Discussion in 'Alternate History Maps and Graphics' started by Tayya, Jan 19, 2012.
Montgomery County, TX, just north of Houston, which went Trump 73-22.
A little work in project. I don't have a clear PoD for why there is this radically different American - proportional representation, broad presidential coalitions of parties (à la Chile) among other things, but I was thinking either Civil War of Reconstruction-era stuff, but with a lot of butterfly killing.
I'd ask you to cease and desist, but I mean, I let @MoralisticCommunist do his(/her) thing, and that's even closer, so.
This is a one off, I wouldn't dare and compete with Laboratories of Democracy, don't worry
Bit of a cheaty answer this, but if you count the Gulf of Mexico as the Atlantic, not that much. Even still, with targeted attacks in the right counties, it's not too bad. You'd either need a 16.9% swing or a 28.2% swing, but if you target right you can do it with less nationally.
Flip Yuma County (2.7% swing), Cochise County (11.3% swing), Hidalgo County (3.3% swing) and Luna County (1.9% swing) along the southern border of Arizona and New Mexico. Then you go along the Rio Grande valley in Texas, taking Hudspeth (10.2%), Pecos (11%), Terrell (16.9%) and Kinney (16.8%). This would take you to the Gulf with a 16.9% swing, but crucially if you make Trump do a bit worse amongst Hispanics (specifically Mexicans in that part of the world), then you'd be able to do it with less swing.
If you want to go actually coast to coast, then you probably need a third party spoiler, perhaps a Texas National Party - but let's assume there isn't one. Parts of East Texas are insanely Republican, and there's no clear path any further North. You can at least try to make progress by taking Atascosa (14.5%), Guadalupe (15.9%) and Hays (0.5%), getting you to Austin. Take Williamson (5%), Bell (7.5%), Falls (16.8%), Robertson (17.5%) and Brazos (11.8%). Here you face a problem - some counties here require colossal swings, so in practice you'd just put extra pressure in these counties. Grimes County needs a 25.6% swing, so the people of Navasota, Texas will get bombarded with adverts. This takes you to Walker county, which is an "easy" 12.3% swing, before another difficult county in the form of Houston (not to be confused with Harris which contains the city of Houston - 120 miles to the south of here). Houston County needs a big swing of 25.5% so the very circular city of Crockett, Texas will get an advert bomb too. The next county you cover is the hardest on the entire route -Cherokee County requires a staggering 28.2% swing, but you can target Jacksonville, Texas and hope for the best. You can now leave Texas via Smith (20.5%), Gregg (20.7%) and Harrison (22%) counties. Fortunately these hard counties are all in the same media market except Harrison and Grimes so you could just focus on that one media market based around Tyler-Longview.
You have now got to Caddo Parish, Louisiana, which in fact did vote Democrat. There is then a natural path east, going via the following Louisiana parishes: Red River (5.2%), Bienville (4.5%), Lincoln (9.8%), Ouachita (12.7%) and Morehouse (5.7%). This has a border that is barely half a mile long with the Democratic voting Chicot County in Arkansas. You have now reached the Mississippi. But we can keep going.
In Mississippi, go due east to Atalla County and take it (10% swing), and then Winston County (6.2%). You have now reached the Black Belt of the Deep South, named after the soil of the area, but the legacy of slavery in the area remains, with a majority in most counties descended from slaves who worked those very fields. These African-American voters vote Democrat overwhelmingly and allow you to easily head towards the Atlantic. You do need to flip three counties in Georgia - Peach (1.5%), Twiggs (0.8%) and Wilkinson (5.1%), but then you can go straight to the coast, crossing into South Carolina and going via Allendale, Hampton and Jasper counties.
I might put up a map later showing the counties that would flip under a 28.2% swing nationally, plus a more realistic 12% nationally, with 8% extra in Texas and 8.2% extra in the target counties.
You... don't own the concept of a U.S. parliamentary democracy...
he's not doing a parliamentary democracy, PR =/= parliamentary democracy just like multi-party system =/= parliamentary democracy
Indeed, and I believe I've mentioned elected executives do exist in that America.
Plus, if we were to use a 1776 as a PoD (like you do? Idk if you've ever mentioned that) , many US states had various innovative governmental structures that have disappeared due to widespread copying of the federal model - like a directory in Pennsylvania, the parliamentarism of Massachusetts and Connecticut or the weak governor model of New York.
But worry not, my idea for the map I posted above is much more along the lines of that discussion we had over how US parties were up to the 70s more of ethnic than ideological coalitions. So I wanted to run with that, but with a certain element of Latin America-like politics of multi-party systems in the legislative that coalesce in (in)formal pacts to elect a preferred chief executive.
I've never realized before now how many letters 'parliamentary' and 'paramilitary' have in common.
...Because I kept reading "paramilitary democracy."
Why did the Virginia part of the Eastern Shore get given to Maryland?
Wow, a 28.2 percent flip needed. Which means Clinton lost something like 78-22?
I'm surprised there isn't a pathway that *somewhat* easier farther north, your route to New Mexico, north through Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, South Dakota, Minnesota toward Chicago and east...
Note, with either type of swing, Clinton gets more than 100% in DC and Trump gets negative votes. (Clinton was 90.5%, Trump 4.1 and about 5% to other candidates)
Presumably this would be a swing to the Democrats, since they'd be the ones getting coast-to-coast counties.
Because that's a mistake Thanks for pointing it out !
Another map I'd be really curious to see would be what it would take for a Democrat to win a simple majority of counties (1525). I assume they'd have to either have an exceptional amount of support in rural areas, or otherwise they'd probably have to win by an absurd margin just to get a majority of counties. I think I'll work on such a map, but it'll be take a while.
I meant in OTL, so that 28.2% swing would be enough to change it to winning by the Democrats...
This would be the map if every state had swung 30% Democratic in 2016 compared to 2012, like Utah did. I haven't counted the counties obviously but I think Clinton wins a majority of them or at least comes very close.
John F. Kennedy/Lyndon B. Johnson- 397 Electoral Votes, 55.4% Popular Vote (Democratic)
Barry Goldwater/William Scranton- 141 Electoral Votes, 44.2% Popular Vote (Republican)
This is a random 1964 election with a living Kennedy I made for a potential Kennedy survives timeline. The idea behind this is that there is still an assassination attempt on Kennedy but he survives and is just to injured to serve as president for about a month. Johnson does well enough as acting president and is still needed to secure Texas, so he is kept on the ticket in spite of rumors that he would be replaced.
Basically Goldwater does better than he did IRL but still loses in a less severe landslide. Kennedy still gets a decent sympathy vote from the injury but it is less than the amount Johnson got when Kennedy died. Goldwater also chooses the more experienced and moderate Scranton as his running mate which helps. Goldwater has stated that Miller was only his running mate to piss Johnson off, so him choosing Scranton is a logical effect of Kennedy living.
1996 if Pat Buchanan had run as a third party (Ross Perot still runs and does about as well as he did IOTL)
Buchanan wins 7-8% of the popular vote and throws the entire South to Clinton. note that I believe this would likely be the map if Buchanan had won the GOP nomination as well.
Just wondering if anyone might help in my latest (hare-brained) map scheme here.
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