Alternate History Challenge: WWII - neither US involvement, nor the Pacific War

Two challenges in one:
- Make a somewhat plausible (but - more importantly - especially orginal) timeline which makes a situation possible in which the US did not interfere in World War II and there would not be a Pacific theatre of the war.
- What would be the consequences of this? Fantasize and create a timeline that describes this alternate World War II and in particular the aftermath.

Go ahead and have fun :p!
 
No Pearl Harbor

More isolationist politicians.

US pulled out of the Great Depression by manufacturing weapons and supplies for everyone.

Have the nazi's ideology turned down a notch.


Just a few ideas
 

JRScott

Banned
The only way to avoid a US entry into the war is to avoid attacking Pearl Harbor and the Philippines. If Japan had held out 2 more years Philippines should have been an independent state, making it easier to attack and not involve the USA.

The problem is Japan is low on Oil they can continue for about another year in offensive operations. That's enough time to take Indonesia, the US Congress will not approve a declaration of war over Indonesia. Indonesia's oil would give Japan the resources it needs.

Okay since Japan never attacks Pearl Harbor, the USA never declares war on Japan, Germany and Italy never declare war on the USA. The USA is at least for the foreseeable future out of the war. FDR would continue making preparations as he wants war. That probably means a modest ship building program, modest army and marine build up. He'd use the new assets to shore up Hawaii, Alaska, Philippines, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas. He would concentrate on preparing defenses in the Pacific, Caribbean and elsewhere. He would also establish US bases on the various British holdings including the allowed airbases acquired in the Destroyers for Bases deal in 1940. Lend-Lease will continue for Russia, France, Britain, and other allied nations (Turkey for example). If Japan invades an independent Philippines later in the war then lend-lease would be extended to the Philippines.

What happens in Europe. Mostly the war between Germany and Russia continue as OTL, Germany has early gains in 41 but the winter of 41 sees them lose ground. 42 sees another German offensive which like in 41 does not achieve its objectives, the Soviet war time economy has now outpaced Germany's. To put it plainly Germany is in deep doo doo. There will be no western democracies. Britain lacks the resources to do a D-Day style invasion in 44 like was OTL, they will continue to bomb and maintain naval dominance which ultimately will help Russia defeat Germany but mainland Europe is going to fall.

From France all the way to the Pacific Ocean the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic will become the largest empire ever seen on Earth controlling Europe, the Middle East, and their OTL holdings in Asia minus Japan's holdings.

Japan no longer distracted by America manages to conquer China, Manchuria, Korea, Vietnam, Burma, Indonesia and the islands at the height of the Empire of Japan. They avoid India and Australia. They sue for peace with Britain, and it is accepted. (They were already at peace with Russia).

Britain keeps its holdings in the Americas, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, India. Much of the Commonwealth though desires to be independent and with the threat of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic and Empire of Japan some like Australia could actually join the United States, this would be a peaceful transfer of power. To create a counterbalance to USSR, the USA probably seeks alliances and greater investments in Mexico, Central America and South America, it might even offer folks opportunities to join the United States, some will take and others will not.

No United Nations arises.
 
No oilboycott against japan will suffice i think.
It was the boycott that forced them eventually to act.
 
Here's a perfectly plausible reason for US to suspend embargo requiring no wierd or implausible human behavior.

Major earthquake and Tsunami in Japan equivalent to 1923 or that which occurred a few years ago. Major damage to harbors, shipbuilding, manufactiring, and other key industries/infrastructure. Reconstruction and disaster relief means Japan has to suspend offensives in China and (as diplomatic cover, at least temporarly) puts out feelers for a peace deal with Chiang. US suspends oil embargo for humanitarian reasons. Hawaii Operation and other attacks on US territory put on hold indefinitely.
 
Two challenges in one:
- Make a somewhat plausible (but - more importantly - especially orginal) timeline which makes a situation possible in which the US did not interfere in World War II and there would not be a Pacific theatre of the war.
- What would be the consequences of this? Fantasize and create a timeline that describes this alternate World War II and in particular the aftermath.

