Alternate Race to the Sea and 1st Ypres

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_to_the_Sea
http://www.historyofwar.org/articles/wars_race_to_sea.html
http://www.historyofwar.org/scripts...res&submit=Site+Search&d=/battles_ypres1.html

maps_13_german_retreat1914_(1600).jpg


What if the Race to the Sea and the subsequent 1st Battle of Ypres played out differently? I mean that the conception of the campaign is different in that von Falkenhayn, the newly appointed Commander of the German army doesn't decide to gamble on his newly formed, underequipped and trained reserve corps to break the British near Ypres.
Falkenhayn was a gambler; he risked big numerously during the war to win big and unfortunately for Germany these gambles did not always work out and cost a number of lives.
The 1st Ypres was one of these gambles. He threw in these unprepared troops to potentially end the war, but instead wasted a number of lives. Some benefits were achieved, such as finishing the BEF as a formation, but the cost wasn't worth the gain.

So what I'm suggesting is that Falkenhayn instead is more cautious and doesn't like the odds for throwing these new troops into the meat grinder near Ypres. Instead the Germans just focus on defending their flank by extending their line to the coast from the Aisne line.
The corps saved then are used in the East.

What does that mean for the West Front? The BEF is saved from complete destruction, but its already been gutted by previous battles. Could it be used on the offensive to break the German lines instead? Do the French try to bash away at the Germans? What is the Entente response?

Meanwhile in the East. The only deployment that makes sense for these new corps, four of them, the XXII, XXIII, XXVI, and XXVII reserve corps, would/should be used in place of the 2nd Austro-Hungarian army in South Poland (see map below), which already had 3-5 German divisions. These, combined with the new German corps, would have about 11-13 divisions and would be the 10th army under Woyrsch, who had been running a reinforced corps with the Austrians since the start of the war and had the most experience for the role. This would leave the new German 10th army 2 corps, 4 divisions, stronger than the historical Central Powers force.

Not only that, but the AHs would have two more corps to fight in the Carpathians than OTL, which they did very well at OTL during this period. With these extra forces they could well best the Russians and push them out of the Carpathians and hold the Bukowina.

To the North the extra German corps, which OTL did well on the Eastern Front versus the Western Front, would be able to stand up to the Russians much better than OTL, as the AHs were short of munitions and men, so the fresh corps, more numerous than their OTL alternatives, would perform significantly better. The Russians would be overloaded by the extra troops and would probably incur more losses as a result, especially then their main opponent, the Russian 5th army, has to rush to Lodz to help out the overloaded Russian 2nd army as per OTL. This could well prevent the subsequent German losses after the Battle of Lodz, where OTL the Russians managed to build up a secure defensive line and check Ludendorff and the German 9th army, while inflicting nearly 100,000 casualties on the Germans from December to January.

So all told the Germans avoid at least about 100,000 casualties of OTL, while hurting the Russians worse. Still the Entente in the West is left without the casualties of OTL, which leaves them obviously in the stronger position, probably also without having to hold the firesack that Ypres turned into, meaning even fewer losses in future battles for the British. So while the Germans have a net gain and the Russians a net loss, the Western Entente is also better off. Does this balance out, or does one side gain an advantage?

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Deleted member 1487

So no ideas? Should I make maps of this idea to help explain things?
 
So no ideas? Should I make maps of this idea to help explain things?

I'm thinking your idea might be a net loser for the Germans

The Ypres forces; despite making a number of mistakes ground down the BEF badly and destroyed a lot of the cadre to built up a bigger army which effectively delayed the British from being a serious ground contender for 18 months

the benefits in russia relative to force to space might not be worth giving up that battle
 
The West is still going to stalemate into trench warfare. If the Germans can follow up quickly in the East, it is possible that Russia could collapse faster than OTL. A Russia out of the war in 1916 only increases that odds that Germany can achieve a victory of the Entente. Also American involvement will not be a factor in 1916.
 
I'm thinking your idea might be a net loser for the Germans

The Ypres forces; despite making a number of mistakes ground down the BEF badly and destroyed a lot of the cadre to built up a bigger army which effectively delayed the British from being a serious ground contender for 18 months

the benefits in russia relative to force to space might not be worth giving up that battle

Hmm the benefits might extend beyond just the purely military situation though. Romania and Italy might be a lot more hesitant if it looks like AH is doing better with the extra german forces. I doubt they will join the CP but might keep their neutrality longer just to see where things go.
 

Deleted member 1487

Isn't there a good chance that the Entente would go on the offensive if the Germans turned East? As it was prior to the Race to the Sea, the British and French were bashing away on the Aisne line, wasting men. When the lines settle down after the end of TTL's version of the RttS, why wouldn't the French and British try and break German lines themselves before they settle down into trenches? Its very likely the Entente may end up losing somewhat similar numbers of men, but on the offensive instead of defensive. I mean the French attacked constantly from the end of the Marne through 1915, with small breaks in between OTL.
As to the Italy staying neutral idea, much depends on what happens in the aftermath of Lodz. The Germans could turn West again, which Falkenhayn was fixated on, or he could try and hobble the Russians early/support the Austrians enough to stabilize the line so he could turn West at the earliest opportunity. If the latter then you might be right, otherwise AH will be a little better off, but not enough to keep Italy out.
 
