1972 US election
President Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew-Republican: 482 EV 54.67%
Hubert Humphrey/Henry M Jackson-Democratic: 56 EV 43.02%
Why does Nixon get over 60% of the vote in Texas, Arkansas and Georgia?
Alternate Electoral Maps
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Why does Nixon get over 60% of the vote in Texas, Arkansas and Georgia?
Nixon got over 70% in many of those states IOTL and the Nixon plus Wallace vote in many Southern states exceeds 60%. In Tennessee for example it adds up to 71%, in Texas it adds up to 58.9%, in Arkansas it was 69.66%, in Georgia it was 73.23%. Few Wallace voters, if any, would have voted for Humphrey. In Texas the number is probably higher because in 1972 Humphrey would lack the support of LBJ and his machine. Plus in 1972 Nixon is more popular and does better nationwide, so that increases his numbers in the South further.
Governor George Romney (R-MI)/ Senator Jacob K. Javits (R-NY)- 270 Electoral Votes
Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Senator George McGovern (D-SD)- 202 Electoral Votes
Fmr. Governor George Wallace (AI-AL)/General Curtis LeMay (AI-OH)- 66 Electoral Votes
1968 Presidential Election (Part 2 of my Kennedy lives series of maps)
Following JFK's landslide reelection against Barry Goldwater, Kennedy went into his a second term with a solid mandate and an ambitious plan for the next 4 years. After 4 years the most notable aspects of Kennedy's adminstration would be an extensive lowering of US involvement in Vietnam, to the point that South Vietnam was practically on it's own, and the passage of the Civil Rights Act, after an extensive amount of congressional arm twisting and negotiating led by VP LBG.
When it came time to choose a nominee, the main competitors for the nomination were former Vice President Richard Nixon and Michigan governor George Romney. Other notable candidates were conservative Ronald Reagan and Rockefeller Republican, Nelson Rockefeller. Romney was able to eventually triumph over Nixon for one simple reason; Vietnam. The Republican base was furious over Kennedy's pulling out from Vietnam and highly critical of what they perceived as weakness against communism abroad. Romney has a clear pro intervention position while Nixon waffled on the issue. Nixon spoke about the need for fighting communism around the globe but also made vague nations of a "peace with honor". Romney choose liberal Republican Jacob K. Javits as his running mate.
The Democratic primary was completely opposite to the Republican as most supported pulling out off Vietnam or continuing the minor participation of the Kennedy adminstration. That was the reason Vice President Johnson lost, his views on Vietnam were not compatible with the primary Democratic view of the time. The two main competitors of the Democratic primary were the moderate Hubert Humphrey and the more liberal Eugene McCarthy. McCarthy did well but eventually lost to Humphrey who choose McGovern as his running mate as an olive branch to liberals.
The general election effectively became a referendum on foreign policy, particularly the Kennedy administration's policy in Vietnam. Romney and the Republicans attacked Kennedy and Humphrey by association as being weak on foreign policy. Democrats were painted as contributing to the rise of Communism and losing the Cold War, with Vietnam being cited as an example. Humphrey did the best he could to defend Kennedy and his own record, stating that Vietnam was a losing venture and intervention would be delaying the inevitable defeat. However this defense did not play well with the public, as it painted America as weak and opened Humphrey to calls off being unpatriotic.
However while the two large parties focused on the foreign aspects of Kennedy's adminstration, his domestic policy allowed for the rise of Wallace in the South. Both Humphrey and Romney supported the Civil Rights Act and were socially moderate or liberal. This allowed George Wallace to gain popularity in the South especially among whites.
In the end, Romney just barely won the electoral and popular vote. Both major parties managed to lose many southern voters to Wallace, who managed a decent showing. Romney secured his small victory by adopting what would later come to be called the Midwestern strategy. He focused on states like Illinois, Ohio, and his own home state of Michigan.
[Is about to bitch about the caucuses making primary results skewed]
[Decides against because South Dakota was finally fixed]
Clinton does very slightly better in 1992. I'm working on a county map for this as well.
