Alternate Fall Blau

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Deleted member 1487

What if the 1942 summer campaign in the Caucaus was changed to go for different aims? Naturally the goal in OTL was the oil at Baku, but what if the Germans instead sought to encircle and destroy Russian armies? Would a campaign of mobile attrition at this point in the war have caused a Soviet collapse?
 
The Germans did seek to encircle, but the Russians unlike before were not standing-fast - there were streaming east. Perhaps the Russians were forewarned of what German intentions were, they therefore fought a fighting withdrawal. When the German 'pincers' closed in there was nothing caught in 'the bag'.
The campaign was further complicated by Hitler's change of emphasis.

The Baku objective was just too ambitious in distance, and even if you get there - then what - how do you get the oil to where you need it.

No, IMO it should have been from the Crimea to Maykop (oilfield) and perhaps to Terek (oilfield), therefore controlling the Black Sea. But the main focus would be an encirclement from Rostov and Voronezh to meet to the east of Stalingrad! Perhaps the crossing of the Volga could have been achieved higher up, but with the City surrounded - more chance of success rather than battling through it.
From there down the river to Astrakhan
 
The Germans did seek to encircle, but the Russians unlike before were not standing-fast - there were streaming east. Perhaps the Russians were forewarned of what German intentions were, they therefore fought a fighting withdrawal. When the German 'pincers' closed in there was nothing caught in 'the bag'.

Actually, Russian resistance collapsed after being confronted by yet another German summer offensive. Instead of fighting or even performing a fighting withdrawal, they just ran away. Naturally, this proved the best antidote to encirclement :).

However, the situation of Russians running away instead of dying for Stalin so worried Stalin and his cronies that they issued the notorious "no step back" order and ordered the NKVD to use drastic measures to get the Red Army to fight again.

This relatively short period of utter panic was what the Germans had expected when they invaded in 1941.
 
Maybe the germans should have tried a Moscow second run. Moscow was closer to their lines, and also Stalin would have been forced to commit his forces early in order to defend the city. So the germans could have encircled and destroy huge numbers of soviets as in the year before. Of course the soviets could have resisted even after that, but they did so anyway in OTL and the germans not only gained nothing, but lost an army. To sum up, instead of going far into enemy land, the germans could have forced a decisive battle near their own lines.
 
Another stab at Moscow was indeed what the German High Command was suggesting to Hitler in early 1942 and this was what all military experts believed would happen. Naturally, Stalin had the bulk of his forces arrayed before Moscow to prevent the loss of this vital administrative and logistics hub.

Hitler decided otherwise, based on flawed economic beliefs. He believed Germany needed the resources located in the south and the oil in the Caucasus or the German war machine would grind to a halt. As it was, Germany was able to continue for 3 more years without those resources....

Meanwhile, the Russians were taken by complete surprise when the Germans launched their main offensive in the south while on the German side, many front-line generals actually believed Germany lacked the strength to capture Moscow in 1942 and were happy enough to see the main effort aimed at a different part of the front.
 
Well, since we're talking alternate Fall Blau:
**Do note, if anyone would have proposed this to Hitler, he probably would have been shot on the spot**
How about an offensive aimed at establishing a strong defensive barrier on the Don riverline?
From Rostov, all the way north to Voronezh, then north-west through Livny, to anchor on the existing German lines at Orel.
There is great potential here for a defense in depth. Alternate defenses could be dug at the Donetz, as fall-back positions.

From a line along the Don River, the Germans would be threatening Stalingrad, and thanks to their earlier conquests, they're still threatening Moscow and Leningrad as well (then again, maybe Leningrad could be taken in 1942).
Let the Soviet winter offensive come, and then go for a final offensive in 1943, where-ever you like.
 
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