The scenario was covered in one of my favorite alternate history youtubers named Zvallid. While he is italian and his english is not that great, he does a good job with research and crafting scenarios like this one.
The video is below:
So what to say? While the video was great, there are a few issues:
With the entry of the US into the war, the RN would be overstretched and pushed to its limit, trying to blockade both the United States and the North Sea, and defend many fronts at once. This will allow the Hochseeflotte to start sorties, potentially defeat and lift the blockade at a Second Battle of Jutland-style battle. The blockade could be broken, and allow Americans to send troops over to Europe. The Hochseeflotte could then even start a counter blockade of the British Isles. This would also cut the supply of Entente troops in France, further jeopardizing the war effort.
When Japanese and Australian forces invade the Philippines, guerrilla warfare would most certainly occur, and this would help bog down any advance in the Pacific and tie down Japanese and Australian troops
The biggest problem is the peace treaty. The peace treaty is much lighter than the Kaiser would ever want. The video presumes that Wilson would possess enough influence to enforce a mild peace that the Entente would most likely agree to, which he wouldn't. The Kaiser would insist upon weakening the Entente so that it could never challenge Germany again.
If we want a good picture of what would happen to France and the British in this scenario, we would get something much like the Septemberprogramme, the link is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Septemberprogramm
So what would a peace treaty look like in this US assisted CP victory? The Septemberprogramme, but much worse. Lets talk per country. The treaty is signed in Frankfurt in Mid 1918
German Demands:
Germany won the war at the horrific cost of 2 million men, due to this and following the pattern of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, a very harsh Treaty of Frankfurt is inevitable.
-Huge swaths of British and French colonies in Africa to create Mittelafrika in addition to French Indochina, Madagascar, and Morocco (Germany already had claims to Morocco thanks to the Agadir crisis and probably would enforce said claims. See Mittelafrika here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mittelafrika
-Annexation of French borderlands with areas of rich industrial activity.
-Annexation of Wallonia east of the River Meuse, and a Belgian protectorate. The protectorate gains a small strip of the French coast near Calais to give Germany access to the English Channel.
-Treaty of Brest-Litovsk to be upheld, and a potential intervention by all great powers to help the White Army.
-Surrender of the French and British fleets, supported by both the United States and the German Empire, but for two entirely different reasons. The US would support this due to enforcing freedom of the seas and to protect american neutrality, but the Germans would want this to ensure the supremacy of the Hochseeflotte. With the French and British armies on the verge of collapse and massive antiwar demonstrations following the failure of the 100 Days Offensive, there is little choice for the Entente but to adhere to the demands. They may be scuttled at Wilhelmshaven, home of the HSF. (IOTL the British scuttled the Hochseeflotte at Scapa Flow).
Austria Hungary Demands:
Treaty of Bucharest (Minor romanian border regions taken) and German lease to the Romanian oil fields until 2008 (90 years)
Installation of puppet regimes in the remainder of Serbia not annexed by Bulgaria, Montenegro, Albania, and probable annexation or satellite of Venetia.
Ottoman demands:
-Annexation of Kars and Batum Oblasts.
-Installation of puppet regimes in Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.
-Annexation of Kuwait, Dodecanese Islands, Crete, and a huge number of Aegean Islands.
-Return of Egypt, Sudan, Libya, and Cyprus as Ottoman clients. They may or may not possess enough power to demand this, you tell me in the comments section.
Bulgarian Demands:
-Annexation of eastern 2/3rds of Serbia (already did this when Serbia fell in 1915)
-Annexation of Southern Dobruja
United States Demands:
-Canadian provinces, including Newfoundland and Labrador, are integrated as US states, except Quebec which is released as an American puppet.
-Independence of Ireland
-Annexation of most British and French colonies in North America.
War reparations:
War reparations would most certainly take place.
-France pays 20 billion marks (in today's money, this is in the trillions) in war reparations to the Germans and admits to causing the war. Massive army, navy, and air force size reductions following this.
-Britain pays 1 billion dollars and 5 billion Marks to the United States and Germany, respectively, for the illegal blockade, in addition to navy size reductions (not as much as the French).
-Italy pays 10 billion Krones to Austria-Hungary (Krones is the currency for Austria-Hungary) though this may be more or less.
Aftermath:
Austria-Hungary and Ottoman Empire: Both collapse soon after the war. Austria could voluntarily join Germany in an Anschluss as many in Austria supported unifying with Germany.
Germany: Clear winner, but must deal with potential rebellions and unrest in new land gained, and is probably quite unstable.
United States: Big winner. Europe blew each other up to smithereens and greatly weakened itself in the process, making away for the United States to rise as an economic superpower. It is mostly stable with the exception of potential Canadian insurgents. American companies make big profits off of selling goods to Europe to rebuild it in a way much like the Dawes Plan (loaning to England and France to help them pay reparations).
England and France could fall under far right regimes, or potentially Communist/syndicalist ones. Quite unsure. Both countries are incredibly destabilized following the war.
US and German relations could sour thanks to them becoming economic rivals. World financial centers could be tipped between Berlin or New York City.
Most importantly, a certain failed Austrian painter might stay out of politics, or enter it with a certain party and only gain a couple percent of the vote (You know who I'm talking about).
What do you think? Could the US entering as a Central Power cause all of this to happen? Am I quite accurate in the very harsh treaties, or would the United States be able to demand a milder peace? What consequences of a potential victory would occur? Would a "Second Great War" occur? Let's argue peacefully in the comments section below.
DISCLAIMER: Please do not discuss anything but the entry of the US as a central power and its consequences. In my other threads people have been going of topic and discussing conspiracies and other things. I hate that I have to say this.
