Alternate Siberia

How could Siberia have evolved if it wasn't colonized by Russia?

The Central asian Khanates would've remained in power of course, but their domains didn't cover much of Siberia...
 
Who fills the void then? China? Japan? A Western European colonial power? (Spanish Siberia, however implausible, would be all kinds of cool)
 
As for Pacific Coast - I guess, Dutch and English would fill vacuum. Later Japanese would join them. However, I doubt that even all three nations combined would be capable to penetrate North Asia all the way to Urals from their Kamchatka/Sakhalin bases.
But Western and Central Siberia... Muslim Khanates were too weak (and distant - in Bukhara case) for real exploration and colonization of vast cold wilderness.
Chinese were way too distant, also, although they could colonize Outer Manchuria (modern Maritime Province of Russia), especially with more reasonable policy of Ching dynasty towards Chinese settlement in Manchu lands.
Mongols are and were steppe nomads, unaccustomed to taiga.
There are no obvious candidates for conquest of Yenisei Valley, Yakutia or Taymyr. Without Russians, Siberia could well remain Siberian Natives' land till 19th century (as New Zealand, for example).
 
Eastern Siberia would be conquered by 1st "modern" (in terms of the day, meaning agriculture, gunpowder and numerous population) trading nation which occupies Volga basin after 15th century. Kuchum's abomination of khanate is what the Southern Siberia could support in terms of fighting nomads, and this sorry bunch is bound to get slaughtered by 1st gang of civilized adventure seekers which would get there. Transbaikal area is more interesting, but Sahaidak covered it.
 
Eastern Siberia would be conquered by 1st "modern" (in terms of the day, meaning agriculture, gunpowder and numerous population) trading nation which occupies Volga basin after 15th century. .
CanadianGoose, did you mean Western Siberia? Because Eastern Siberia is very far from Volga basin.
 
Perhaps Siberia and the Russian Far East would have a substantially larger population of Buddhists today. I wonder how this impact the evolution and writing of languages in the region.
 
I can't imagine buddhists much north of OTL Irkutsk, the Russian expansion into Siberia didn't affect the rest of Asia until the 19th centuary...

I guess either the Qing or some independent Mongol/Manchu/Xibe chiefs who might settle north of the OTL China and Mongolia borders...

I think it's quite unlikely for a European naval power to take Kamtchatka and Ochotsk, at least until the 19th centuary...

The Khanates in Bochara and thereabout can't have more then nominal power out there, maybe muslim missionaries would convert the tribes in the area to Islam?

What would the effects in Russia be, if Siberia wasn't colonized?
 
I can't imagine buddhists much north of OTL Irkutsk
Yakuts are obvious candidates for conversion and Evenks had certain number of lamaists in their midst. Without Russian expansion (although it is nothing short of ASB that it wouldn't happen), the trend could continue.

What would the effects in Russia be, if Siberia wasn't colonized?
Before mid-1700s changes are not that huge. Although Ural became Russian industrial center in early 1700s, Siberia itself remained largely uncolonized. Russians extracted some serious amounts of furs from there, but those could be supplied through trade, I think. It was depletion of fur reserves of Eastern Russia which finally and gradually switched attention to Siberia. 18th and early 19th centuries were all about furs, then gold came into play, then other natural deposits, culminating with oil and gas in 1960s.
 
You could always have Yermak Timofeyevich defeated in battle, or rather he and his 500 men by the Khan of Siberia in 1580. Rather than the otherway around. I think this would only push back a Russian colonization of Siberia and the Far East by a decade. Maybe two.
 
You could always have Yermak Timofeyevich defeated in battle, or rather he and his 500 men by the Khan of Siberia in 1580. Rather than the otherway around.
Big freaking deal. Yermak wasn't even "government employee" in proper sense. He was an adventurer, head of "private security company" of that day and age, wanted by Tsar's administration and employed by Russian salt tycoon. His gang wasn't only group of adventurers in Russia of the day. Would Kuchum kill one such group, two others would come year or two later. As I said, Russia had a lot of "conquistadores" at this point, much more than Kuchum could count on.
I think this would only push back a Russian colonization of Siberia and the Far East by a decade. Maybe two.
Basically, you only need to delay it 20 years to put it 50 years back. Times of Troubles are coming and Russia would not be in a position to resume Eastbound push until 1630.
 
Who fills the void then? China? Japan? A Western European colonial power? (Spanish Siberia, however implausible, would be all kinds of cool)
There's really no "void" unless TTL Siberia is viewed in contrast to OTL. For countless centuries no one was interested in Siberia, or at least not in the eastern part. The Chinese and Japanese had opportunities to expand in OTL, and yet they did not. In my opinion that demonstrates their lack of interest in the region.

