Alternate Electoral Maps

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These exit maps keep allowing the leaving states to keep their EVs, and don't reassign them to the remaining US states. Here's my Cal-exit map that fixes that:

genusmap.php


Cal-Exit ("Calexit" doesn't work like Brexit did) would turn this 279-259 D win into a R win.
 
Here's the 2012 result if Romney and Obama tied in the popular vote. This is using US Election Atlas. The margin was 3.86% so all states Obama won by less than 3.86% go to Romney, and Romney gets 1.93% more and Obama gets 1.93% less.
genusmap.php

Barack Obama/Joe Biden-Democratic: 285 EV 49.08%
Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan-Republican: 253 EV 49.08%

Obama won Virginia by 3.87% so it is a virtual tie there but he slightly edges out Romney.

In fact, the tipping point state, Colorado, was won by Obama by a margin of 5.36%. So let's have all states Obama won by less than 5% go to Romney, and a 2.5% swing from Obama to Romney.
genusmap.php

Barack Obama/Joe Biden-Democratic: 272 EV 48.51%
Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan-Republican: 266 EV 49.65%

Only Virginia flips. So the moral of the story is that these things change.
[/QUOTE]
 
Yeah, upstate New York is not that far left by a long shot, especially after this year.

I certainly exaggerated the prominence of Spectrum in the North-East, though the North-East conservative vote is split strongly between Business, Great America, Conservative, Constitution and TEA, leading to even 20% of the voting going to Spectrum being enough to call it for them.

(Though this also means that every southern county with more than 33% African American population being called for Justice...)

I'd also argue the Conservatives should be doing better in Texas, depending on who the party leaders are. Plenty of "establishment" Republicans hail from there.

In the Alt-Timeline of TCUS, the Judicial Council controls the courts and law enforcement (TCUS's US being a sort of democratic meritocracy), and so the conservatives have been, while holding the line against upstarts in the other councils, eviscerated by single-issue voters moving to more evocative parties (pro-lifers and evangelical Christians have moved to constitution, alt-righters to Great America, business-focused conservatives to business, libertarians to Libertarian/Freedom, the freedom Caucus-esque people to TEA, etc.), so only truly center-right "establishment" voters have stayed with Conservative in the Judicial Council.



What is Palm Beach doing as conservative? And Jacksonville as Libertarian? Also what made you choose M-D as Spectrum, just curious.

I forgot the Florida in this scenario forms the bulk of it's states votes, so I compensated by making it more conservative and divided than OTL; my ex post facto justification is that Palm Beach's liberal vote is in flux between Spectrum, Justice and Center, so Business pulls a 15-20% squeaker in the county.

I got a bit rushed and did not use enough information to design the map in many places, so I will have to revise with this in mind.

Though I do not know what M-D is, either...
 
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could anybody help edit this?
 

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I forgot the Florida in this scenario forms the bulk of it's states votes, so I compensated by making it more conservative and divided than OTL; my ex post facto justification is that Palm Beach's liberal vote is in flux between Spectrum, Justice and Center, so Business pulls a 15-20% squeaker in the county.

I got a bit rushed and did not use enough information to design the map in many places, so I will have to revise with this in mind.

Though I do not know what M-D is, either...
Miami Dade county.
 
Here is the third installment in my electoral series concerning the 2016 state elections of an alternate America.

The state of North Carolina is typical of those in the Upper South, having a multiparty system based largely on an urban vs rural divide which is represented by Labor vs Democrats. While in the golden years of the National Coalition these two parties worked together in harmony since the Conservative Revolution of 1972 the two have become sworn enemies. While the Democrats have held government for longer then Labor has in recent years the trend had been reversing with the cities going more and more solidly Labor and the countryside less and less solidly Democratic.

The crowning achievement of this trend was the election of North Carolina's first black governor, Norman Donald, in 2010 as part of Labor's advances made during the depths of the Second Great Depression. However Mr. Donald has been riddled with scandals from old-fashioned nepotism to passing laws that divert funds from the state pension to "urban renewal projects" which many whistle blowers have said result in little more than embezzlement towards African American unions he chairs. This came to a climax in the prolonged Firefighters United vs North Carolina, a court case which started in 2013 but had been appealed all the way up to the Supreme Court of North Carolina by whistle blowers who have said that his moving of funds towards the urban renewal projects represents a conflict of interest as Mr. Donald chairs many urban union boards. In 2015, the governor was cleared of all wrongdoing in a 4 to 3 decision, with the deciding vote having been the godfather of Norman Donald's stepson.

In the 2016 which left-wing commentators have labelled a "whitelash" against the corruption of Labor's policies the party fell nearly 30 seats from 68 to 41, baffling pollsters who thought the Labor-Black Baptist Bloc coalition would win a comfortable fourth term. Instead their worst nightmare came true as a "evangelical" alliance was formed between the Democrats and Constitution party, being the first time the Purple Hearts were in power in the state. Grim days lie ahead for the Hispanic and African American community of the Tar Heel state.