The video is below:
So what to say? While the video was great, there are a few issues:
With the entry of the US into the war, the RN would be overstretched and pushed to its limit, trying to blockade both the United States and the North Sea, and defend many fronts at once. This will allow the Hochseeflotte to start sorties, potentially defeat and lift the blockade at a Second Battle of Jutland-style battle. The blockade could be broken, and allow Americans to send troops over to Europe. The Hochseeflotte could then even start a counter blockade of the British Isles. This would also cut the supply of Entente troops in France, further jeopardizing the war effort.
When Japanese and Australian forces invade the Philippines, guerrilla warfare would most certainly occur, and this would help bog down any advance in the Pacific and tie down Japanese and Australian troops
The biggest problem is the peace treaty. The peace treaty is much lighter than the Kaiser would ever want. The video presumes that Wilson would possess enough influence to enforce a mild peace that the Entente would most likely agree to, which he wouldn't. The Kaiser would insist upon weakening the Entente so that it could never challenge Germany again.
If we want a good picture of what would happen to France and the British in this scenario, we would get something much like the Septemberprogramme, the link is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Septemberprogramm
So what would a peace treaty look like in this US assisted CP victory? The Septemberprogramme, but much worse. Lets talk per country. The treaty is signed in Frankfurt in Mid 1918
German Demands:
Germany won the war at the horrific cost of 2 million men, due to this and following the pattern of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, a very harsh Treaty of Frankfurt is inevitable.
-Huge swaths of British and French colonies in Africa to create Mittelafrika in addition to French Indochina, Madagascar, and Morocco (Germany already had claims to Morocco thanks to the Agadir crisis and probably would enforce said claims. See Mittelafrika here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mittelafrika
-Annexation of French borderlands with areas of rich industrial activity.
-Annexation of Wallonia east of the River Meuse, and a Belgian protectorate. The protectorate gains a small strip of the French coast near Calais to give Germany access to the English Channel.
-Treaty of Brest-Litovsk to be upheld, and a potential intervention by all great powers to help the White Army.
-Surrender of the French and British fleets, supported by both the United States and the German Empire, but for two entirely different reasons. The US would support this due to enforcing freedom of the seas and to protect american neutrality, but the Germans would want this to ensure the supremacy of the Hochseeflotte. With the French and British armies on the verge of collapse and massive antiwar demonstrations following the failure of the 100 Days Offensive, there is little choice for the Entente but to adhere to the demands. They may be scuttled at Wilhelmshaven, home of the HSF. (IOTL the British scuttled the Hochseeflotte at Scapa Flow).
Austria Hungary Demands:
Treaty of Bucharest (Minor romanian border regions taken) and German lease to the Romanian oil fields until 2008 (90 years)
Installation of puppet regimes in the remainder of Serbia not annexed by Bulgaria, Montenegro, Albania, and probable annexation or satellite of Venetia.
Ottoman demands:
-Annexation of Kars and Batum Oblasts.
-Installation of puppet regimes in Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.
-Annexation of Kuwait, Dodecanese Islands, Crete, and a huge number of Aegean Islands.
-Return of Egypt, Sudan, Libya, and Cyprus as Ottoman clients. They may or may not possess enough power to demand this, you tell me in the comments section.
Bulgarian Demands:
-Annexation of eastern 2/3rds of Serbia (already did this when Serbia fell in 1915)
-Annexation of Southern Dobruja
United States Demands:
-Canadian provinces, including Newfoundland and Labrador, are integrated as US states, except Quebec which is released as an American puppet.
-Independence of Ireland
-Annexation of most British and French colonies in North America.
War reparations:
War reparations would most certainly take place.
-France pays 20 billion marks (in today's money, this is in the trillions) in war reparations to the Germans and admits to causing the war. Massive army, navy, and air force size reductions following this.
-Britain pays 1 billion dollars and 5 billion Marks to the United States and Germany, respectively, for the illegal blockade, in addition to navy size reductions (not as much as the French).
-Italy pays 10 billion Krones to Austria-Hungary (Krones is the currency for Austria-Hungary) though this may be more or less.
Aftermath:
Austria-Hungary and Ottoman Empire: Both collapse soon after the war. Austria could voluntarily join Germany in an Anschluss as many in Austria supported unifying with Germany.
Germany: Clear winner, but must deal with potential rebellions and unrest in new land gained, and is probably quite unstable.
United States: Big winner. Europe blew each other up to smithereens and greatly weakened itself in the process, making away for the United States to rise as an economic superpower. It is mostly stable with the exception of potential Canadian insurgents. American companies make big profits off of selling goods to Europe to rebuild it in a way much like the Dawes Plan (loaning to England and France to help them pay reparations).
England and France could fall under far right regimes, or potentially Communist/syndicalist ones. Quite unsure. Both countries are incredibly destabilized following the war.
US and German relations could sour thanks to them becoming economic rivals. World financial centers could be tipped between Berlin or New York City.
Most importantly, a certain failed Austrian painter might stay out of politics, or enter it with a certain party and only gain a couple percent of the vote (You know who I'm talking about).
What do you think? Could the US entering as a Central Power cause all of this to happen? Am I quite accurate in the very harsh treaties, or would the United States be able to demand a milder peace? What consequences of a potential victory would occur? Would a "Second Great War" occur? Let's argue peacefully in the comments section below.
DISCLAIMER: Please do not discuss anything but the entry of the US as a central power and its consequences. In my other threads people have been going of topic and discussing conspiracies and other things. I hate that I have to say this.