Alternate Greece Question

JJohnson

Banned
I have a question regarding Greece, and it might need roots pre-1900 to get it done. My question is, which changes would need to take place so that 2012 Greece does not have the fiscal mess it's in now, and is roughly fiscally conservative? By that, I mean that they are not facing a debt crisis, and they keep budget deficits of less than 5-10% over the majority of the 20th century, and may have had some surplus years.

I'm looking for anything post 1800 preferably.

I think I saw a timeline on this somewhere where the dodecanese or something else led to the formation of the Greek Republic, but I can't find that timeline here. The second question is, would there be any difference if this Greece held Constantinople, and the Aegean coastline of OTL Turkey? (I don't think it would, but might be something of a prestige thing).
 
One of my professors, himself a Greek, argued to us once that it was the conquest of the Byzantine successor states by the Turks, and then the experience of living for centuries under a foreign power that bred into the Greek people a widespread suspicion of the government, and made cheating your taxes and so on a badge of honour in Greek society. Now, I'm not sure exactly how true that is, but I'm more inclined to trust it coming from a Greek individual than I am an outsider- note that I've heard similar arguments made by Greeks elsewhere.
 
More territory is, imo, likely to hinder the problem rather than help.

Somewhere, somehow, you have to get rid of the idea that taxes can be avoided.

How, i dont know. But something like half the economy is underground, and not taxed.
 
More territory is, imo, likely to hinder the problem rather than help.

Somewhere, somehow, you have to get rid of the idea that taxes can be avoided.

How, i dont know. But something like half the economy is underground, and not taxed.

Well, making people pay taxes is a no-brainer regardless of territory they hold. Also depends on what the territory has in terms of resources.

On a separate note, if they did hold Constantinople, can they put a tariff/toll on the city, crossing into the Black and Aegan Sea and Asia and Europe?
 

PhilippeO

Banned
They never join the euro ? if greece did not join the euro, their deficit will led to devaluation of Drachma, so deficit will be kept low to maintain drachma value.


More interesting scenario will be Greek Orthodox Church stronger participation in Independence from Ottoman, leading to all school and hospital owned by church. Greeks will have to pay tithe instead of taxes.
 
I have a question regarding Greece, and it might need roots pre-1900 to get it done. My question is, which changes would need to take place so that 2012 Greece does not have the fiscal mess it's in now, and is roughly fiscally conservative? By that, I mean that they are not facing a debt crisis, and they keep budget deficits of less than 5-10% over the majority of the 20th century, and may have had some surplus years.

I'm looking for anything post 1800 preferably.

I think I saw a timeline on this somewhere where the dodecanese or something else led to the formation of the Greek Republic, but I can't find that timeline here. The second question is, would there be any difference if this Greece held Constantinople, and the Aegean coastline of OTL Turkey? (I don't think it would, but might be something of a prestige thing).

There are many ways to do this, and most of them are either pre-1821 (beginning of war of independence) or post-1909 (Goudi coup). It depends on what other characteristics you want Greece to have. For example, if you want it to have Constantinople and the Aegean coastline in Minor Asia, that would have major reprecussions for pretty much everything. It seems to me, however, that this would create a bigger economic mess as organising and effectively governing such large areas and populations will drain lots of cash.

For the post-1909 POD, you most certainly need a Venizelos win in the 1920 election (probably have him change the electoral law that would give him a majority of seats since he did get the majority of votes). He is very good with economics and is a moderniser of the state and the economy. He could get a negotiation for keeping Eastern Thrace; Constantinople and Minor Asia are very difficult to be incorporated in the Greek State. You must get the Greeks of Minor Asia to immigrate to Greece as IOTL (population transfers), because that contributed a lot to the urbanisation of Greece and the successful completion of land reform. That is easy and very possible until now. You now have economic and mostly political stability, instead of IOTL Minor Asia Disaster and great instability in the 20s with coups and counter-coups.

Venizelos wanted to keep the monarchy, but amend the constitution after the 1920 election so as to limit the powers of the king and that will avoid huge OTL problems in the future (50s-60s OTL).

He will also create the Council of State and the Bank of Greece in the late 20s (OTL), which will do a lot to modernise the country as well.

now, you have to manage the Great Depression in a satisfactory way. That can go as IOTL, the government did the best it could there.

Then, you have to avoid the German occupation and Civil War at all costs, they devastated the country's economy in a very major way. Either somehow avoid getting in the war (can't see an obvious way to do that) or withdraw from Northern Epirus and most of Northern Greece to create an effective defensive line, maybe coupling it with a little more Commonwealth help if possible. Hitler won't throw much more forces in Greece, as he definetely wants to attack the USSR in 1941 and will keep as many forces in the East as possible, therefore creating a stalemate in the Greek mountains. 1943-1944 comes, Northern Greece gets liberated, Greece is awarded Dodecanese (OTL) and Northern Epirus and is in much better shape.

From there, it can get anywhere you want.
 
Here's my attempt.

Instead of defaulting on its loans and attacking the Ottomans 1897, the Greeks stay put, lower military expenditure and pay off some of their loans. The Greeks never defaulting on their loans in modern times should make their credit value better, and thus interests lower.