Go ahead and have fun :p!


The biggest problem would have been the president though, as FDR was clearly planning to get involved in the (European at the time) War, fearing the fall of the free democratic European states would be followed by a more agressive attitude of the Axis (and possibly the Communist - too) powers against the only remaining free (Western) state, the USA. The USA already were preparing for war as soon as 1938, even before the declaration of war by France and UK against Germany in september 1939. Keeping the UK fighting was the first priority of the USA foreign policy after the fall of France adn therefore the President used all his powers to supply the British with everything they basically needed. This normally would have been called contrabande, but in the US-UK case it was called Lend Lease deal.

As an alternative, the USA themeselves could not re-elect FDR and turn into isolation once more, simply ignoring the outside world and letting things go their way, including China. Therefore the Casus Belli for Japan did not arrise and the Pacific War did not realise. Isolated the USA is left alone by the fighting states, with this time a most likely Axis, or Communist victory, depending on who were in charge in the various fighting states. (refering to Hitler, possibly replaced by a millitary dictatiorship, who had more knowledge of how to use mlitary power in wartime.) The USSR might recover on her own, if the German leadership was to make the OTL mistakes, taking over the war and perhaps even winning the conflict. After this, the new non free world would dominate and dictate terms on whatever to come, with more might than the USA on her own. (The USA needed allies as jumingplatforms in oversea warfare.)
 
Cool replies, all!
However, I need to go to bed now; it's 22.43 here.
I'll read everything tomorrow and comment etc.
Thanks again! ;)
 
Actually, perhaps the US staying out of the European war is less plausible than the Asian one. With the escalating submarine warfare in the Atlantic, the US will be more roped in. Consider the reasons for the German declaration of war on the US. Was it simply solidarity with an ally? No, it should be thought of as exploiting a situation that is considered to inevitable anyway. And Operation Drumbeat can't be said to be anything but an astounding success. Perhaps, and please do state reasons for why you think this will not be the case, Germany will go ahead and do it anyway even without Pearl Harbor.

In contrast, if I understand it correctly, the logic of attacking Pearl Harbor could be changed. If the Soviets decide to expand the skirmishes in the Far East with Japan into a full-blown war, the Japanese will most likely suffer a humiliating defeat and will have to withdraw from the Asian mainland, meaning acquiring more resources for the Sino-Japanese war is no longer an issue.
 

JRScott

Banned
Actually, perhaps the US staying out of the European war is less plausible than the Asian one. With the escalating submarine warfare in the Atlantic, the US will be more roped in. Consider the reasons for the German declaration of war on the US. Was it simply solidarity with an ally? No, it should be thought of as exploiting a situation that is considered to inevitable anyway. And Operation Drumbeat can't be said to be anything but an astounding success. Perhaps, and please do state reasons for why you think this will not be the case, Germany will go ahead and do it anyway even without Pearl Harbor.

In contrast, if I understand it correctly, the logic of attacking Pearl Harbor could be changed. If the Soviets decide to expand the skirmishes in the Far East with Japan into a full-blown war, the Japanese will most likely suffer a humiliating defeat and will have to withdraw from the Asian mainland, meaning acquiring more resources for the Sino-Japanese war is no longer an issue.

Hitler wanted to honor his alliance with Japan but was angry at the Japanese sneak attack. He was furious. He knew FDR would emphasis the Europe war over the Pacific war and that meant he had to beat Russia before the Americans landed, and well you saw how well that went.

We did not declare war until they declared it on us, Hitler was well aware of lend-lease, but he did not want to risk war with the United States at the time. He preferred goal was to knock Russia out first then deal with Britain, because he was sure if he invaded England the United States would join the war. Thus having a secure western front was important before this happened.
 
I tend to start earlier...

A little more US losses in WWI (perhaps a more catastrophic one many dead and wounded) drive the US into even stronger isolationism and public opinion is "not again US blood for foreign wars"...

Anglo-Japanese relations stay strong - (no Washington naval treaty)

UK spending even more on ships and less on land and air...

