Discussion in 'Alternate History Maps and Graphics' started by Tayya, Jan 19, 2012.
Colorado would probably be a 5 way tossup with those candidates.
The result of a game of Win the White House.
Henry Williams (California)/Sarah Patel (Arizona) - Republican: 360 E.V. 66,92%
Sarah MacDonald (Idaho)/Paul Farmer (Mississippi) - Democratic: 178 E.V. 33.08%
I wrote this up all the way back in October, but then forgot about it due to schoolwork:
Best-case (but sort-of-silly, and not-really-that-serious) scenario for Trump, Johnson, Stein, and McMullin without throwing the election to the House and still allowing a narrow Clinton win:
In June 2016, Donald Trump finally responded to Mitt Romney’s repeated attacks on him throughout March and April by personally attacking Mitt; Trump insulted Mitt’s “corrupt” and “shameful” business connections, his “terrible job as Governor,” his “backwards way of thinking,” his “real ugly-lookin’ kids,” and his “oddly-shaped head.” This was enough for Romney to endorse the Johnson/Weld ticket in July. Despite this, Johnson was excluded from the debates, as he only reached a 14.1% average by September 15. This was followed by numerous gaffes that Johnson made in several interviews in late September and much of October, which negatively affected him in the polls. Nevertheless, Johnson heavily campaigned across the West during the final weeks and days of the election, often visiting several towns per day on only 5 to 6 hours of sleep.
Meanwhile, Evan McMullin announced his candidacy in early August, claiming to be “the true conservative alternative to Donald Trump.” Trump’s subsequent mockery of the McMullin candidacy led to Trump mocking the Mormon Church for not supporting his candidacy live on TV. This prompted the Huntsman family, Utah Governor Gary Herbert, and several Mormon politicians to endorse Evan McMullin over Trump or Gary Johnson.
However, the liberals/Democrats were not united behind a single candidate either. In June, Ben and Jerry’s founders viewed Bernie’s sudden support for Hillary Clinton as a betrayal of the progressive movement. Scorned by the fact that they made an ice-cream flavor for him, and were arrested twice over pro-Bernie activities, Ben and Jerry decided to support the Stein/Baraka ticket after hearing them speak at a rally in Burlington. This convinced Stein to open several campaign offices in Vermont, hoping to flip the state the same way McMullin was trying to in Utah. In October, polls showed her candidacy in the state rising to an 11% average, causing Senator Bernie Sanders to campaign for Clinton in Vermont, as the state was suddenly back in the political spotlight.
Election night proved to be rather interesting…
VOTER APATHY AND YOU: THE 2016 ELECTION
CNN broadcast, 6:30 PM:
Alright, the first state of the night is being called. South Carolina has been won by Donald Trump. The states of Virginia, and Vermont are expected to announce their results very soon.
MSNBC broadcast, 7:00 PM:
Okay, the polls have officially closed in the states of Vermont, Kentucky, Indiana, Virginia, South Carolina and Georgia. South Carolina already went to Trump, and Virginia was called in favor of Secretary Clinton a few minutes ago. While Georgia and Indiana are swing states and are expected to take a while to declare a winner, the vote is still in the air in Vermont, where there are, surprisingly, a large number of Jill Stein votes coming in…
Stein/Baraka campaign headquarters, Brooklyn, NYC, 7:25 PM:
Stein: Oh my God. Ajamu! Ajamu, get out here!
Baraka (hastily exiting restroom, adjusting pants): What? What happened?
Stein: Vermont. It went for us!
Baraka: (pause) You’re kidding.
Stein: No, look! (raising volume on TV)
TV Announcer: Again, Jill Stein of the Green Party has won the state of Vermont. We have the results up, and Stein has won an incredible narrow victory, winning only 35.1% of the vote…
Stein: Just around 90,000 votes; Hillary got 34%, Trump got 25% or something like that, Bernie won about 3% or so in write-ins, and Johnson and others split the rest! I guess those Ben & Jerry endorsements really did the trick!