The Greeks still get Crete by international settlement.

Venizelos defies the King and refuses to resign in 1915, instead all of Greece joins the Entente 1915 - the Ottomans and Bulgarians fall a few months earlier 1918, and Greece is rewarded with Cyprus (but with British basing rights), northern Epirus (southern Albania) with substantial interests in the rest of Albania, Bulgarian Thrace (as IOTL), Turkish Thrace (as IOTL), the straits (but demilitarised) and Ionia (as IOTL). Population transfer (in reality, ethnic cleansing) happens on both sides and a lot of Greeks, Pontic Greeks and Armenians as well as other christians in the former Ottoman Empire now controlled by the Turkish Republic ands up in Greece.

Also, Wrangel's fleet with the refugee White Russians from Ukraine and Crimea stays in Greek constantinople. Greece is, due to religious similarity, proximity to Russia and land for sale from the state (seized from Turks) the favoured place to settle for White Russians fleeing the revolution.

Greece is a staunch ally of Britain and France, especially as Alexander (who has ruled since 1915, when King Constantine abdicated in the conflict with Venizelos) does not die from being bitten by a monkey and recieves military and economic aid. Venizelos reforms the election laws and continue to rule, weeding out corruption and setting up a small welfare state along Bismarckian lines.

The British transfer the two battleships Reshadieh/HMS Erin and Sultan Osman I/HMS Agincourt and the White Russian fleet transfer most of its vessels, including the battleship Alexander III/Volya/General Alexeiev.

The Turks refuse the treaty, but the Greeks also only occupy the terrain they have taken. After a few years an uneasy truce develops, while France and Italy abandon their influence zones soon - the Greeks offer to take over those zones, but only takes small parts of the Italian zone north and south of their Ioannia enclave, and leaves the rest to the Turks, adding to the Turkish reluctance to attack.

British, White Russian and French investment in the Greek economy during the inter-war era, the rather rural status of the Greek economy and careful husbanding of resources lets Venizelos see Greece through the depression comparatibly well.

When ww2 rolls around, the Greeks declare neutrality. At the same time, they work hard to improve relations with the Turks, giving back a little territory and doing more (this time peaceful) population transfers. While parts of Greek society wants to join the allies, especially after the Italian takeover of Albania and entrance into war, cooler voices prevail. Especially the White Russian comminuty is anti-communist and many volunteer for the SS, while Britain retains basing rights on Crete and Cyprus, but not rights to over-fly mainland Greece.

Mussoline does not attack Greece, as Greece looks strong on paper with 3 battleships, 2 light cruisers, 1 armoured cruiser, a small airforce and a large army which they can concentrate in the west against Albania. The Germans also wants to avoid fighting in the Balkans, and Hitler informs Mussolini of German troops entering Romania. Churchill wants to get Greece into the fighting, but the Greeks push back and Greece rather successfully plays both sides, trading with both and purchasing arms. With the demilitarised straits, the British can send ship-borne aid to the Soviets (which are attacked a bit earlier, due to no Balkan front) through the Black Sea, although German and Romanian light vessels contest this trade, and the railroad through Persia quickly becomes more important as a life-line.

WW2 ends pretty much on schedule, with Greece and Yugoslavia untouched (a attempted coup and following guerilla warfare by Croatian nationalists having been crushed by the Yugoslav army). Greece takes in a lot of Polish refugees (both AK and Polish Army in the West) and anti-communist Bulgarians and Romanians (who often are their country's respective elite, that bring as much resources they can with them). Greece continues to be a fairly stable democracy, with a decent economy and a tradition of decent budget handling since 1920 or so.

With marshal aid, entering NATO and lessening military expenditure, no Junta and revolution, no civil war, no occupation, no war for Cyprus and less to prove against the Turks, the Greek economy does much better. Greece as a tourist attraction develops earlier due to the better infrastructure, economy, safety and democracy and while Greek food cannot completely rival Italian as delicacies all over the world, it is still a strong contender.

Greek industry excel in shipbuilding and shipping, with Greek engineers sought after when it comes to construction of infrastructure in mountainous terrain and innovative road-to-ship and railroad-to-ship roll on-roll off solutions. Greek cheese and bread as well as cured lamb's meat are considered delicacies. Greek arms, especially in the areas of speedboats, torpedo and landing crafts and littoral warfare are highly regarded, with the US Marines as one user (through licensing to an American company, of course). Food processon, fishing, porcelain industry, wool and textiles are also notable Greek industries.

in 2012, the Greek industry suffers from competition from southeast Asia and the recent downturn has hit the economy hard - but the Greeks have a solid and decently funded education system and is making good inroads towards turning from an industrial economy to a post-industrial, service based economy, with the IT sector going well.
 
One of my professors, himself a Greek, argued to us once that it was the conquest of the Byzantine successor states by the Turks, and then the experience of living for centuries under a foreign power that bred into the Greek people a widespread suspicion of the government, and made cheating your taxes and so on a badge of honour in Greek society. Now, I'm not sure exactly how true that is, but I'm more inclined to trust it coming from a Greek individual than I am an outsider- note that I've heard similar arguments made by Greeks elsewhere.

Pretty common theory actually. The same is said about southern Italy.
 
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