Alternate Expeditions of Hideoyoshi

In OTL, Shogun Toyotomi Hideyoshi launched two invasions of Korea in 1592 and 1597, sparking off the Imjin Wars which both ended in the intervention of the Ming Dynasty on behalf of Joseon and Japanese withdrawal from the peninsula. On hindsight, his goal of conquering China via Korea looks downright insane, given the disparity of their strength at the time. But he did set other, more realistic targets at the time, such as the Ryukyus, Luzon and Taiwan.

The question is, what if he had organized an expedition elsewhere, instead of Korea. How successful or dismal it would it have ended and what would be the effect of his invasion in the East Asian region. Besides the ones listed above, are there any other areas of expansion he could have taken, such as Hokkaido?

As far as I can tell, any invasion that attracts the attention of a larger power would not end well. The Ming would certainly resist an outright invasion of the Ryukyus (just as they did in Korea), though I'm not too sure about Taiwan, being mostly inhabited by aboriginals and malaria-carrying mozzies. Luzon is probably out too, being a Spanish possession. Hokkaido seems like the best possible target, though that would depend on how well or badly the Ainu could hold them off. Overall, Hideyoshi didn't have that many options to play with, given the limits of his naval reach and certainly with other, greater powers around.
 
Taiwan or Ryukyu

I was thinking about this in regards to Taiwan. The logistical problem is certainly one to consider, although it would be thirty years ahead of the Dutch arrival and perhaps European cargo ships could be used to 'inspire' local designs as they did with Red Seal Ships. An invasion of the Ryukyu Islands is plausible as well, perhaps as a prerequisite, and this might expand trade or lead to other interventions in the years to come.
 
Hokkaido (and Karafuto beyond) would be logical, since it would open up new land for his supporters. The Ainu would be pacified given enough time.

Japan might get away with taking the Ryukyus without too big of a fight from China. Taking Taiwan would probably invite continual wars until Japan left. That's not even getting into the Aboriginal issue, which would limit Japan to the coastal regions for a good while. Probably not the best idea, but it could benefit Japan in the long run by opening new land and encouraging continual openness to some extent to make sure the military stays modernised enough to counter China. Could spark an East Asian arms race, but could also lead to ruin for both countries (most likely from within).
 
Hokkaido is useless. The Japanese know that the Ainu can be absolutely conquered by economic means, as the Matsumae clan ably displayed. The deprivation of trade was the major factor that forced the great Ainu chieftain Shakushain to surrender during his war, for example. Also Hokkaido is...not very rich at all, and its natural resources best exploited by Ainu.

Ryukyus is more plausible - especially as Hideyoshi apparently viewed them as a Japanese vassal - and I don't think the Chinese would act to save it. Korea's fall actually threatened China, unlike Ryukyu; Liaodong provided something during the Korean War that no part of China would during a Ryukyuan War. China's tributary system wasn't something like NATO. China also won't go to war for Taiwan, which is seen as 海外 and not Chinese. The Japanese conquest of Taiwan wouldn't be that hard if the shogun really wants to.

The 200,000 soldiers that invaded Korea would be unnecessary for any invasion of Ryukyu/Taiwan. 10,000 men is more than sufficient.
 
Taiwan, Ryukyu, Hokkaido

Taiwan is not going to be a simple conquest, there were aboriginal kingdoms there and the island is not that small. Also, you need a garrison to govern the islands. I think that avoiding the Imjin Wars permits this, though Korea might grow stronger and the Ming harder to replace as a result. It also potentially puts the Phillipines with reach of easier Japanese influence, perhaps even eventual conquest.
 
The Spanish in Manila were apparently scared shitless by the possibility, then regarded as realistic, of Japanese invasion. It seems to me that they had little means to resist a determined Japanese attack, or at least so they felt.
 
Taiwan is not going to be a simple conquest, there were aboriginal kingdoms there and the island is not that small. Also, you need a garrison to govern the islands. I think that avoiding the Imjin Wars permits this, though Korea might grow stronger and the Ming harder to replace as a result. It also potentially puts the Phillipines with reach of easier Japanese influence, perhaps even eventual conquest.

