Alternate History: Operation Northwoods Gets the Go-Ahead

For the sake of reference, Operation Northwoods was a false flag attack proposed by the US Department of Defense in 1962. It called for the CIA to commit commit various acts of terror in US cities, and blame them on Cuba, in order to generate a Casus Belli to remove the communist government that had taken over Cuba.
IOTL this was authorized by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, but was rejected by the Kennedy administration.

ITTL the attacks happen. The authorities state that Cuba did the attacks, and the public is outraged. Calls for a military intervention in Cuba grow, and Congress unanimously votes to declare war on Cuba.

What happens now? How do the Soviets react? How does the world react? Lets have a civil debate in the comments section below
 
There would be 9/11-esque conspiracy theories about the supposed 'Cuban terrorist attacks' for decades to come. It is highly unlikely that the US government would ever confess to staging the attacks, so the truth is forever hidden.
 
There would be 9/11-esque conspiracy theories about the supposed 'Cuban terrorist attacks' for decades to come. It is highly unlikely that the US government would ever confess to staging the attacks, so the truth is forever hidden.

I think it is more likely something eventually slips out, either somebody writing a posthumously published 'tell all' memoir or some sort of document leak. After all both Watergate and Iran-Contra were revealed basically by someone with a relatively petty grudge deciding to screw over their superiors.

Once things do get out, it is very difficult to tell but it wouldn't surprise me if we see cratering trust in the US government, possibly leading to someone like McGovern becoming president or alternatively George Wallace.

teg
 
I'm not entirely convinced Operation Northwoods was real, purely due to its use of the word "holiday," which is British English, with Yanqui being "vacation." The relevant document would have been reviewed endlessly, and I don't see how this could have been missed. The story is told yonder: https://www.academia.edu/3596690/Operation_Northwoods_Terrorism_by_the_U.S._Government

The documentary record would seem to disagree with you. (The good stuff starts on p. 10, and yes, it does use the word holiday.)

Source goes to the National Security Archive at George Washington University, which specializes in freedom-of-information applications for foreign policy-related research.

That said it reads a lot more like a brainstorming session gone horribly awry than an actual plan. It's hard to imagine the Kennedy or any other administration trying to implement some of the more far-fetched options because if it ever leaked to the press it would be instant impeachment. If you were the president, would removing Castro really be worth risking your presidency?

Still, if you want to know, this gets drawn up and implemented over the summer of 1962, which means it collides straight into the Soviet decision at the same time to install nuclear missiles in Cuba. If the invasion goes ahead before the missiles arrive, the Soviets will have no choice but to accept the loss of Cuba. They will truthfully denounce the attacks as American lies, but this will be written off as the usual Soviet lying.
 
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IMHO the Soviets would not escalate this, as they might see Cuba as not worth blowing out of proportion. They would probably just issue a very strong diplomatic protest. Assuming Northwoods happens before missiles are put on Cuba.

If they already are, they might still just protest, but take no action as the US had better nuclear capabilities (this is why the Soviets backed down IOTL I believe). The US would destroy any missiles in an air campaign before invading regardless.

What happens to Cuba after a successful invasion is unclear. The US had plans to place Cuba under temporary military government, but it may become either a protectorate, a independent democratic country, or a full US annexation. Insurgency may continue for years afterward.

After all, I’m not a Historian, and I don’t entirely know this topic that well.
 
I'm not entirely convinced Operation Northwoods was real, purely due to its use of the word "holiday," which is British English, with Yanqui being "vacation." The relevant document would have been reviewed endlessly, and I don't see how this could have been missed. The story is told yonder: https://www.academia.edu/3596690/Operation_Northwoods_Terrorism_by_the_U.S._Government
Vacation may be more common, but holiday is used on occassion. The hotel chain isn't called "Vacation Inn" and the DKs didn't sing about a "Vacation in Cambodia".
 

Deleted member 97083

I'm not entirely convinced Operation Northwoods was real, purely due to its use of the word "holiday," which is British English, with Yanqui being "vacation." The relevant document would have been reviewed endlessly, and I don't see how this could have been missed. The story is told yonder: https://www.academia.edu/3596690/Operation_Northwoods_Terrorism_by_the_U.S._Government
I admit that, to my untrained eye, the documents linked to appear genuine, but can we be sure? Are you telling us these are official documents held at the National Security Archive of George Washington University? While we're on the subject of conspiracy theories, George Washington smoked dope. (https://www.academia.edu/3596748/Th...748/The_Guy_on_the_One_Dollar_Bill_Smoked_Pot)
Wait a second. So you're questioning the validity of a commonly accepted historical document, implying it's fabricated, with the only evidence cited being the use of a single uncommon word... and you're calling everyone else in the thread a conspiracy theorist?
 

Anchises

Banned
The documentary record would seem to disagree with you. (The good stuff starts on p. 10, and yes, it does use the word holiday.)

Source goes to the National Security Archive at George Washington University, which specializes in freedom-of-information applications for foreign policy-related research.