Baraka: And the voter apathy, the increase in college student turnout and our visits to all those local campuses, and, really, all the campaign trips we took up there towards the end…
Clinton/Kaine campaign headquarters, Brooklyn, NYC, 7:27 PM:
Intern: It doesn’t look like they’ll be doing a recount in Vermont, Madam Secretary. The media seems to be blaming it on the low voter turnout and the disenfranchised Bernie Bros voting for Stein out of protest.
Hillary: But… it’s just impossible! Vermont was one of our safest states!
Bill: Well, this whole election has been crazy and unexpected since it got started. Why would it stop being so on election night?
Hillary: Please shut it, Bill, you’re not helping.
CNN broadcast, 7:30 PM:
And the polls have just closed in Ohio, West Virginia and North Carolina. Of course, North Carolina and Ohio are vital swing states and neither states have gone to a candidate, but, for those just tuning in, about ten minutes ago, West Virginia went to Trump…
FOX broadcast, 8:15 PM:
Right now, Trump is on a winning streak – so far the states of West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi have gone to the Republican nominee. We’re still waiting on the results of many more states, but it looks like Trump might also be able to win over the Democratic states of New Hampshire and Connecticut.
Trump/Pence campaign headquarters, Manhattan, NYC, 8:42 PM:
Trump (looking at phone): I just won New Hampshire and Connecticut. By God. I could actually win this thing!
NBC broadcast, 8:50 PM:
And we have just received word and, um, confirmation that the state of Maine has been called in favor of Hillary Clinton, with Doctor Jill Stein of the Green Party coming in second place there. Tonight seems to have been a very good night for the Green party ticket...
Stein/Baraka campaign headquarters, Brooklyn, NYC, 8:53 PM:
[Loud party music inside the premises, including The Black-Eyed Peas’ “I Gotta Feeling,” can be heard from outside; colorful neon lights inside can be seen from outside as well.]
Stein (allegedly): Yeah! Take that, establishment! Whoo!
Clinton/Kaine campaign headquarters, Brooklyn, NYC, 8:55 PM:
Hillary: Another plurality? Goddamn it!
CNN broadcast, 9:07 PM:
Well, with the polls closing several minutes ago in 15 states, several more have been declared for Donald Trump. He’s won Louisiana, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, we can now verify he won Arkansas by about 54%, Missouri by about 52%, and early results are showing he might win Texas as well, but by a much narrower than expected margin. As of right now, several states, including Florida, North Carolina and Iowa, are still way too close to call. On the Democratic side, Clinton has won New York, Minnesota and Michigan, and will likely win Wisconsin…
CBS broadcast, 9:18 PM:
BREAKING NEWS: UPSET RESULTS! WISCONSIN, IOWA, NORTH CAROLINA ALL GO TO TRUMP
Clinton/Kaine campaign headquarters, Brooklyn, NYC, 9:18 PM:
Hillary: No! No, no, no, no!
Trump/Pence campaign headquarters, Manhattan, NYC, 9:18 PM:
Trump: Yes! Yes, yes, yes, yes!
Johnson/Weld campaign headquarters, Salt Lake City, Utah, 9:27 PM:
Johnson: (ecstatic) Oh, thank God…
TV Announcer: Again, for those of you just tuning in, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has won his home state of New Mexico. The state was in a narrow three-way tie going in the hours before the polls closed, and, uh, well it looks like Gary Johnson has just won that tie.
Johnson: Yes! (putting arms up) We did it, Bill, we did it!
Weld: (apathetic) Yeah.
Johnson: Come on, Bill, we’ve won electoral votes! We’ve done it!
Weld: But Gary, Hillary’s losing in all of those other states and she came in second place here. What if she…
Johnson: Will you please stop talking about how great Hillary is? You know you’re not helping when you do that.
Weld: Sorry… but she is a strong leader.
Johnson: I know she is, Bill. But… (turning to face room, shouts) Hillary’s not a strong leader IN NEW MEXICO!