Spanish Siberia is equally implausible. Though, I wonder if English expansion through the Muscovy Company would be plausible at all. I know there have been several threads on this before, but still.
 
An entertaining if implausible idea; Russia never expands eastward and Siberia is basically ignored until the 19th Century; a major maritime power might have a small outpost in Kamcatka but that's it. In the late 1800s, major scientific expeditions are launched into the interior and in the early 20th Century one of these serendipitously learns of the considerable mineral wealth below the ground. A cross between the Scramble for Africa and the Gold Rush occurs as adventurers swap their pith helmets and Stetsons for very thick coats. Add in conflicts with the natives and underhanded dealing between the major powers and their proxy mining companies and you have all the ingredients for 'Wild East' films being made in the mid-20th Century. John Wayne vs. cossacks. Hmmm...
 
There's really no "void" unless TTL Siberia is viewed in contrast to OTL.

Well, right, isn't that what this whole thread is about? The 'void' is the absence of the Russians in Siberia in TTL.

For countless centuries no one was interested in Siberia, or at least not in the eastern part. The Chinese and Japanese had opportunities to expand in OTL, and yet they did not. In my opinion that demonstrates their lack of interest in the region.

True, but I'd say Japan had a lack of capability for much of that time. If - big if, given butterflies - it modernizes and becomes an imperial power as in OTL, and Siberia is still unclaimed by another empire, a Japanese Siberia, or at least East Siberia, seems possible enough. If China does a Meiji, and if nobody else has already claimed Siberia, it's even more likely to do so, I think.

Spanish Siberia is equally implausible. Though, I wonder if English expansion through the Muscovy Company would be plausible at all. I know there have been several threads on this before, but still.

I can see the Spanish seizing part of Northeast Asia in their Pacific expansion days, and exploring and establishing a few scattered forts westward into Siberia. Not very likely, yes, but it still would be a cool divergence from OTL, I think.
 
Well, right, isn't that what this whole thread is about? The 'void' is the absence of the Russians in Siberia in TTL.
But the people ITTL will not react as if there is a void. My only point was that many posters in the thread were assuming that all TTL nations would notice the lack of Russians in Siberia and all fight in their haste to claim the territory first. But no one ever had an interest in Siberia before the Russians arrived, and it would probably continue ITTL. Most later Japanese and / or Chinese interest was a result of Russian encroachment into the area.



True, but I'd say Japan had a lack of capability for much of that time. If - big if, given butterflies - it modernizes and becomes an imperial power as in OTL, and Siberia is still unclaimed by another empire, a Japanese Siberia, or at least East Siberia, seems possible enough. If China does a Meiji, and if nobody else has already claimed Siberia, it's even more likely to do so, I think.
Why would either of them claim it? How would it benefit them?


I can see the Spanish seizing part of Northeast Asia in their Pacific expansion days, and exploring and establishing a few scattered forts westward into Siberia. Not very likely, yes, but it still would be a cool divergence from OTL, I think.
Once again, how would that benefit Spain? It little access to, and a lack of interest in, Siberia in OTL...
 
I'd think it would be Chinese.
They wouldn't want to grab it all but IOTL they did try to push further north than they are IOTL but ran into the Russians- what remains will be so nominal it would probally be counted as theirs anyway but scarcely touched until much later times.

Perhaps some Scandinavian possessions on the north coast once we get into the late 19th/early 20th century too? (assuming a big butterfly net of course)
 
An entertaining if implausible idea; Russia never expands eastward and Siberia is basically ignored until the 19th Century; a major maritime power might have a small outpost in Kamcatka but that's it. In the late 1800s, major scientific expeditions are launched into the interior and in the early 20th Century one of these serendipitously learns of the considerable mineral wealth below the ground. A cross between the Scramble for Africa and the Gold Rush occurs as adventurers swap their pith helmets and Stetsons for very thick coats. Add in conflicts with the natives and underhanded dealing between the major powers and their proxy mining companies and you have all the ingredients for 'Wild East' films being made in the mid-20th Century. John Wayne vs. cossacks. Hmmm...

Funnily enough...
 
Why would either of them claim it? How would it benefit them?

Once again, how would that benefit Spain? It little access to, and a lack of interest in, Siberia in OTL...

Strategic concerns, religious motivations (for the Europeans, at least), natural resources, 'get it before someone else does', any one of those could easily emerge as a reason for someone to expand into Siberia. Again, I'm not saying Chinese/Japanese/Spanish Siberia is all that plausible, just that it's not utterly ASB territory. (Okay, Spanish Siberia might be veering that way...)

ADDED: I am tacking on the Russian Far East to "Siberia" here despite not being strictly accurate, in the "not at all" sense of "strictly."
 
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