Alternate Operation Bagration

Operation Bagration was the name for a Red Army operation to clear western Belarus and eastern Poland from German forces and drive for the Vistula river which took place between June 22nd and August 19th 1944. It was preceded by a large 'Maskirovka' campaign. Although the Germans knew about Soviet troop concentrations in Belarus, they still believed that Army Group South was the main target an they strengthened it at the expense of Army Group Centre which fatally weakened it and led to its almost total destruction. (more info here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration)

Suppose German generals had seen through the Maskirovka campaign and had allocated significant reinforcements to Army Group Centre from either Army Group South or North (or both) in the shape of tanks, artillery and aircraft. AGC might still get battered but won't cease to exist as a coherent fighting force like it did IOTL. How will a Pyrhicc Soviet victory affect the rest of the war. Perhaps Romania won't surrender to the USSR and switch sides, giving the Wehrmacht oil for longer so they can fight more effectively (historically the Romanian surrender really hurt the Germans; by 1945 they only had 8% of the oil needed to fight effectively). With a stronger German defence force, might the advance be limited to 1939 borders? I imagine the Soviets will suffer heavier losses with this more competent German response. Could they run out of steam before they reach Berlin, perhaps petering out on the Oder-Neisse line or something? I know Germany is doomed by 1944. I have no illusions about that, but it might make for a different postwar world. Methinks Truman won't be honouring Yalta without Soviet boots on the ground in East Germany, more so since he's got the Bomb (although I'm not sure).

Ideas, thoughts?
 
Operation Bagration was the name for a Red Army operation to clear western Belarus and eastern Poland from German forces and drive for the Vistula river which took place between June 22nd and August 19th 1944. It was preceded by a large 'Maskirovka' campaign. Although the Germans knew about Soviet troop concentrations in Belarus, they still believed that Army Group South was the main target an they strengthened it at the expense of Army Group Centre which fatally weakened it and led to its almost total destruction. (more info here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration)

Suppose German generals had seen through the Maskirovka campaign and had allocated significant reinforcements to Army Group Centre from either Army Group South or North (or both) in the shape of tanks, artillery and aircraft. AGC might still get battered but won't cease to exist as a coherent fighting force like it did IOTL. How will a Pyrhicc Soviet victory affect the rest of the war. Perhaps Romania won't surrender to the USSR and switch sides, giving the Wehrmacht oil for longer so they can fight more effectively (historically the Romanian surrender really hurt the Germans; by 1945 they only had 8% of the oil needed to fight effectively). With a stronger German defence force, might the advance be limited to 1939 borders? I imagine the Soviets will suffer heavier losses with this more competent German response. Could they run out of steam before they reach Berlin, perhaps petering out on the Oder-Neisse line or something? I know Germany is doomed by 1944. I have no illusions about that, but it might make for a different postwar world. Methinks Truman won't be honouring Yalta without Soviet boots on the ground in East Germany, more so since he's got the Bomb (although I'm not sure).

Ideas, thoughts?
Reinforcements from other army groups won't help..If I recall correctly the reason behind the catastrophic defeat was Hitler's insistence on no retreat when then more than ever tactical flexibility was needed to fall back on a shorter front.
 
you would need a much earlier pod for bargration to fail.

the most simple one would be for kursk to be cancelled. the germans would then need to build an east wall (not the panther wotan line that was too far foward... i think they would honestly have to construct it on the 1939 border for it to succeed) and fight a mobile flexable battle in front of it.

with the extra resources on hand bargration could be stopped in the manner of operation mars. in summer 1944 in otl the germans had nothing like the resources to stop that kind of steamroller
 
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