[cheers and whoops from room, Weld can be heard moaning with anxiety]
NBC broadcast, 9:35 PM:
Anchor: And Colorado has been won by Hillary Clinton by yet another plurality… Uh, we’ll be covering that, uh, in the minutes and hours ahead but right now we take you live to Xenia, Ohio…
Reporter: …Here in Ohio the polls have been closed for two hours, but like many a time before, the final results are still not certain. The crucial battleground state has sometimes not announced the final results until early the next morning, and based on how close it is, this could very well be the case this time around as well…
Reporter: Thank you… Meanwhile, breaking news out of Hawaii – Hillary Clinton has won it. (pause) Moving on to Arizona…
FOX broadcast, 10:03 PM:
The polls may have just closed in Montana, but they’ve already called the state in favor of Donald Trump... Meanwhile, Florida, Nevada, Utah and Arizona are still unable to be called just yet, while the DNC chairman for the state of New Mexico has already called for a recount of New Mexico’s results. New Mexico was won about half an hour ago by third-party candidate Gary Johnson by about 3% or 4% of the vote there…
McMullin/Finn campaign headquarters, Salt Lake City, Utah, 10:40 PM:
McMullin: Come on, come on…
McMullin’s Camera-Shy Girlfriend: Don’t worry, honey.
McMullin: I’m not worried, sweetie. I’m impatient.
McMullin’s Camera-Shy Girlfriend: Then be patient, Evan.
McMullin: But I can’t. Tonight’s been a miracle for third-parties and hell for Clinton and Trump. I just know that that good fortune is going to blow our way. I can just feel it.
Finn: Well it’s not just a feeling, Evan, it’s also a likely outcome. We drove all over this state in the final days. We were even endorsed by Governor Herbert. There is very little chance in my mind that we won’t win this state and –.
McMullin’s Camera-Shy Girlfriend: Shhhhhh! Breaking News, turn up the volume.
McMullin: (seeing headline: “Utah results”): This is it!
Announcer: And the Deseret state is being called in favor of third-party candidate Evan McMullin! The independent candidate received almost 490,000 votes, or about 45% of the total vote…
[room erupts in cheers]
McMullin: Yes! (turns, hugs girlfriend)
Finn: (proudly) You’ve made history here tonight, Evan.
McMullin: We all have, Mindy, (to supporters) we all have!
Finn (to McMullin’s girlfriend): (question) I wonder… when should he announce his run for that US Senate seat in 2018?
McMullin’s Camera-Shy Girlfriend: Mindy, honey, he already did.
MSNBC broadcast, 11:00 PM:
Okay, we are coming down to the wire here. So now the polls are officially closed in the states of California, Oregon, Idaho, and Washington. California and Washington have already been called for Hillary Clinton a few minutes ago, she won both by wide margins, but Arizona and Idaho are still too close to call…
NBC broadcast, 11:09 PM:
…And we have just received word that – oh, wow – Gary Johnson has just been declared the winner of the state of Nevada by a fraction of a margin. The results are shocking to say the least, but, uh, well, it seems that Libertarian surrogate Penn Jillette has just pulled another trick out of his magician hat, and boy is this one a doozy! The, um, we will have some specifics up soon…
Johnson/Weld campaign headquarters, Salt Lake City, Utah, 11:26 PM:
Johnson: (ecstatic) Wow! A second state? That puts us ahead of McMullin – Yes, that means we’re back in third place! Oh, man, this is so unbelievable!
Weld: (opens up aspirin bottle) Yeah, (gulps down pill) tell me about it.
CNN broadcast, 11:30 PM:
Another upset! In a night full of highly competitive and closely watched state election results, Clinton has lost another battleground state. This one: Arizona. The winner: Donald Trump. The state was heavily fought for, but we have received word that Trump has been declared the winner by what they are calling “an incredibly narrow margin.” They have not said whether any third-party candidates have affected the results or not…
Clinton/Kaine campaign headquarters, Brooklyn, NYC, 11:31 PM:
Jamie the Intern: Yes?
Hillary: The rum.
Jamie the Intern: Yes (pours a shot).
CBS broadcast, 1:06 AM:
Alright, coming down to the last few states left remaining and the election is still undecided, but still winnable by either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. And – wait a second… and we’re just receiving word that Alaska has been called for… Libertarian Gary Johnson! That is Johnson’s third state win, more than any other third-party candidate. The polls in Alaska don’t close until one in the morning, that’s one in the morning on the, uh, the east coast, uh, but the precinct report give a large Johnson win of about 40% of the vote, with Trump coming in a close second with about 30% and Secretary Clinton in third at about 25%, with the remaining 5% or so going for Jill Stein and other candidates. And as you can see by the map, only four states, including Florida and Ohio, are yet to be declared. Both Florida and Ohio are considered tossup states but Hillary Clinton is maintaining a very tiny poll lead in both states...
