Alternate Italian wars

I reformulate the idea of a previous thread. In december 1494, the Pope Alexander VI is deposed and replaced by Della Rovere. In Florence, Savonarola continues to preach as he is protected by the french king to counterbalance the papacy. Without the intrigues of the Pope, the formation of an anti-french league is delayed and thus permits Charles VIII to win this first italian war and to become King of Naples. He still dies in 1498. I guess that to break the ongoing encirclement by the Habsburg possessions, France would be very active in Italy to protect its conquests. Louis XII would conquer the Duchy of Milan. What next?
 
With the French in control of both Naples and Milan then the next target would be Venice.

I forget when the Papel States came into existance, but they would be hemmed in to the north and south by French holdings, so the French would have a much more powerful say in who became Pope. It was the 6th Century, so the Pope would have had to bow to pressure from France or risk invasion from the north and south.
 
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The French were expansionist however, and I am not sure they could have resisted such a rich target with no real allies on their boarder.

Furthermore other powers including the Papacy and Aragon (and the other 'Spanish kingdoms') but also the HR emperor would prefer France out of Italy.
So enough powers, which would like a rematch.
 
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The spanish kingdoms, HRE and Venice, very likely.
In Tuscany, the followers of Savonarola would need the protection of France to survive, making Florence a strong french ally.
About Genoa, there is a traditionnal enmity with Venice. IOTL, it was a client of Spain, ITTL, it could become a client of France.
Savoy would be ITTL geographically surrounded by french allies or territories. I think it would be a french ally.
The Papacy would be caught in a squeeze between Tuscany and Naples.
Venice would be the main threat on land, and Aragon, the main naval threat.
 
For Charles VIII, it's easy to see the base of the claim over Naples, but I've not yet found dynastical links with the neapolitan royal house for Louis XII and Francis I.
If this link exists, what is it?
 
For Charles VIII, it's easy to see the base of the claim over Naples, but I've not yet found dynastical links with the neapolitan royal house for Louis XII and Francis I.
If this link exists, what is it?

They have no link personally, however, they're continuing the French claims by right of being the closest surviving senior male relative.

Louis XII also added a link to Milan that allowed Francis I to take it.
 
galileo-034 said:
For Charles VIII, it's easy to see the base of the claim over Naples, but I've not yet found dynastical links with the neapolitan royal house for Louis XII and Francis I.
If this link exists, what is it?

I always thought Charles VIII inherited the dynastic claims to Naples because the House of Valois-Anjou had died out. Thus, the heirs to the Valois-Anjou claims were that of their French cousins, the main branch of the House of Valois who happened to be Kings of France. I maybe wrong but it seems to me it worked that way. Taking this logic, the inheritance of Charles VIII's right to the Neapolitan throne by Louis XII and then Francis I would make sense as the three of them descend from King Charles V of France.

Charles V had two sons, the eldest of whom became Charles VI the Mad, King of France. Charles VI had five sons but only one survived up to adulthood: OTL Charles VII the Victorious. For his part, Charles VII only fathered two sons: Louis XI the Spider King and Charles, Duke of Berry. The first had only one surviving son, Charles VIII, who died childless while the second died unmarried. With Charles VIII's death, the main branch of the House of Valois had died in the male line, which resulted in the accession of Louis XII to the throne via Salic Law. Technically, the claims to Naples could have been transferred via Female Line but the French weren't used to this. For that matter, I think all female descendants of Charles VI the Mad died childless or had no longer any descendant alive by that point: the only exception would be Catherine of Valois, wife of Henry V of England then of a certain Owen Tudor, grandfather of Henry VII of England... And I doubt the Tudors would be interested in Naples!

Louis XII and Francis I are both descendants from Charles VI of France's brother: Louis, Duke of Orléans. The latter had married Valentine Visconti and it was by her that Louis XII and Francis I got their claims on the Duchy of Milan. Louis of Orléans and Valentine Visconti had three sons but only two of them had male descendants: Charles, Duke of Orléans, and John, Count of Angoulême. As Charles of Orléans was the eldest son, his own son Louis became Louis XII of France upon Charles VIII's death. Louis XII died with only two daughters: Claude and Renée. Renée is not very importante to remember, except for the fact that she married Ercole II d'Este and that made Modena and ally of France.

Claude for her part married her cousin Francis I. Francis I was a the eldest grandson of John of Angoulême. By Salic Law, he was Louis XII's heir to the French throne and that's probably one of the reasons he married his daughter Claude to Francis I (another reason being that Claude could be considered as the legal Duchess of Britanny following the death of her mother, Anne of Britanny). Regarding his claims on Naples and Milan, he can be looked as having inherited them by two ways: either by following Salic Law or in right of his wife.

I hope I was clear enough and didn't make this sound too complicated...
 

Vitruvius

Donor
The Charles VIII's claim to Naples was three fold. On the one hand Charles IV of Anjou, last male line descendent of the House of Anjou, willed Naples Provence and Anjou to him. But that will was forced and based in part upon Charles VIII's descent from Marie d'Anjou, his grandmother and wife of Charles VII. She was the sister of Charles IV's father Charles of Le Maine and of his uncle Rene I. I discussed this here in another thread. Charles IV had no heirs nor siblings to pass anything to. However Rene I had a daughter, Yolande of Bar, who was married to the Count of Vaudemont. Under normal circumstances her claim would be superior to that of her aunt Marie and Marie's descendents. Hence the forced will specifying the French crown.

