during that campaign.

With ongoing troubles in Europe the Spanish have had no problem in in continuing the right of deposit at New Orleans for the USA. So while there will be some penetration of Americans, they are currently more preoccupied with the Northwest during this period. They can begin to look at that post 1820. hence the installation of Charles of Artois in New Orleans and Louisiana and a co-protectorate between Britain and Spain probably a guarantee from the USA as well in retrospect. The place is predominantly still French at this point. The French Bourbons have been given the region as compensation for not being re-installed in Paris. Louis XViii of course retains the fiction of King of France from exile probably in London though I am toying with having him installed in Corsica towards the end of the Imperial Wars from where he can rant and rave all he wants and be a pole for the emigres and French Bourbon royalists to rally to and await a return to the mainland should the Bonapartist regime ever falter (though I am not contemplating that so much). But thats getting ahead a bit for Europe.

Btw. I am thinking to have the William I of the Netherlands OTL become the Statholder of a Cape Republic instead in this ATL. Essentially a protectorate and indirect rule by Britain. It can be a draw for disaffected Germans and Dutch in this Alt. Postwar C of V.
 
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