I gave Clinton every county that Bush won with >30% of the vote, as well as 5 extra counties in North Carolina just for fun. Perot still wins all 15 counties that he won IOTL. Note that Morris, Kansas was tied between Perot and Bush but I colored it green for Perot, while Echols, Georgia was tied between Bush and Clinton but I colored it blue for Clinton.
fashbasher
Banned
Not really an alternate electoral map so much as an alternate referendum map:
Queen Elizabeth II dies in 2013. Scotland narrowly votes Yes to independence after Prince Charles, the Duke of Windsor (he passes on the throne to focus on the Prince's Trust and Prince's Foundation) says "while it would be sad for Scotland to leave, we would gladly welcome another Commonwealth realm into the family", with the "we" implicitly including King William. Support skyrockets for independence in Wales and Northern Ireland, as well as in the Channel Islands, with the knowledge that they can stay as Commonwealth realms. The Brexit referendum occurs before Scotland's departure is final, and Scots are still able to vote in it. Controversially, they swing the result from Leave to Remain after King William obliquely praises them for maintaining "Peace in Europe". That swing forces a second pair of referendums in December 2017 at several English activists' behest to fully devolve the UK into a set of four independent realms with the ability to set their own EU policy as well as freedom of citizenship (similar to that between the UK and Ireland for Northern Irish people). That referendum passes in each realm, although narrowly in England because of elderly voters fearing that it will "diminish the stature of the UK." A second referendum, to rotate the UN Security Council seat among the four nations of the UK, also passes, by lopsided margins in the smaller nations; the crown dependencies reject it as they are not allowed a chance to retain the seat.
This is never going to happen, But...
Joe Manchin/John Bell Edwards 306 EV ~ 52% PV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 232 EV ~ 48% PV
Joe Manchin/John Bell Edwards 306 EV ~ 52% PV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 232 EV ~ 48% PV
1789
1792
1796
1800
1804
1808
1812
1816
1820
1824
1828
1832
1836
1840
Birney and his Liberty Party shine in this election, not winning the election by just 7 votes. He also accidentally causes a spoiler effect, which denied Van Buren a majority. The House does wind up picking Van Buren anyway, who declines to run for 1844, because he thinks the voters don't want him.
George Washington (Federalist) 1789-1796
John Adams (Federalist) 1796-1804
Charles Pinckney (Federalist) 1804-1812
DeWitt Clinton (Federalist) 1812-1816
James Monroe (Democratic-Republican) 1816-1824
William H. Crawford (Democratic-Republican) 1824-1828
John Quincy Adams (National Republican) 1828-1832
Andrew Jackson (Democratic) 1832-1836
Martin Van Buren (Democratic) 1836-1844
1792
1796
1800
1804
1808
1812
1816
1820
1824
1828
1832
1836
1840
Birney and his Liberty Party shine in this election, not winning the election by just 7 votes. He also accidentally causes a spoiler effect, which denied Van Buren a majority. The House does wind up picking Van Buren anyway, who declines to run for 1844, because he thinks the voters don't want him.
George Washington (Federalist) 1789-1796
John Adams (Federalist) 1796-1804
Charles Pinckney (Federalist) 1804-1812
DeWitt Clinton (Federalist) 1812-1816
James Monroe (Democratic-Republican) 1816-1824
William H. Crawford (Democratic-Republican) 1824-1828
John Quincy Adams (National Republican) 1828-1832
Andrew Jackson (Democratic) 1832-1836
Martin Van Buren (Democratic) 1836-1844
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shiftygiant
Gone Fishin'
I'm struggling to understand the chain of logic within your TL, the circumstances that lead to these referendums, why such referendums happen even ITTL, or why they got the results they got.
Not really an alternate electoral map so much as an alternate referendum map:
Queen Elizabeth II dies in 2013. Scotland narrowly votes Yes to independence after Prince Charles, the Duke of Windsor (he passes on the throne to focus on the Prince's Trust and Prince's Foundation) says "while it would be sad for Scotland to leave, we would gladly welcome another Commonwealth realm into the family", with the "we" implicitly including King William. Support skyrockets for independence in Wales and Northern Ireland, as well as in the Channel Islands, with the knowledge that they can stay as Commonwealth realms. The Brexit referendum occurs before Scotland's departure is final, and Scots are still able to vote in it. Controversially, they swing the result from Leave to Remain after King William obliquely praises them for maintaining "Peace in Europe". That swing forces a second pair of referendums in December 2017 at several English activists' behest to fully devolve the UK into a set of four independent realms with the ability to set their own EU policy as well as freedom of citizenship (similar to that between the UK and Ireland for Northern Irish people). That referendum passes in each realm, although narrowly in England because of elderly voters fearing that it will "diminish the stature of the UK." A second referendum, to rotate the UN Security Council seat among the four nations of the UK, also passes, by lopsided margins in the smaller nations; the crown dependencies reject it as they are not allowed a chance to retain the seat.
