Alternate Invasion of Darwin TL discussion link
- Thread starter CalBear
- Start date
First, I would like to acknowledge BlackMage. His TL got me thinking about the possibilities of a different ending.
A few other points:
I apoligize for not inserting greater detail as far as historical Offiers names and operational unit names from the era. Frankly that was a little more archive research than I wanted to make for a quick TL.
I am aware of one glaring error (and I'm sure that I will be told of others
): I originally added AH-64 Apache's to the TL, jumping the gun by almost 4 years. I corrected this AS-1 Cobras in the second & third post.
I am looking for comments. This is my first substantial fiction post on the board & comments will be helpful.
A few other points:
I apoligize for not inserting greater detail as far as historical Offiers names and operational unit names from the era. Frankly that was a little more archive research than I wanted to make for a quick TL.
I am aware of one glaring error (and I'm sure that I will be told of others
): I originally added AH-64 Apache's to the TL, jumping the gun by almost 4 years. I corrected this AS-1 Cobras in the second & third post.I am looking for comments. This is my first substantial fiction post on the board & comments will be helpful.
backstab
Banned
This timeline is pretty good, more realistic and would have had a better chance to happen. But a few pointers
In the 1980's the only substantial Army unit in Darwin was Norforce ( Surveilance ) manned by Reservists ( A lot of Aboriginals ). This unit despite beeing a Reserve unit is highly profesional ( I have worked with them before) and would play some part in the intial battle before vanishing into the bush to wage a insurgent type war.
Just a thought.
In the 1980's the only substantial Army unit in Darwin was Norforce ( Surveilance ) manned by Reservists ( A lot of Aboriginals ). This unit despite beeing a Reserve unit is highly profesional ( I have worked with them before) and would play some part in the intial battle before vanishing into the bush to wage a insurgent type war.
Just a thought.
backstab
Banned
CalBear said:
NO they are regional surveilance. Think of a poor mans SAS. In peace time they conduct Recce of the unpopulated beaches in the North of Australia looking for drug smugglers and illeagal immagrants. At the time of the invasion at least 1 Sqn would be out on Surveilance tasks. As for what they use ... thaey have specialized 6x6 Streached land rovers fitted with HF radios and other surveilance equipment. The Aboriginals in the unit are extremly good trackers.
Hope this helps
Also there is a major Airforce bace at Katherine called Tindal AFB
Very good work! I'm glad that I could inspire something so entertaining and so thoughtful. And much more realistic than mine, I must admit.
Although I still question Suharto's motives. What would the point of aggravating the USA and UK be just to annex the Top End? Which, admittedly, is something of a problem in my TL as well, but just 'he wants to annex territory' is a bit of a slim motivation for a politician as long-lasting and as pragmatic as Suharto was.
Although I still question Suharto's motives. What would the point of aggravating the USA and UK be just to annex the Top End? Which, admittedly, is something of a problem in my TL as well, but just 'he wants to annex territory' is a bit of a slim motivation for a politician as long-lasting and as pragmatic as Suharto was.
BlackMage said:
I didn't put it in, because the TL was turning into a full-blown short story, but I predicated his actions on the mineral reserves in the North Territory. There seems to be a number of mines in the Darwin region, including at least one uranium mine & a couple of gold mines. I also assumed that the initial landing would be the basis for cutting off the entire Northern end of Australia from Cairns all the way to the Indian Ocean.
Thanks for the feedback.
CalBear said:
Good idea. And, on a second reading, I've noticed more his somewhat questionable approach to sanity; again, very good work on your TL.
Just a brief side question (because I'm always fascinated by Australia invasion TLs, since they're the only ones in which power comes out the hands of Liberal or Labor): in the NT invasion, do you see the Indonesian troops being stationed mainly in Darwin or spread out across the captured territory? It's just for my Version 3.0 of my TL, which will be finished in the cold, distant future.
Darkest
Banned
No territory is seized from Indonesia? Not even Timor?
I need some geopolitical changes, man. That's what makes the world go round.
