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I've always wondered: what if Yamamoto hadn't been so overconfident in the planning for Midway. What if he took the war games seriously and decided to put the Aleutians on hold until Midway, and possibly Hawaii, were in Japanese hands.

As I see it, the lighter carriers (Ryujo, Junyo and Zuiho) would be tasked with reducing Midway's defenses while the larger ones (Akagi, Kaga, Soryu and Hiryu) would lie in wait for the Americans. Kondo's transports would be protected by the carrier Hosho (barely even worthy of the name 'carrier') and the Combined Fleet would be concentrated in just three task forces: Yamamoto/Nugumo, Kondo and Hosogaya. With the additional escorts, especially the battleships, the American pilots would have a much harder time attacking the heavy carriers. With Yamamoto in charge instead of Nugumo and with the responsibility for attacking Midway delegated, there'd be no indecision about what to do when the Americans are discovered. Indeed, they might even be discovered earlier as I can't really see Yamamoto tolerating Scout 4 being thirty minutes late. He'd just launch a carrier scout plane instead. He'd also probably launch multiple waves of scouts, which could lead to Hornet and Enterprise being discovered as well. Even though the American escorts would also be thicker (from what would've been Theobalds force) there is a very real chance that the Americans would lose the battle. If all three American carriers are destroyed, then that would leave the Pacific Fleet with just Saratoga and Wasp (the Long Island, like the Hosho, doesn't really count, the Atlantic Fleet can't spare Ranger and the other Atlantic carriers are just CVE's) until the first of the new carriers are commissioned.
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