Koxinga's heirs basically subdued the Iceland on a shoe string budget, right?
 
I posted this like a year ago... I didn't think I'd get responses. Thank anyway.

As for options, yeah, Hokkaido doesn't have jack to speak of. Taiwan and Ryukyus, however, does, and with a better possibility of success. The only issue is not getting on China's bad boi list. Don't think the Chinese would act on such naval invasions though. The only concern is Hideyoshi going for China next, as he intended in OTL.
 
The Spanish in Manila were apparently scared shitless by the possibility, then regarded as realistic, of Japanese invasion. It seems to me that they had little means to resist a determined Japanese attack, or at least so they felt.

They were scared of Koxinga invading too, but both he and Hideyoshi died before they could do anything about it. Both of them thought anything south of Guangdong wasn't worth taking anyway too.
 
Hideyoshi is not gonna invade anywhere else. Korea was invaded just because they wouldn't let Hideyoshi invade China at least supposedly through Korea. Hideyoshi wasn't the Shogun because he was only a peasant in lineage, and he could only be Kampaku or regent. Well the whole invasion was either the harebrained scheme of Nobunaga Oda or Hideyoshi's own harebrained scheme to secure legitimacy.
 
The Spanish in Manila were apparently scared shitless by the possibility, then regarded as realistic, of Japanese invasion. It seems to me that they had little means to resist a determined Japanese attack, or at least so they felt.

The spanish only controlled the coasts of Luzon at that point.
 
The Spanish in Manila were apparently scared shitless by the possibility, then regarded as realistic, of Japanese invasion. It seems to me that they had little means to resist a determined Japanese attack, or at least so they felt.

Makes sense. The Spanish presence would have been fairly thinly-spread, and the Japanese were right there. If the Japanese had landed a force comparable to the Korean invasion, they could have quickly overwhelmed a Spanish defence...and then, assuming the Spanish even tried to take it back*, they'd have had a long time to fort up before any Spanish forces made it to Asia.

Actually, thinking about it, if this had happened, we'd probably have ended up with Luzon becoming a permanent part of Japan. From what I've read, the native population was fairly low anyway, and if the Japanese had divided it up into feudal domains and moved peasants and merchants across...odds are that the population would have ended up majority Japanese, like Hokkaido.

I doubt they'd have enjoyed the same success further south, though. More likely that the Moro rulers would have become vassals, at least on paper.

*While the Spanish didn't suffer territorial loss lightly, I imagine that at the time in question they may have had issues closer to home...:rolleyes:
 
Makes sense. The Spanish presence would have been fairly thinly-spread, and the Japanese were right there. If the Japanese had landed a force comparable to the Korean invasion, they could have quickly overwhelmed a Spanish defence...and then, assuming the Spanish even tried to take it back*, they'd have had a long time to fort up before any Spanish forces made it to Asia.

Actually, thinking about it, if this had happened, we'd probably have ended up with Luzon becoming a permanent part of Japan. From what I've read, the native population was fairly low anyway, and if the Japanese had divided it up into feudal domains and moved peasants and merchants across...odds are that the population would have ended up majority Japanese, like Hokkaido.

I doubt they'd have enjoyed the same success further south, though. More likely that the Moro rulers would have become vassals, at least on paper.

*While the Spanish didn't suffer territorial loss lightly, I imagine that at the time in question they may have had issues closer to home...:rolleyes:

There's little attraction to the place without Manila harboring ships to and from Acapulco and China, though.
 
What if Hideyoshi settled for a smaller prize, let's say a third or a quarter of Korea? He could settle his restless soldiers there, build up men and resources for more future conquests, and harvest glory and success.

Maybe the Koreans might be willing to negotiate while they are panicking. And a settled logistical base in Korea would provide him with support for future conquests, and indirectly could help his heir to maintain his power in Japan.

It certainly wasn't the prize he wanted - conquering Ming China - and certainly the Koreans could well try and kick him out, but what if he decided to go for something realistic when he figures out his original plan is unworkable?
 
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