That said it reads a lot more like a brainstorming session gone horribly awry than an actual plan. It's hard to imagine the Kennedy or any other administration trying to implement some of the more far-fetched options because if it ever leaked to the press it would be instant impeachment. If you were the president, would removing Castro really be worth risking your presidency?

Still, if you want to know, this gets drawn up and implemented over the summer of 1962, which means it collides straight into the Soviet decision at the same time to install nuclear missiles in Cuba. If the invasion goes ahead before the missiles arrive, the Soviets will have no choice but to accept the loss of Cuba. They will truthfully denounce the attacks as American lies, but this will be written off as the usual Soviet lying.

Well to talk about the two most interesting possibilities:

1) The false flag fails. Either someone develops a conscience/grudge and leaks the whole thing or it is pulled of to amateurish.

We have a mess that makes Watergate look tame. The period of "Imperial Presidencies" is ended much sooner (more congressional oversight, a critical press etc.).

2) The Soviet plans to station atomic weapons on Kuba are revealed after a "successful" Operation Northwoods.

America uses this for a great propaganda victory.

"The Atomic weapons would have prevented the decisive action we took (invasion). The Soviets were trying to establish a permanent outpost for terror and agression close to our shores."
 
Considering that we have Holiday Inn and Holiday in Cambodia (of which I hadn't previously heard), I now realize the word can be used in U.S. English.

I wasn't sure this was a commonly accepted historical document, which is why I asked for confirmation that the document was truly part of the National Security Archive, and it sounds like it is.
 
It's unlikely Kennedy approves it, because if it were discovered and leaked it would mean absolute disaster for the Kennedy Administration
Another more likely possibility is that Operation Northwoods happens behind Kennedy's back.

If Kennedy finds out before it happens, a "Great Purge" of Joint Chiefs of Staff and the CIA might be executed. This might result in an actual sanctioned assassination of Kennedy (though some believe the CIA killed Kennedy anyway for being too soft on Communism). If it succeeds and Kennedy most likely finds out, then he still purges the JCS and CIA and then is forced to declare war on Cuba in light of public outcry for war.

Organized resistance in Cuba falls very quickly, and the tiny island is placed under US military occupation. Now the US has to deal with an insurgency deep in the mountains. They'll either plant a regime closely tied to the USA, or just annex Cuba. I don't know long term plans for the territory.

By the way, the Soviet Union can't fund insurgents because of the sheer distance and hostile territory having to cross, unlike in Vietnam where they could pour in arms relatively easily.

Remember, the Cuban Missile Crisis happened in October, and missile sites weren't being constructed until the summer of 1962. If the US discovers missile sites under construction as they invade, there is the massive propaganda victory and major embarrassment for the Soviet Union, leading the US to be more inclined to do military ventures and a more passive Soviet Union.
 
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Considering that we have Holiday Inn and Holiday in Cambodia (of which I hadn't previously heard), I now realize the word can be used in U.S. English.

I wasn't sure this was a commonly accepted historical document, which is why I asked for confirmation that the document was truly part of the National Security Archive, and it sounds like it is.
Despite the reaction you provoked here I think it's a fair enough question. Surely every one of us, the first time we read it, had that, "What? Who wrote this?" reaction.

As I say, though, I think the important thing to bear in mind is that this was clearly a thinkpiece about contingencies, not an actual plan. I think saying "the JCS approved this but Kennedy refused" is slightly misleading. The Joint Chiefs were asked to produce a list of "pretexts which would provide justification" for an invasion, so they delegated the task, their subgroup came up with the list of pretexts, and then they sent it back up the chain to the defense secretary.

I realize I'm splitting hairs here, but I just don't want people to form the wrong impression. As is clear from the document I posted, what we have on record didn't progress beyond the brainstorming phase, and the more inflammatory ideas, like the terrorist campaign and blowing up ships, were just several of the many options presented. The JCS are supposed to come up with strike options. They also have various plans for blowing up half the world with nuclear weapons, but we don't go around saying, "The JCS wanted to blow up half the world with nuclear weapons, but so far every president has stopped them."
 
I realize I'm splitting hairs here, but I just don't want people to form the wrong impression. As is clear from the document I posted, what we have on record didn't progress beyond the brainstorming phase, and the more inflammatory ideas, like the terrorist campaign and blowing up ships, were just several of the many options presented. The JCS are supposed to come up with strike options. They also have various plans for blowing up half the world with nuclear weapons, but we don't go around saying, "The JCS wanted to blow up half the world with nuclear weapons, but so far every president has stopped them."
It was authorized by the JCS and proposed to the president, which Kennedy firmly rejected. This was not a contingency plan like nuking half the world, it was a real proposed operation. So the statement "The JCS authorized the plan, but Kennedy rejected it" is accurate.

