It depends on
how and
when they win, and also how they perform in other theatres.
My favourite scenario for this is where Wolfe gets less near-ASB luck at the Battle of the Plains of Abraham and Montcalm is alerted to his presence
before they scale up towards the Plains. That would give Montcalm enough time to pull his forces out from the surronding area (specifically, Bougainville) and converge on Wolfe's position while he's still establishing himself. That would likely mean nearly all of Wolfe's entire contingent ends up surrending (cept the few fools who try to scale down the cliffs, helpless) and Wolfe himself ends up in French custody. That'd be a huge blow to the British war effort for the U.K. and would definitely throw a much needed lifeline to New France.
In the aftermath of something like that, if the British do less well in India or Europe they could end up receding Ile Royale (Cape Breton Island) and perhaps even having to pay for razing Louisbourg. That kind of humiliation could go many ways. It's possible that the British might tax the colonists as OTL, and you'd have a weaker American revolution, extremely hostile and expansionistic to New France at first (and later on pending their support). It could also mean the British are thrown a freebie, in that they can tax the colonists for the war but keep them together as the French are still up there (I imagine this works better if the Ohio territory is still around).
You can really go either way with it. It could delay revolution and lay the seeds for a single revolutionary state on the East Coast. Without the British to shelter Quebec, the area around otl Ontario/Ohio is probably going to be illegally colonized by British settlers, most of whom will be America- whereas iotl, most people who moved up there were given land tracts by the British government and ended up a nice shelter for loyalists. Relations with the native populations are only likely to worsen, and the Iroquois might end up supporting New France if settlers continue to push northwards.
It could also speed up revolution however. If the British tax and ignore the colonies as iotl, and the Americans still end up humiliated in the war (have to return Louisbourg, no Ohio gains) they could rebel against the British just as they did as iotl. It is going to be a more complex revolution than OTL if it happens, and might end up just being a few rebellions akin to the Canadian rebellions (put down easier, but long-lasting effects on government). It's my opinion that if the British tax the Americans but
lose the war, they'll be in a worse position than OTL (they still might win, but its going to hugely affect future relations between their colonies in NA and the mainland). Without a victory to at least look back on, relations with the colonists are going to be more fractured and if the Americans feel they're being taxed for British incompetence (Wolfe's foolish assault at the Battle of the Plains of Abraham in a French victory) AND on top of that having to
return American naval victories (Louisbourg)...well. There's going to be more than one Boston Tea Party in that scenario

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