So, let's imagine that we have more sensible Kaiser Wilhelm, one who decides not to antagonise Britain by having strong KM. So, what alternate KM could look, while being strong enough to protect German interests and not too strong to make alarm in london- starting by 1888?
You would need a POD which removes Tirpitz (or his influence).
Either he has an accident or he doesn´t manage to get his naval programs approved by the Reichstag in 1897/98. So Wilhelm II turns away from him.
(Or - as mentioned - remove Wilhelm II and go with Prince Heinrich as Emperor.)
In that case the influence of Admiral
Friedrich von Hollmann (in English) in the 1890s or later Rear Admiral
Karl Galster (in German) after 1901 might prevail. Both were considered Anglophiles and horrified about the idea of a war against Britain.
(Add in Prince Heinrich and his interest in submarines and airplanes...)
Von Hollmann also preferred Amoy (
Xiamen island) over Tsingtao as a naval base in the Far East. Perhaps an island would have been easier to defend in 1914?
Especially Karl Galster is interesting. He saw quite clearly the advantages of the geographic location of the British isles. The Royal Navy could use a far blockade of the German ports while the German Navy would never be able to blockade Britain.
Friedrich von Hollmann (1890s):
- Limited number of battleships for the North Sea and Baltic Sea
- Cruisers for deployment overseas
- Coastal defense
Karl Galster (after 1901):
- Use of torpedo boats, submarines, mines and coastal artillery for coastal defense
- Cruisers for deployment overseas. Although he saw the problem here. Not enough bases for effective cruiser warfare.
- Limited number of battleships for the North Sea and Baltic Sea. His letters and newspaper articles show his opposition to the German dreadnought building programs starting in 1907 for example.
One, Germany can never match the British shipbuilding capacities. Especially since Germany needs a strong army too.
Second, the location of the British isles.
And third, he points out that the progress in technology and ship design makes battleships almost obsolete inside 5-10 years.
(Gun caliber going from 11 inch to 15 inches, from triple expansion engines to turbines in just a few years etc.)
So in his opinion it would make more sense to build just 1-2 expensive dreadnoughts of a new design to gain experience. And use the saved money to build more smaller ships.
In any case the Kaiser Wilhelm canal (todays Nord-Ostseekanal) was build with the intention to rapidly transfer navy ships from the Baltic Sea to the North Sea and back. So essentially the German navy just has to be stronger than either the Russian or the French navy. And with the French navy also needed in the Mediterranean (Italy, Austria-Hungary)....
In OTL the German navy was very unbalanced. Quite a lot of dreadnoughts and battle cruisers but not enough "modern" cruisers and destroyers.
So in a best case scenario before 1906?
- Less pre-dreadnoughts built
- More attention to naval bases in the colonies
- Enlargement of the "Seebattalione" (Marines) for base defense overseas
Best case after 1906?
- 2 Nassau, Helgoland, Kaiser and König class dreadnoughts built = 8 dreadnoughts by 1914
- 2 Moltke and 2 Derfflinger class battle cruisers built = 4 battle cruisers by 1914
- More turbine powered cruisers built, preferably with 5.9 inch guns and better range
- More large torpedo boats (= destroyers) built, preferably with 4.1 inch guns
- More ocean-going diesel-powered submarines built
- Sell or scrap most of the older pre-dreadnoughts, cruisers and torpedo boats. The naval guns can be used either as coastal artillery or railway guns.
(A pre-dreadnought without guns could also be used as a floating barrack overseas including supplies and small repair shops.)
- Some of the saved money could be used for the construction of naval bases and their defense overseas. As long as it´s understood that sooner or later they probably will be lost.