The Ypres forces; despite making a number of mistakes ground down the BEF badly and destroyed a lot of the cadre to built up a bigger army which effectively delayed the British from being a serious ground contender for 18 months

Agreed. The famously appalling British tactics at the Somme ("lining up and walking very slowly towards the enemy") were chosen specifically because the forces used were a brand new force that had only been trained in basic tactics and maneuvers. The generals were afraid that if they tried anything more complicated, discipline and order would break down and they'd be left with a mob rather than an army. Avoid the casualties of First Ypres, and you've got a large cadre of well-trained veterans trusted by their commanders that you can use either as a training cadre to bring new recruits up to full Regular Army standards faster, or as a spearhead force to lead assaults using the more sophisticated tactics already being used by the French and Germans.
 

Deleted member 1487

Agreed. The famously appalling British tactics at the Somme ("lining up and walking very slowly towards the enemy") were chosen specifically because the forces used were a brand new force that had only been trained in basic tactics and maneuvers. The generals were afraid that if they tried anything more complicated, discipline and order would break down and they'd be left with a mob rather than an army. Avoid the casualties of First Ypres, and you've got a large cadre of well-trained veterans trusted by their commanders that you can use either as a training cadre to bring new recruits up to full Regular Army standards faster, or as a spearhead force to lead assaults using the more sophisticated tactics already being used by the French and Germans.

Remember that by the time of Ypres, the British had already suffered major losses. There were less than half of the original BEF left by that point and even without the British going on the offensive after the Germans stop ITTL (which I doubt), there is still the 1915 offensives which they would be part of. Not only that, but at the Somme there were several hundred thousand new recruits, something that maybe 30-40,000 survivors aren't going to radically change from the 15,000+ survivors of OTL. Remember too that a large number of British troops at the Somme used modern tactics in the field, it was in many cases the faulty artillery tactics of some units that was the big problem. That and the large number of faulty shells that failed to detonate.
 
A stalemate in the West, which is almost certain to occur despite a few more British troops alive than in OTL, and an even bigger victory in the east may trigger a shift of priorities. Remain on the defensive in the west, allow the French and British to batter themselves bloody attacking into well entrenched troops armed with machine guns. In the East, seize the initiative and attempt a quick knockout of the Russians.
 
As a start I would see von Falkenhayn moving only 3 of the corps to the Eastern Front. He would likely keep XXII RK with Fourth Army because he certainly doesn't want Belgians+BEF+some French units turning his flank with potentially catastrophic consequences. The Battle of the Yser is altered as well as First Ypres (which may be called Battle of Roulers instead)

Tuning to the East I also have problems. Mid Oct the Dynamic Duo are still fantasizing about taking Warsaw. If they are reinforced with 4 more corps (or even just 3) there is a good chance they will keep on going.
 
As a start I would see von Falkenhayn moving only 3 of the corps to the Eastern Front. He would likely keep XXII RK with Fourth Army because he certainly doesn't want Belgians+BEF+some French units turning his flank with potentially catastrophic consequences. The Battle of the Yser is altered as well as First Ypres (which may be called Battle of Roulers instead)

Tuning to the East I also have problems. Mid Oct the Dynamic Duo are still fantasizing about taking Warsaw. If they are reinforced with 4 more corps (or even just 3) there is a good chance they will keep on going.

If they take Warsaw, then that reinforces my point that the priority may shift to the Eastern Front and Germany may go for a quick knockout of the Russians escpecially since the feared Russian "steamroller" is not rolling!
 

Deleted member 1487

As a start I would see von Falkenhayn moving only 3 of the corps to the Eastern Front. He would likely keep XXII RK with Fourth Army because he certainly doesn't want Belgians+BEF+some French units turning his flank with potentially catastrophic consequences. The Battle of the Yser is altered as well as First Ypres (which may be called Battle of Roulers instead)

Tuning to the East I also have problems. Mid Oct the Dynamic Duo are still fantasizing about taking Warsaw. If they are reinforced with 4 more corps (or even just 3) there is a good chance they will keep on going.

I should clarify, I was thinking that the corps would complete training, which means they would be available in early to mid-November. Falkenhayn and the Duo were well aware that the Russians were massing major forces, so despite the Duo believing that they could take and hold Warsaw, TTL's more cautious Falkenhayn is more likely (IMHO) to hold back these corps until the Russians exposed a vulnerability. Also, given his autocratic personality and that IOTL in 1915 when he turned East he retained overall command on the Eastern Front rather than cede the 11th army to the Duo's control, ITTL, once Falkenhayn has decided to turn East, he will come with and take overall command and enforce his plan rather than leave it to the hated Duo, especially as the Western Front doesn't need his attention, as it would have bogged down in trenches by this point.
 
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