CNN broadcast, 1:13 AM (EST):
BREAING NEWS: FLORIDA GOES BLUE, OHIO RESULTS IMMINENT!
…And Ohio, one of the many narrow states of the night, is finally announcing the election results. If Donald Trump or a third-party candidate wins it, the election will be thrown to the House of Representatives, but if Clinton wins it, then she will have won the election with just 271 electoral votes, just barely over 270 electoral vote threshold. ...And here are the results now...
Clinton/Kaine campaign headquarters, Brooklyn, NYC, 1:13 AM (EST):
Hillary: Oh please, please!
Johnson/Weld campaign headquarters, Salt Lake City, Utah, 1:13 AM (EST):
Johnson: Come on, Ohio, please deadlock this thing!
Weld: (quietly praying) Come on, please just let Hillary win this thing, come on, come on…
Trump/Pence campaign headquarters, Manhattan, NYC, 1:13 PM (EST):
Pence: Yes, yes?
Trump: Out with it already, you damn loser reporter woman!
McMullin/Finn campaign headquarters, Salt Lake City, Utah, 1:13 PM (EST):
[McMullin’s Camera-Shy Girlfriend and McMullin dancing together to soft country music in private quarters]
Stein/Baraka campaign headquarters, Brooklyn, NYC, 1:13 PM (EST):
[Party music still continuing, white smoke emitting from some windows; noise ordinance violation notice already posted to door]
Baraka: We should really… really should start getting ready to… do that, uh, concession speech thing, y’know? The thing…
Stein: Oh, yeah, yeah… Just a few more minutes?
CNN broadcast, 1:14 AM (EST):
...And the winner of Ohio, and the Presidential election, is…
Trump/Pence campaign headquarters, Manhattan, NYC, 1:14 PM (EST):
Trump: Come on, baby! Papa needs a new office! I already have painters on stand-by waiting to make the White House a Gold House!
Trump: Yeah, I got the idea from The Daily Show. Also, make a note – “Get the Daily Show cancelled.” They have some good ideas, but not enough of them. Sad.
Clinton/Kaine campaign headquarters, Brooklyn, NYC, 1:14 PM (EST):
Bill: Honey, you’re crushing my hand. I appreciate the nostalgia of when you gave birth to Chelsea, but you’re really hurting –
CNN broadcast, 1:14 AM (EST):
Hillary Clinton, which means the election is finally over! Hillary Clinton has done it! She has won the election and –
Clinton/Kaine campaign headquarters, Brooklyn, NYC, 1:14 AM (EST):
Hillary: (letting go of Bill’s hand to shoot up arms) Yes!
Bill: Oh thank God.
Intern: I know, right, Mr. Clinton?
Intern: That Hillary won!
Bill: What? Oh! Oh, alright!
Hillary: Bill, at last! After all these years, I’m finally going be President!
Bill: Alright, I’m going back to the White House! Yeah, it’s Party Time!
Hillary: (eyes widen) Right…
Trump/Pence campaign headquarters, Manhattan, NYC, 1:16 AM (EST):
Trump: Pierson, Bannon, get our people in Florida and Ohio on the line, this thing was rigged!
Pence: But we won several states that were supposed to go to Clinton –
Trump: Rigged! The whole thing’s rigged!
Pence: Donald –
Trump: Shut up, Little Mikey, you’re either with me or against me on this.
Pence: (under breath) (huff) I’m setting up a Pence 2020 Super-PAC on my phone this very minute. What do you think?
Trump: (looking up from his own phone) Sorry, what’d’ya say?
Pence: Oh! Uh, nothing.
Trump: Good, that’s how it should be.
Pence: (eyes narrow) Right…
Again, I wrote this back in October, so I was really off with which candidate won where and whom won what. ...And my apologies for this being such a long post...
Now, I want a challenge for everyone. Try to make an ATL where this map is plausible.
