Alternate Megacities

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megacity said:
A megacity is a very large city metropolitan area, typically with a population of more than 10 million people.

As of 2017, there are 47 megacities in existence. Most of these urban agglomerations are in China and other countries of Asia. The largest are the metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Shanghai, and Jakarta, each having over 30 million inhabitants.
With a pod of 1945 where is it most likely for a mega city to arise, which do not have a megacity OTL? Bonus if you can get a grand megacity of 30 million+ people, in a country outside the circle on the picture below, by 2020.
imrs.jpg


Some suggestions for countries to get a ATL megacity with 30 million inhabitants.
  • Brazil
  • Egypt
  • Ethiopia
  • Italy
  • South Africa
  • Turkey
 
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If Canada grows significantly in population, the majority of people will probably congregate near Toronto. Canadian geography already seems to be split between Toronto and not-Toronto as it is, so if a massive influx of immigration to Canada happens (like, say, Vietnam getting out of control and a huge swath of young Americans flees to Canada while the Canadian government decides, fuck it, they can stay) it could eventually turn Toronto into one of these. Bonus points if the US becomes much more hostile to immigrants and they overwhelmingly choose Canada instead.
 
A surviving and non-crippled Ottoman Constantinople, with the city being an attractive source of Anatolian, Arabian, and Balkan immigrants/citizens. Of course, this Constantinople would extend into Asia Minor and more of Thrace, as in OTL.

Other than that, I don't really see any European city with the potential. Maybe a Berlin with a decisive German victory in WW1?

NYC, Mexico, and Sau Paulo are in the low 20 millions. Maybe if internal movement to those cities and their suburbs was more concentrated than in OTL, and alongside immigration could bump those numbers up?
 
If San Diego did not have mountain to the east that made having rail connection to the East Coast hard and there was no Camp Pendleton between Oceanside and San Clemente then From Ventura County to the Mexican border at San Ysidro could be counted as a Mega City and if you throw in Tijuana it would be a Mega City,
 
I was going to suggest Buenos Aires - Argentina was one of the world's richest countries at the dawn of the last century, although it suffered from a "resource curse". Furthermore my hunch is that mega-cities grow from old-school blast-furnace-style industrialisation, which requires the concentration of a population, whereas Argentina remained a rural economy throughout the twentieth century. Perhaps if Peron had been a technocrat with a yen for education and five-year-plans Buenos Aires might become a Soviet-style mega-city, with panelaks etc.
 
A surviving and non-crippled Ottoman Constantinople, with the city being an attractive source of Anatolian, Arabian, and Balkan immigrants/citizens. Of course, this Constantinople would extend into Asia Minor and more of Thrace, as in OTL.
Istanbul could have grown into a megacity with 30 million inhabitants even after the demise of the Ottoman empire, had Turkish population growth been stronger and/or different socio-economic Turkey. More internal migration to Istanbul would probably follow from higher Turkish population growth.
Other than that, I don't really see any European city with the potential. Maybe a Berlin with a decisive German victory in WW1?
I think (using the geographic definition of Europe) that Moscow and Istanbulare strongest candidates for European megacities of 30+ million inhabitants.
NYC, Mexico, and Sau Paulo are in the low 20 millions. Maybe if internal movement to those cities and their suburbs was more concentrated than in OTL, and alongside immigration could bump those numbers up?
Probably correct for NYC, but higher natural population growth is likely a more important factor for Mexico City and Sau Paulo.
I was going to suggest Buenos Aires - Argentina was one of the world's richest countries at the dawn of the last century, although it suffered from a "resource curse". Furthermore my hunch is that mega-cities grow from old-school blast-furnace-style industrialisation, which requires the concentration of a population, whereas Argentina remained a rural economy throughout the twentieth century. Perhaps if Peron had been a technocrat with a yen for education and five-year-plans Buenos Aires might become a Soviet-style mega-city, with panelaks etc.
Buenos Aires is already a megacity with a metro population of over 15 million. Doubling the OTL population into a ATL population of 30 million would be hard to do.
 
If Canada grows significantly in population, the majority of people will probably congregate near Toronto. Canadian geography already seems to be split between Toronto and not-Toronto as it is
On what planet is this true? Montreal, Vancouver, and (as of late) Calgary give "Tdot" some very serious competition. Toronto is many things, but a primate city it is not.

The idea of the GTA (to say nothing of of the Toronto CMA) picking up an additional 24 million people with a PoD of 1945 is simply ludicrous.
 
Lagos is a megacity (and well outside that circle), but it's not over the 30 million mark just yet. If there's no civil war and the capital stays put I imagine it would have long since blown past 30 million.
 
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