Herein Lies a Proposal for Alternate Applications of the So-Named Butterfly Effect in Depicting Post-Point-of-Divergence Historical Figures, Drawing in Perspective from Studies of the Biological Sciences.
Part 1: Name your terms.
by Matt Perry
I first heard about the butterfly effect watching Jurassic Park. It did not, however, give an explanation that was sufficient to instruct a nine year old in the complexities of the concept, even after a fifth theater viewing. Although I gradually gained hints as to the term's significance by the usual cultural osmosis, it was only the discovery of this site's predecessor in 2003 that truly acquainted me with it. As I've gone through three complete cycles of contribution followed by lurking, I've watched the concept's use by board members mature and develop. Simultaneously, my own understanding of the term has changed dramatically. I want to introduce a concept I've had for some time in using "short-term" butterflies: The Three-Quarter Cross.
A note on background ought to precede things. The butterfly effect is a mathematical concept (specifically relating to statistics) that assumes some systems are "chaotic." A chaotic system is one for which exact outcomes can not, by their nature, be predicted. The hypothesis states that an action taking place in a chaotic system will affect the outcome. Not that it will make impossible outcomes possible (rolling a 7 on a die), but it will affect it. A literal interpretation of the butterfly effect would then become utterly impractical for alternate histories. The outcome of every minor weather pattern, game of chance, stock market, and sex act would have to be revised.
You'll note above that I use the word hypothesis to describe the butterfly effect. As a tendency that can only be proved or disproved mathematically, the BE is, scientifically speaking, no more testable than the existence of a deity. While it certainly makes a degree of sense, in the end, there are valid reasons for compromising with its statements.
And that is just what we do. The actual butterfly effect as it is officially defined is almost entirely rejected by the members of this board, including some who seem to believe that they are scrupulously abiding by it. This is okay. As mentioned above, it would be impractical to apply universally. Instead we apply alternate definitions particular to this forum or simply constrain its use in the interests of narrative practicality. Both tropes are largely justifiable, and I do not condemn them, but we would be well served by their analysis.
The term butterfly effect can indicate (on this forum) [1] all consequences following from the original Point of Divergence, [2] a justification for multiple PoD's, or [3] a convenient magic wand to excuse unlikely turns of events. The first are generally accepted, while the third is typically ignored or derided.