A slightly more effort-intensive Alternate Electoral Map:
The European Parliament is mostly elected by List-based PR, apart from in Ireland, which does things by STV because they like to be different, and the German-speaking people in Belgium, who vote by First-Past-The-Post-but-it's-called-PR, because they only have one MEP.
Until 1999, the UK was also deliberately perverse: they elected their MEPs by FPTP, with constituencies created by squishing together a load of Parliamentary constituencies with very little rhyme or reason. There were some very ugly-looking seats, and some very disproportionate results. The Lib Dems didn't win a single seat under this system until 1994.
So I thought I'd do a little thought experiment on what the British delegation to Brussels would look like if that system was retained. I squished together between eight and ten Westminster constituencies into each Euro constituency (unlike the OTL system, I didn't cross Regional boundaries, because I wanted to remain somewhat sane) and plugged the 2015 general election results into them. Now, obviously, this can't model an exact EUParl result, for many reasons, including: 1) the Boundary Commission will have designed different Westminster boundaries due to butterflies; 2) People would vote differently because of butterflies; 3) People vote differently in European and Westminster elections; etc. etc.
But this is probably the best possible model for an FPTP Euro election, because they don't count the OTL Euro votes by Westminster constituency, only by Council area. And because of Duverger's Law, you probably wouldn't get vast amounts of people voting for UKIP, simply because they wouldn't have a chance of winning any particular seat. So the proportion of people voting for Labour or Conservative would probably be broadly similar to Westminster elections.
But anyway, here we go. Apologies for the border gore.
Conservative - 43 (36.9%)
Labour - 21 (30.4%)
SNP - 6 (4.7%)
Northern Ireland (as OTL) - 3
Keeping FPTP for the Euros has huge consequences - mainly for UKIP but also for the LibDems although the LibDems (and Plaid) can win seats sometimes.
All that publicity and sweet, sweet Brussels money goes.
Yeah, that was part of the "etc. etc."
The potential impact on Westminster elections could be interesting, though: on the one hand, UKIP get less exposure; on the other hand, people like Godfrey Bloom don't bring the brand into disrepute, because they're Just Some Men.
Is that a Derby-Leicester constituency?
Leicester physically has to go with either Derby or Nottingham, unless you have cross-Regional constituencies. That was one of the main ones where I thought "I'm defiling the very concept of geography with this thing".
It's more the fact that you're one constituency away from including where I was born, where I work and where I live in the same seat...
Very interesting, it could do with a UKIP breakthrough I think. I personally doubt Fitzwilliam kill that (or am I missing the point?)
It's just mapping OTL's 2015 GE onto some reasonably plausible boundaries. If I was going for a more Mazdank, Creative kind of thing, I'd have the Anti-Federalist League winning the South Essex and Dagenham seat.
Malta also use STV don't they?
They do also actually have.... six.... candidates on the lists in the German-speaking electoral college of Belgium.
A very bad game as Donald Trump (on purpose.) https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/game/382785. I gave liberal answers to every question, and refused to answer Clinton.
Here's the results.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) (528 electoral votes) (61.8%)
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY)/Governor Chris Christie (R-NY) (10 electoral votes) (35.1%)
A few notes. Clinton got the highest percentage, best margin, and second highest percentage of electoral votes of any contested election ever. She also got the highest number of electoral votes ever. Trump, at 45 million votes (to Clinton's 80+), got fewer votes than Nixon.
This is the twelfth installment in my alternate American election series.
Kansas has always been a deeply conservative state, having constantly voted Republican even during the National Union era. After the Conservative Revolution brought about the rise of the Religious Right the state became even more right-wing, with the legislature constantly moving back and forth between the Constitution party and more moderate Republican.
This party system was irrevocably changed however by the seismic election of 2010. With the Second Great Depression leading to a demonization of the GOP across the country, the Labor party of Kansas saw a golden opportunity for Labor to try and take control of the Kansas legislature for the first time since 1962. To optimize their chances of gaining control even more, they rebranded themselves as the Non-Partisan League, and persuaded a few liberal Republican representatives to join their cause for a left of center Kansas. However, these dreams where cut short by the unexpected rise of the Nationalist party, a far-right initiative by Bob Brownback who sought to "renew" Kansas through an union of the three Cs, Churches, Corporations, and Country.