Seriously, it was a really good ATL. Extremely plausible in my opinion. The Indonesians held it as long as they could and got their just reward.
Too bad, though. There has to be a way Indonesia can grab some more territory through military efforts. WWIII?
I need some geopolitical changes, man. That's what makes the world go round.
Seriously, it was a really good ATL. Extremely plausible in my opinion. The Indonesians held it as long as they could and got their just reward.
Too bad, though. There has to be a way Indonesia can grab some more territory through military efforts. WWIII?
BlackMage said:
They would have to garrison much of the region, especially near any town or city. They may be able to get by with battalion sized forces mounting patrols out of firebases, but they would certainly need to have a noteworthy presence.
This is bases on my (admittedly limited) understanding of the general "Australian" mindset. I can't see the occupied population just passively accepting the situation. I know you have reserve troops in the area (Backstab was kind enough to give me some information on the Darwin units.). I also know that your SAS force is exceptionally capable (a few of my co-workers have had the opprotunity to train and/or work with them), and many retired/tour completed troops from SAS, as well as those from conventional forces, would not go gentle into the night. Some of these folks, as well as regular residents, would be sure to make life interesting for occupation forces.
What I can't quite find a reasonable way to achieve is Australian forces being able to push the Indonesians out once they are established. The math just doesn't work. The Indonesians have six or seven times the population to draw from, so their forces will always be much larger. With a little warning I can easily see Australia being able to STOP the invasion, but uprooting it? That might be more of a long shot.
Best of luck with your rewrite.
Darkest90 said:
The Indonesians could, but they need to find a country that doesn't have a mutual defense treaty with a permanent member of the Security Council. Australia is at the right place on the map, but is the wrong way to step. Indonesia, in 1980, might have gotten away with agression on Borneo, as long as the left Brunei alone, or on New Guinea, but that's about it. Go after Singapore or the Malay Peninsula, and too many toes get stomped. The Strait of Malacca is way too strategic for the U.S. to allow trouble there. (All that oil tanker traffic & such.)
Thanks for the feedback.
Dislodging the Indonesians from Australian territory might not be too difficult if the Australian navy or air force can cut off the invasion force from reinforcements. Having eight times the population doesn't help if you can't get it to where you need it.
Also, how many nuclear reactors does Australia have? I'm told that Japan, with its advanced industries and multiple nuclear plants, could build a respectable nuclear arsenal in weeks.
If things get very bad, could the Australians do the same thing?
How much civilian resistance was there to the Indonesian invasion and how much damage did it do? In TTL, you might not see the gun regulation of OTL in Australia, since there'd be a more credible reason for civilians to own guns, esp. the military-grade variety (never know what some crazy Suharto-wannabe might do next).
Also, how many nuclear reactors does Australia have? I'm told that Japan, with its advanced industries and multiple nuclear plants, could build a respectable nuclear arsenal in weeks.
If things get very bad, could the Australians do the same thing?
How much civilian resistance was there to the Indonesian invasion and how much damage did it do? In TTL, you might not see the gun regulation of OTL in Australia, since there'd be a more credible reason for civilians to own guns, esp. the military-grade variety (never know what some crazy Suharto-wannabe might do next).
The resupply issue is a good question. The problem I see is that by the time you have starved out the Indonesians, you will have starved your civilain population 1st. Nothing says that the Indonesians have to react according to Hoyle. Imagine East Timor in Darwin.
I don't know the number of reactors in Australia, however, what would really be needed is a BREEDER reactor, something that's designed to enrich/create weapons grade materials instead of power. You can modify one to become the other, but it isn't a quick process. After you have the material, you now need to separate out the Plutonium & U-238 from the depleted Uranium. After that... Easier things to do. You also need to consider the willingness of any government to use nukes on their own soil. It becomes a game of "We had to burn the villiage to save it" pretty quickly.
I didn't insert anything into the TL about resistance from the Civilian population, although if I was going to make the TL into something more substantial, it would have been there. I would assume, as I mention in one of replies to BlackMage, that there are a number of veteran's in the area, as well as untrained civilians who would have a problem with what had occured. How effective they would be is an excellent question; my thoughts are that they would be an irritant, but not decisive.