Charles wouldn't pass on the throne. Whilst Wales and NI would see Independence boost, the inclusion of the Channel Islands as countries vying for freedom form the English yolk is bizarre- you might as well have included the Falklands. W h y would Brexit still occur in a TL where both the Queen died in 2013 and Scotland left in 2014- the latter would lead to Cameron resigning, replaced by Boy George who would likely end up with a hung Parliament and Coalition Mk. II, which would see Brexit thrown out of the window. Even if this EU Referendum happens before Scotland Exits, why would Scotland be voting in it if they're literally about to leave and the negotiations are reaching conclusion? Actually what's even worse is that IoTL the plan was that Scotland would have been gone by March 2016 (and if the PoD is 2013, then this would still be the case), and the EU Ref had originally been planned for around now 2017. Unless Boy George brings it forwards, and why would he, Scotland wouldn't participate because it's a decision that the UK is taking and not them with their imminent departure. If the King makes such an endorsement for Remain, then he's going to cause a constitutional crisis on a scale not seen since Edward VII. Who are these English activists pushing for greater devolution? Because the only ones I can really think of are people like Jon Cruddas, and if there is an EU Referendum, this would lead naturally to assume he and his clique are not in power. Beyond that is pure fantasy, as what is being proposed is not devolution, but the full dismemberment and disintegration of the United Kingdom into independent nation states. I cannot stress how much of a leap this is.
The results also don't make sense, as you've failed to give us a reason to why the results are like that. Nor why, for some reason, Scotland is still involved.
10% swing towards Jimmy Carter in Oklahoma in 1976 (-5% from Ford and +5% to Carter)
This was well within the realm of possibility if Carter had ran a better campaign and done better in the debates. I'll also do a map like this for Virginia and maybe a couple other states that were really close.
This was well within the realm of possibility if Carter had ran a better campaign and done better in the debates. I'll also do a map like this for Virginia and maybe a couple other states that were really close.
fashbasher
Banned
It was a half-baked idea. I'll admit, I chuckled pretty hard...it literally was a shower idea.
I imagine Georgia would probably go Blue.This is never going to happen, But...
Joe Manchin/John Bell Edwards 306 EV ~ 52% PV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 232 EV ~ 48% PV
This map is actually more realistic IMO. I think a Democratic ticket comprised of two centrist Southerners would absolutely blow an unpopular Trump out of the water in 2020.
I doubt it. Didn't a recent poll show that something like 60% of Americans believe the Democratic Party is not in touch with their needs? The Dems should move in a more Populist direction.
This map is actually more realistic IMO. I think a Democratic ticket comprised of two centrist Southerners would absolutely blow an unpopular Trump out of the water in 2020.
Manchin and Bell Edwards could be described as populists, just not hard-left populists like Sanders or Warren. populism is largely a meaningless phrase anyway, as you could call everyone from George Wallace to Bernie Sanders a "populist". also I'd be willing to bet a large number of those who believe the Democratic Party is not in touch with their needs believe it's gone too far to the left.
Just for shits and giggles, the map in 538's current polls-only forecast. Technically, it works with probability, so this isn't totally accurate, but it is what'll happen if each state voted exactly as the polls-only most-likely forecast has it voting. (That was a confusing sentence. I apologize.) Maine's 2nd CD puts Trump over the top.
Donald Trump (R-NY)/Mike Pence (R-IN) - 270 EV, 44.9% PV
Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 268 EV, 46.1% PV
Gary Johnson (L-NM)/William Weld (L-MA) - 0 EV, 7.7% PV
And also that Trump won despite losing the PV by 2 points
Imagine how pissed off a lot of voters would be if that happened. And you thought 2000 was bad.
Lmfao who knew...
My heart skipped a few beats that day. It's never really recovered.
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