With the Nationalist party being able to attract defectors from the right-wing of the Republican party, it was able to come out of 2010 with a plurality of the seats and through a coalition with the Constitution party they formed a majority government. Bob Brownback soon went to work on building his ideal state, removing all state regulations on oil and gas companies and removing the state minimum wage in an effort to revitalize Kansas' energy sector. All scientific papers concerning climate change were banned, Bible studies became mandatory in all public schools, and sales taxes were doubled in order to pay for the massive cuts to income tax. Brownback also began to consolidate his power politically, absorbing the Constitution party into his Nationalist Caucus and transferring as much power as constitutionally possible to the Governor himself. He even signed off all rights to the natural gas deposits of Kansas to the infamous Indiana Standard Oil company, which is known for ruling the state of Indiana with an iron fist through the United Democratic-Republican party.
When the conservative Republicans realized just how far-right Brownback was taking the state, they joined the Non-Partisan League, uniting together behind the single cause of ousting the Nationalist Caucus. Yet the left-wing farmer's party, the Populists, refused to joined the Non-Partisan League, seeing the elitist Republican party as just as bad as the far-right Nationalists. Thus, by a razor thin two seat majority the Nationalist Caucus held onto power, even gaining seats in the senate. Thus Bob Brownback was cleared to continue his consolidation of power for another four, appointing former Oil executives to the Kansas Supreme Court in order to continue the merging of company and state.
The election of 2014 was a tense one, which resulted in the Non-Partisan League holding 71 seats versus the Nationalists' 76. However even those the Nationalist Caucus no longer held a majority in the House, with the Senate being elected every four years they kept control over government, aided greatly by the Kansas Supreme Court's "flexible interpretations" of the state Constitution.
Finally, in the election of 2016, the Populist party joined the Labor and the Republicans in the Non-Partisan League. While the lingering Depression fueled an upswing in support for most derivations of the Constitution party, the citizens of Kansas realized how their poverty rate had risen dramatically from 11.2% to 16.6% under Nationalist rule, placing Kansas among the top ten poorest states in America. Thus even though some members of the populist party formed the "Independent Populist party" to serve as a left-wing splinter the Non-Partisan League still managed to gain an impressive 21 seats, allowing a left of center party to form government in the state for the first time in more than half a century.
Non-Partisan League - Formed in 2010 as a vehicle for Labor and left-leaning Republicans to try and win the 2010 election after the Second Great Depression, it now has grown to include all Republicans and most Populists in order to oust the Nationalist Caucus. Now with the historic election of Kansas' first female governor, Kathleen Sebelius, the Non-Partisan League plans to rebuild the state piece by piece.
Nationalist Caucus - A far-right party also formed in 2010, the party had become a vehicle for the Indiana Standard Oil company to further their interests in the state of Kansas and exploit all its resources. By purporting its famous goal of merging Churches, Corporations, and Country into one, the party gained a vast following of devout supporters, who frequently attend "prayer rallies" with their dear Governor Bob Brownback. However now that the Nationalist Caucus has fallen out of the power the flow of Indiana Oil funds has stopped, Bob Brownback has been voted out of the party, and a wide array of libertarian fanatics have risen to vie for control of the dying party, which many analysts predict won't last another election cycle.
Independent Populists - While the national Populist party of America endorsing the Non-Partisan League, many traditional farmers back the splinter Independent Populists, who still see the Republicans as their enemy, never having forgotten their use of eminent domain to seize thousands of family owned farms for the benefit of oil and gas prospectors.
Westboro Baptists - The Westboro Baptist party is an extremist Christian party based out of the infamous Westboro Baptist church. Deemed too far-right by even the Nationalist Caucus, they have been banned as a political party multiple times since their founding in 1994, mostly recently in 2011 after one of their members shot and killed a National Guardsmen stationed at Topeka's state house in response to the US Military's repeal of their ban on gay soldiers.
Credit for the basemap goes to Chicxulub.
The results of a President Infinity game I played a while ago. Obviously unrealistic, of course. My running mate was Susana Martinez.
I think a number of states would be won on five way splits.
Separate names with a comma.