As far as post war butterflies? Who knows? Not just in Australia or New Zealand or even in Indonesia, but world-wide. Even if the USSR falls apart on schedule, what then? The "English- speaking" countries or "The West" will have demonstrated a willingness to stand up to agression. Do the Argentines try for the Falklands? Compared to Australia, the Falklands are a short stroll from Norfolk VA, home of the US Atlantic Fleet. Does Sadaam decide that the West will just sit there and frown when he invades Kuwait; or does he remember the fate of Suharto?
Changes in Australia's gun control laws are likely; maybe it turns in Switzerland or Israel, with every house containing full-on military assault weapons, maybe it becomes like much of the American Southwest, where gun ownership is practically a given for much of the population. I would guess that gun law changes will be least of the changes in Oz.
Thanks for the questions & the feedback.
I don't know the number of reactors in Australia, however, what would really be needed is a BREEDER reactor, something that's designed to enrich/create weapons grade materials instead of power. You can modify one to become the other, but it isn't a quick process. After you have the material, you now need to separate out the Plutonium & U-238 from the depleted Uranium. After that... Easier things to do. You also need to consider the willingness of any government to use nukes on their own soil. It becomes a game of "We had to burn the villiage to save it" pretty quickly.
I didn't insert anything into the TL about resistance from the Civilian population, although if I was going to make the TL into something more substantial, it would have been there. I would assume, as I mention in one of replies to BlackMage, that there are a number of veteran's in the area, as well as untrained civilians who would have a problem with what had occured. How effective they would be is an excellent question; my thoughts are that they would be an irritant, but not decisive.
As far as post war butterflies? Who knows? Not just in Australia or New Zealand or even in Indonesia, but world-wide. Even if the USSR falls apart on schedule, what then? The "English- speaking" countries or "The West" will have demonstrated a willingness to stand up to agression. Do the Argentines try for the Falklands? Compared to Australia, the Falklands are a short stroll from Norfolk VA, home of the US Atlantic Fleet. Does Sadaam decide that the West will just sit there and frown when he invades Kuwait; or does he remember the fate of Suharto?
Changes in Australia's gun control laws are likely; maybe it turns in Switzerland or Israel, with every house containing full-on military assault weapons, maybe it becomes like much of the American Southwest, where gun ownership is practically a given for much of the population. I would guess that gun law changes will be least of the changes in Oz.
Thanks for the questions & the feedback.
Darkest
Banned
Maybe a radical Indonesian revanchist party develops in whatever new government takes over in Indonesia, seeing north Australia as Indonesia's?
Maybe Australia holds a special breed of racism against Indonesia, causing further conflicts?
Ah, the modern age. How I long for the malleability of the Great War or WWII, when a country only has to pay an army and a little bit of luck to change borders.
What if a UN mandate gives all of Timor to a new Republic? Or hands Borneo over for Malaysian supervision? Communist takeover in Indonesia following such disasters, due to disheartened people turning to an ideology? Following civil war? WWIII?
Maybe Australia holds a special breed of racism against Indonesia, causing further conflicts?
Ah, the modern age. How I long for the malleability of the Great War or WWII, when a country only has to pay an army and a little bit of luck to change borders.
What if a UN mandate gives all of Timor to a new Republic? Or hands Borneo over for Malaysian supervision? Communist takeover in Indonesia following such disasters, due to disheartened people turning to an ideology? Following civil war? WWIII?
CalBear said:
If you ask DMA I think he'll tell you that the Lucas Height reactor is a early British breeder type design I can remember him mentioning it once in another thread.
As for nuking Australian territory why bother when the F-111 and Tornadoes that we WOULD get from the UK could strike at the Indoneasian home islands.
I have read this TL and don't think it's very plausable but thats just my opinion as it relies on way too many treaties being ignored.
And the effect of the treaty breaches would effectively destroy any credibality the UN, US and other countries have..
Sorry I confused your TL with the other TL about the invason of Australia.
Disregard my above comment as they in relation to the other TL.
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