(heavy toll on UK/US/Japanese economies)

Europe basically as OTL maybe UK even more lenient on Germany (France still dependent on UK support/UK-US relations more "cold") - attack on Poland does not trigger war as OTL - if Germany admits an independent Polish state (basically Korridor and Danzig to Germany)

No Molotov-Ribbentrop pact necessary, so no Soviet attacks on Poland/Finland/no Romanian cessations.

OOOPPPPS just butterflied WWII as we know it.

Expect by 1944 an German attack on SU which will play out differently (even different alliances maybe)
 
Actually, perhaps the US staying out of the European war is less plausible than the Asian one. With the escalating submarine warfare in the Atlantic, the US will be more roped in. Consider the reasons for the German declaration of war on the US. Was it simply solidarity with an ally? No, it should be thought of as exploiting a situation that is considered to inevitable anyway. And Operation Drumbeat can't be said to be anything but an astounding success. Perhaps, and please do state reasons for why you think this will not be the case, Germany will go ahead and do it anyway even without Pearl Harbor.

In contrast, if I understand it correctly, the logic of attacking Pearl Harbor could be changed. If the Soviets decide to expand the skirmishes in the Far East with Japan into a full-blown war, the Japanese will most likely suffer a humiliating defeat and will have to withdraw from the Asian mainland, meaning acquiring more resources for the Sino-Japanese war is no longer an issue.

True... good ideas... ;) I actually can understand your 'theory' quite well.

I tend to start earlier...

A little more US losses in WWI (perhaps a more catastrophic one many dead and wounded) drive the US into even stronger isolationism and public opinion is "not again US blood for foreign wars"...

Anglo-Japanese relations stay strong - (no Washington naval treaty)

UK spending even more on ships and less on land and air...

(heavy toll on UK/US/Japanese economies)

Europe basically as OTL maybe UK even more lenient on Germany (France still dependent on UK support/UK-US relations more "cold") - attack on Poland does not trigger war as OTL - if Germany admits an independent Polish state (basically Korridor and Danzig to Germany)

No Molotov-Ribbentrop pact necessary, so no Soviet attacks on Poland/Finland/no Romanian cessations.

OOOPPPPS just butterflied WWII as we know it.

Expect by 1944 an German attack on SU which will play out differently (even different alliances maybe)

But, this indeed might make it possible to have an alternate WWII, without US involvement, nor a Pacific theatre of the war. :cool:
 
... As an alternative, the USA themeselves could not re-elect FDR and turn into isolation once more, simply ignoring the outside world and letting things go their way, including China. Therefore the Casus Belli for Japan did not arrise and the Pacific War did not realise. Isolated the USA is left alone by the fighting states, with this time a most likely Axis, or Communist victory, depending on who were in charge in the various fighting states. (refering to Hitler, possibly replaced by a millitary dictatiorship, who had more knowledge of how to use mlitary power in wartime.) The USSR might recover on her own, if the German leadership was to make the OTL mistakes, taking over the war and perhaps even winning the conflict. After this, the new non free world would dominate and dictate terms on whatever to come, with more might than the USA on her own. (The USA needed allies as jumingplatforms in oversea warfare.)

Thanks, good possibility...!
 
Here's a perfectly plausible reason for US to suspend embargo requiring no wierd or implausible human behavior.

Major earthquake and Tsunami in Japan equivalent to 1923 or that which occurred a few years ago. Major damage to harbors, shipbuilding, manufactiring, and other key industries/infrastructure. Reconstruction and disaster relief means Japan has to suspend offensives in China and (as diplomatic cover, at least temporarly) puts out feelers for a peace deal with Chiang. US suspends oil embargo for humanitarian reasons. Hawaii Operation and other attacks on US territory put on hold indefinitely.

I can't say whether it's completely "perfectly plausible", but it indeed it is a very good option. :D
 
No oilboycott against japan will suffice i think.
It was the boycott that forced them eventually to act.

