Alternate Great Powers and Superpowers (Post 1815)

Delta Force

Banned
In 1815, the sole superpower was the British Empire, while Austria, France, Prussia, and Imperial Russia were great powers. Qing China was considered a great power by some, and the Ottoman Empire was still powerful, but in a state of decline. With a PoD after the 1815 Congress of Vienna, what nations had the potential to become great powers and/or superpowers, or to retain their status as such?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Before 1900?

In 1815, the sole superpower was the British Empire, while Austria, France, Prussia, and Imperial Russia were great powers. Qing China was considered a great power by some, and the Ottoman Empire was still powerful, but in a state of decline. With a PoD after the 1815 Congress of Vienna, what nations had the potential to become great powers and/or superpowers, or to retain their status as such?


Before 1900?

Economically, by 1900, relative shares of world manufacturing output (from Bairoch vis Kennedy) the split was:

US - 23.6 percent
UK - 18.5
GE - 13.2
RE - 8.8
FR - 6.8
AE - 4.7
IT - 2.5
JE - 2.4

In 1830 (same source, closest date to general industrialization) the same percentages were:

UK - 9.5
RE - 5.6
FR - 5.2
GE - 3.5
AE - 3.2
US - 2.4
IT - 2.3

Obviously, population and geographic growth in the US fed industrialization, and vice-versa, but with the US as the outlier, the relative decline of Russia and the rise of a unified Germany in Europe is pretty significant. France, which was third in the West in 1830, made it to second by 1860, but was rapidly eclipsed by the US and then Russia. Austria and Italy (even after unification) had not moved much in a relative sense. Japan was not even on the board as industrializing, manufacturing power in 1830, of course.

So, realistically, it is the US and UK, followed by (in some order) Germany, Russia, and France, depending upon events between 1815 and 1900.

Does give one an idea of where a western/continental Europe united by (say) a stable "Napoleonic" figure could have ranked by the end of the century...all else being equal, of course.

Best,
 
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