Relating to the thread in general, let us stop questioning the validity of Operation Northwoods and focus on its consequences. This is an forum for alternate history, and I do not want my forum to be used to generate and discuss conspiracies and question an operation that was declassified by the CIA
 
It was authorized by the JCS and proposed to the president, which Kennedy firmly rejected. This was not a contingency plan like nuking half the world, it was a real proposed operation. So the statement "The JCS authorized the plan, but Kennedy rejected it" is accurate.

Relating to the thread in general, let us stop questioning the validity of Operation Northwoods and focus on its consequences. This is an forum for alternate history, and I do not want my forum to be used to generate and discuss conspiracies and question an operation that was declassified by the CIA
Um... okay. The only person who questioned the existence of the document was Sarariman, and I was the one who posted the link to rebut him. I'm not advancing conspiracy theories.

We may have to agree to disagree on the substance of the Northwood memorandum. The sequence of documents I posted is the only one I know of. What specifically do you think the "real proposed operation" -- your words -- in question was? Because that document lists in its appendix a wide range of potential real operations, only one of which is the terrorist campaign inside the United States. It doesn't say they're going to carry out all of them. It says these are pretexts that we could use to justify an invasion of Cuba, in response to a request from the Cuba project office to generate just that, a list of pretexts that we could use to justify an invasion of Cuba.

Further, in March 1962, Lemnitzer referred in a meeting with Kenney to the existence of "contingency plans" (link) for attacking Cuba, and Kennedy at that time said the use of military force was not on the table. That clearly wasn't the end of the matter, however, since the Wikipedia article says they continued drawing up other contingency plans into 1963.

I split these hairs because the consequences are obviously going to be different depending on how this plays out. For instance, maybe they pick one of the other options, like a simulated attack on Guantanamo. Are you specifically asking here what you think would happen if the U.S. government carried out false-flag terrorist attacks inside the continental U.S.?
 
A less politicaly risky way to have a caus-belli with Cuba is to change the landing zone of the bay of pig invasion". make them land near Guitmo. Cuba artillerie will hit the base and you have you casus-belli ;)
 
A less politicaly risky way to have a caus-belli with Cuba is to change the landing zone of the bay of pig invasion". make them land near Guitmo. Cuba artillerie will hit the base and you have you casus-belli ;)
Not Likely. United States generals would not allow combat to occur against one of the most important military bases. Here I am talking about a real Operation Northwoods, carried out behind the back of the Kennedy administration.
 
Not Likely. United States generals would not allow combat to occur against one of the most important military bases. Here I am talking about a real Operation Northwoods, carried out behind the back of the Kennedy administration.
I hope you see the irony in accusing us of conspiracy theorizing and then calling for speculation about the U.S. military carrying out a covert operation without clearance from the White House.

Anyhow, the Northwoods brainstorming document contained precisely the scenario you might be looking for here. Quoting from that document:

A series of well coordinated incidents will be planned to take place in and around Guantanamo to give genuine appearance of being done by hostile Cuban forces.

a. Incidents to establish a credible attack (not in chronological order):

  1. Start rumors (many). Use clandestine radio.
  2. Land friendly Cubans in uniform 'over-the-fence' to stage attack on base.
  3. Capture Cuban (friendly) saboteurs inside the base.
  4. Start riots near the base main gate (friendly Cubans).
  5. Blow up ammunition inside the base; start fires.
  6. Burn aircraft on air base (sabotage).
  7. Lob mortar shells from outside of base into base. Some damage to installations.
  8. Capture assault teams approaching from the sea or vicinity of Guantanamo City.
  9. Capture militia group which storms the base.
  10. Sabotage ship in harbor; large fires - napthalene.
  11. Sink ship near harbor entrance. Conduct funerals for mock-victims.
b. United States would respond by executing offensive operations...

Later they suggest they could blow a ship in the harbor and similarly blame Cuba, which they refer to, amusingly, as "a Remember the Maine incident."
 
I say behind the back of the white house, because IMO there is no way would Kennedy approve an operation that if leaked would result in a scandal that would make Watergate look tame.

Still I think it would take more than an attack on Guantanamo Bay to rally the US public to a military intervention in Cuba. Perhaps more attacks are used, in Northwoods they mention blowing up a fake raft of Cuban refugees, actually blow up a raft of Cuban refugees, shoot down a passenger airliner, or conduct campaigns of terror in major US cities, even Washington D.C.

ITTL there are conspiracy theories that it was an inside job, but these are quickly dismissed with fabricated evidence that Cuba-sponsored terrorists did the attack.

Outcome: The operation succeeds, and the US invades Cuba. What US soldiers find shocks the public. They discover missile sites in the process of being constructed on Cuba. The Kremlin denies it, but it is soon made clear Nikita Khrushchev ordered the construction of nukes. What happens with this alternate "Cuban Missile Crisis" is up for anyone to say.

A temporary military government is put in place as stated in plans, but the long term outlook is unclear. It may be annexed, turned into a protectorate, or have a friendly government based probably Cuban exiles put in power. Nevertheless guerrilla warfare continues for months or years after the Cuban military collapses.
 
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