But won't something else replace that? I mean - even though many US civilians were like "well, I don't want my son to fight in Europe to solve a quarrel between France and Britain, and Germany", the US still were bond to Europe, economically as well as culturally. The US politicians, would they really 'let the British down'? Don't you need something 'worse' to prevent that some ruler thinks "oh, poor European kids, well, let's help them - it's such a pity to let the continent be devastated" or an arrogant president saying "it's not good for our own economy, so we'll need to help those supid Frogs and Tommies"?

Anyway, thanks for thinking along. :rolleyes::D
 
No Pearl Harbor

More isolationist politicians.

US pulled out of the Great Depression by manufacturing weapons and supplies for everyone.

Have the nazi's ideology turned down a notch.


Just a few ideas

I think your ideas are basically pretty good.
I think the last one is rather essential ;).
 
The only way to avoid a US entry into the war is to avoid attacking Pearl Harbor and the Philippines. If Japan had held out 2 more years Philippines should have been an independent state, making it easier to attack and not involve the USA.

The problem is Japan is low on Oil they can continue for about another year in offensive operations. That's enough time to take Indonesia, the US Congress will not approve a declaration of war over Indonesia. Indonesia's oil would give Japan the resources it needs.

Okay since Japan never attacks Pearl Harbor, the USA never declares war on Japan, Germany and Italy never declare war on the USA. The USA is at least for the foreseeable future out of the war. FDR would continue making preparations as he wants war. That probably means a modest ship building program, modest army and marine build up. He'd use the new assets to shore up Hawaii, Alaska, Philippines, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas. He would concentrate on preparing defenses in the Pacific, Caribbean and elsewhere. He would also establish US bases on the various British holdings including the allowed airbases acquired in the Destroyers for Bases deal in 1940. Lend-Lease will continue for Russia, France, Britain, and other allied nations (Turkey for example). If Japan invades an independent Philippines later in the war then lend-lease would be extended to the Philippines.

What happens in Europe. Mostly the war between Germany and Russia continue as OTL, Germany has early gains in 41 but the winter of 41 sees them lose ground. 42 sees another German offensive which like in 41 does not achieve its objectives, the Soviet war time economy has now outpaced Germany's. To put it plainly Germany is in deep doo doo. There will be no western democracies. Britain lacks the resources to do a D-Day style invasion in 44 like was OTL, they will continue to bomb and maintain naval dominance which ultimately will help Russia defeat Germany but mainland Europe is going to fall.

From France all the way to the Pacific Ocean the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic will become the largest empire ever seen on Earth controlling Europe, the Middle East, and their OTL holdings in Asia minus Japan's holdings.

Japan no longer distracted by America manages to conquer China, Manchuria, Korea, Vietnam, Burma, Indonesia and the islands at the height of the Empire of Japan. They avoid India and Australia. They sue for peace with Britain, and it is accepted. (They were already at peace with Russia).

Britain keeps its holdings in the Americas, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, India. Much of the Commonwealth though desires to be independent and with the threat of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic and Empire of Japan some like Australia could actually join the United States, this would be a peaceful transfer of power. To create a counterbalance to USSR, the USA probably seeks alliances and greater investments in Mexico, Central America and South America, it might even offer folks opportunities to join the United States, some will take and others will not.

No United Nations arises.

Amazing extensive reply! I in fact have nothing to comment on.
It's just... cool :cool:. Great!
 

Dirk_Pitt

Banned
Well there was a book called 1945, where the PoD was that Hitler was in a coma during Pearl Harbor due to a plane crash or something and a trirumvate took over decided not to declare war against the USA. The result was that the Pacific war lasted until 1943. Can't remember when the European war ended but definitely before 1945. England sued for peace and kicked Churchill out of power, though by the book's start he's back, which prompts an issue in Germany. Germany is making plans for an attack against America. The attack will focus on America's nuclear program. They're also making plans to invade England(yes Operation: Unmentionable Sea Mammal, though Germany's Airforce and navy is much stronger than in 1940).
 
Japan is bankrupt in 1942 and can no longer afford to purchase oil or iron from the United States so matters look bad for Tokyo...
 
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