The third and weekest part of the claim is that Charles VIII and Charles IV of Lorraine were both male line descendents of Margaret of Anjou wife of Charles Count of Valois (who incidentally is progenitor of the House of Valois). Margaret's dowry was Anjou itself which led to the creation of the House of Valois-Anjou when her grandson John II enfeoffed his second son Louis with Anjou. Louis was then adopted by Joan I Naples of the senior Capetian House of Anjou bringing the claims to Naples to the younger Valois House of Anjou. But the younger house never ruled there. The Hungarian Durazzo branch of the Capetian-Anjou line continued until Joan II who again adopted a Valois-Anjou. But they failed to press their claims against the Trastamara. Nevertheless this is were the idea of closest male heir comes in. Though its ambiguous because the claim really only extends to Anjou because that was the extent of Margaret's dowry. Joan I's adoption rights extend only to the younger House of Anjou not to the rest of the Valois so even under Salic law it couldn't pass outside Valois-Anjou unless it's considered to originate from Margaret, which by the marriage contract it couldn't. If anything Joan I and Joan II's acts of adoption and the Valois-Anjou claims that extend from them set the precedent that the Neapolitan inheritance could be willed to a particular claimant regardless of the familial relationship.

So when Charles VIII dies without heirs he can will his claims to Louis XII. But if we were to follow strict rules of inheritance there are other claimants. Yolande's son Rene II of Lorraine that would have the best claim to Naples but if we assume his claims have already been disavowed it could pass through Louis XI's daughter Anne. She married Peter II of Bourbon but was survived only by her daughter Suzanne who married OTL Charles III of Bourbon of the Montpensier branch of Bourbon. This is interesting in that Charles III had no children with Suzanne and upon her death (in 1521) he disputed the Bourbon inheritance with Francis I's mother Louise of Savoy, leading to his switch to Spanish allegiance. Though its hard to see him ever claiming Naples jure uxoris as he never did OTL.

With Anne having no male descendents her younger sister could claim to be heir apparent of Naples. Her sister was Joan of Berry who was married to Louis d'Orleans, OTL Louis XII. It was a forced marriage and OTL Louis had the marriage annulled as soon as her brother (Charles VIII) died. So if she is considered crucial to retaining control of Naples he may put up with her but the trade off is he would be unable to marry Anne of Brittany and thus Brittany would pass out of the French crown to whoever marries Anne. Furthermore its unlikely he would ever have a child with Joan making it hard to pass those claims on. That's a big part of why this didn't happen OTL, it meant sacrificing Brittany and the hope of perpetuating the House of Orleans in favor of being heir apparent behind Anne's daughter Suzanne (it's impossible to know in 1499 that Suzanne would never have children).

Thus neither Rene II of Lorraine nor Suzanne de Bourbon are likely to be able to press their, somewhat theoretical, claims and indeed neither did OTL. So even though its somewhat unorthodox as a matter of realpolitik the claims pass to Louis XII d'Orleans even if he annuls his marriage to Joan. Allowing him to claim Naples and Brittany by marrying Anne of Brittany. Milan is relatively straightforward. As Yorel outlined it stems from Valentina Visconti. Francis I can claim it via a salic law as a descendent of Valentina or jure uxoris as husband of Louis XII's daughter Claude (who was responsible for transmitting Brittany to him).

To pull out the relevant points for this TTL I would say that Rene II or Suzanne could be useful pawns in the Italian wars. Indeed Suzanne's OTL husband did get involved and lead the Spanish armies against France precisely because of a succession dispute (thought OTL it was over the Duchy of Bourbon). I should also note that Suzanne's marriage OTL was 1505 so well after the POD so she may marry some one else TTL, perhaps someone who wants to use her as a pretext to claim Naples. In that vein Francis I may make a good choice as he also brings added claims to Bourbon via his mother, though with the same trade off of loosing Brittany. There's also the deposed Trastamara Kings of Naples to consider. They could make for good pretenders if someone wanted to back them, though the Spanish may just assume press their own claims directly as Ferdinand II did OTL. It's also worth mentioning that the Pope, as nominal feudal lord of Naples (the crown was still theoretical of fief of the Papacy) can add considerable legitimacy to any claim advancing the cause of a particular pretender.

Make of this what you will. To quote Yorel 'I hope I was clear enough and didn't make this sound too complicated...'
 
Claude for her part married her cousin Francis I. Francis I was a the eldest grandson of John of Angoulême. By Salic Law, he was Louis XII's heir to the French throne and that's probably one of the reasons he married his daughter Claude to Francis I (another reason being that Claude could be considered as the legal Duchess of Britanny following the death of her mother, Anne of Britanny).

This was indeed the main cause, and heavy pressure was put on Renee as a kid so that she would renounce all claims to Brittanny (to the point where they got rid of much of her household because some of her tutors considered it a) against her interests and b) not to be legally admissible)
 
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