Alternate History Probabilities

Sometimes you read some history and think "What are the odds? That could've easily gone the other way." Like how George Washington had multiple horses shot out from under him.

I was wondering about probabilities. The question I'm asking is:

What are the odds of the given scenario?

If you visited one hundred time lines, given a specific PoD, what percentage of them would have the specified outcome?

PoD 1938 or later
Nazi atom bomb by 1946

PoD 1991 or later
Ross Perot elected PotUS in 1992

PoD 3/30/81 to 4/2/81
Reagan assassinated by Hinkley

PoD 11/22/63
JFK survives assassination attempt

PoD 9/1960 or later
Nixon wins in 1960

PoD 1890 or later
World War I begins before 1895

PoD 1905 or later
World War I begins before 1910

PoD 1903 or later
Czar deposed in 1905

PoD 1917 or later
Reds lose Russian Civil War

PoD 7/28/14 or later
Central Powers victory in WW1

PoD 1929 or later
Edward VIII never abdicates

PoD 9/1/39 or later
British Expeditionary Force captured at Dunkirk

Pod 1936 or later
Nazi invasion of England during WW2

PoD 1936 or later
Britain capitulates in WW2

PoD 9/1/45 or later
Patton lives beyond 1945

PoD 1914 or later
Germany broke up at Versailles

PoD 1945 or later
Soviet Lunar landing by 1980
US Lunar landing by 1980
Soviet Mars landing by 1990
US Mars landing by 1990

Pod 1929 or later
MacArthur presidency by 1945

PoD 1945
World War III before 1960
WW3 before 1975
WW3 before 1985
World War V before 1995
 
PoD 1938 or later
Nazi atom bomb by 1946
40%

PoD 1991 or later
Ross Perot elected PotUS in 1992
24%

PoD 3/30/81 to 4/2/81
Reagan assassinated by Hinkley
60%

PoD 11/22/63
JFK survives assassination attempt
60%

PoD 9/1960 or later
Nixon wins in 1960
50%

PoD 1890 or later
World War I begins before 1895
25%

PoD 1905 or later
World War I begins before 1910
35%

PoD 1903 or later
Czar deposed in 1905
25%

PoD 1917 or later
Reds lose Russian Civil War
45%

PoD 7/28/14 or later
Central Powers victory in WW1
55%

PoD 1929 or later
Edward VIII never abdicates
60%

PoD 9/1/39 or later
British Expeditionary Force captured at Dunkirk
65%

Pod 1936 or later
Nazi invasion of England during WW2
70%

PoD 1936 or later
Britain capitulates in WW2
60%

PoD 9/1/45 or later
Patton lives beyond 1945
95%

PoD 1914 or later
Germany broke up at Versailles
20%

PoD 1945 or later
Soviet Lunar landing by 1980
20%
US Lunar landing by 1980
75%
Soviet Mars landing by 1990
5%
US Mars landing by 1990
10%

Pod 1929 or later
MacArthur presidency by 1945
15%

PoD 1945
World War III before 1960
40%
WW3 before 1975
20%
WW3 before 1985
25%
World War V before 1995
5%
 
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