Government:
Democrats - The party of the South, they utterly despised in the North for their thinly veiled racism towards both African Americans and more recently Hispanics. While economically centrist, they are hardcore social conservatives dedicated to the abolition of abortion, the suppression of gay rights, and opposition to feminism. The base consists of rural and middle class whites, though their support among old working class whites has risen in years as Labor becomes more and more focused on racial issues and less and less focused on worker rights.
Constitutionists - The Christian Right has been on the rise across the country and the South is one of their areas with the fastest growing support. As Labor becomes rebuked by whites across the Southeastern US old Labor members have swung hard to the other end of the spectrum and join the right wing Constitution party for its focus on Protestant Christian values. While still a minor force in comparison to Labor or the Democrats their participation as the junior member of the North Carolinian government is sure to increase their influence in the state.

Opposition:
Labor - The second largest party in many Upper South states like North Carolina they have suffered nationwide due to their failure to end the Second Great Recession even after being elected by an impressive majority in 2010. While their stated goal still is the protection of worker rights and labor unions over the past decade they have become more and more focused on racial issues in an attempt to capture black voters from the Black Baptist Bloc. This strategy has backfired enormously, leaving them devoid of their regular base of white working class voters.
Black Baptist Bloc - Formed in 1962 by Martin Luther King Jr. to serve as a vehicle for the passage of civil rights, it has now become the party of rural and conservative blacks who are often ignored by Labor's urban blacks. Despite Labor's attempts to consume the party during their coalition from 2010 to 2016 BBB party members have remained loyal to the Black Church above all else.
Republicans - While not extinct like they are in deep south states the Grand Old Party still has lots of work to do in building up their support in the Upper South. Having adapted their state platform to cater more to the conservative side of things their reputation as New England elites turns away many would be supported in the suburbs of North Carolina. However as one of the few states in which the Republicans are growing in support a future where a three way race exists between Labor, Democrats, and Republicans like that of North Virginia seems possible.
Greens - A rather new party to North Carolina's political system, they received their first in Raleigh during the 2012 election and have been gaining support from younger voters ever since. Based around technophiles in the Research Triangle their extremely liberal social views are unlikely to gain popularity anywhere else in the very conservative state but the facts that can gain any seats at all speaks volumes of the changing demographics of this state.
First People's Party - A party dedicated solely to Native American interests they are a very minor influence in North Carolinian politics but are sometimes courted through token gestures in order to pass particularly controversial bills.

north_carolina_by_moralisticcommunist-dapgmd6.png


Credit for the basemap goes to Chicxulub.
 
Here is the third installment in my electoral series concerning the 2016 state elections of an alternate America.

The state of North Carolina is typical of those in the Upper South, having a multiparty system based largely on an urban vs rural divide which is represented by Labor vs Democrats. While in the golden years of the National Coalition these two parties worked together in harmony since the Conservative Revolution of 1972 the two have become sworn enemies. While the Democrats have held government for longer then Labor has in recent years the trend had been reversing with the cities going more and more solidly Labor and the countryside less and less solidly Democratic.

The crowning achievement of this trend was the election of North Carolina's first black governor, Norman Donald, in 2010 as part of Labor's advances made during the depths of the Second Great Depression. However Mr. Donald has been riddled with scandals from old-fashioned nepotism to passing laws that divert funds from the state pension to "urban renewal projects" which many whistle blowers have said result in little more than embezzlement towards African American unions he chairs. This came to a climax in the prolonged Firefighters United vs North Carolina, a court case which started in 2013 but had been appealed all the way up to the Supreme Court of North Carolina by whistle blowers who have said that his moving of funds towards the urban renewal projects represents a conflict of interest as Mr. Donald chairs many urban union boards. In 2015, the governor was cleared of all wrongdoing in a 4 to 3 decision, with the deciding vote having been the godfather of Norman Donald's stepson.

In the 2016 which left-wing commentators have labelled a "whitelash" against the corruption of Labor's policies the party fell nearly 30 seats from 68 to 41, baffling pollsters who thought the Labor-Black Baptist Bloc coalition would win a comfortable fourth term. Instead their worst nightmare came true as a "evangelical" alliance was formed between the Democrats and Constitution party, being the first time the Purple Hearts were in power in the state. Grim days lie ahead for the Hispanic and African American community of the Tar Heel state.

Government:
Democrats - The party of the South, they utterly despised in the North for their thinly veiled racism towards both African Americans and more recently Hispanics. While economically centrist, they are hardcore social conservatives dedicated to the abolition of abortion, the suppression of gay rights, and opposition to feminism. The base consists of rural and middle class whites, though their support among old working class whites has risen in years as Labor becomes more and more focused on racial issues and less and less focused on worker rights.
Constitutionists - The Christian Right has been on the rise across the country and the South is one of their areas with the fastest growing support. As Labor becomes rebuked by whites across the Southeastern US old Labor members have swung hard to the other end of the spectrum and join the right wing Constitution party for its focus on Protestant Christian values. While still a minor force in comparison to Labor or the Democrats their participation as the junior member of the North Carolinian government is sure to increase their influence in the state.

Opposition:
Labor - The second largest party in many Upper South states like North Carolina they have suffered nationwide due to their failure to end the Second Great Recession even after being elected by an impressive majority in 2010. While their stated goal still is the protection of worker rights and labor unions over the past decade they have become more and more focused on racial issues in an attempt to capture black voters from the Black Baptist Bloc. This strategy has backfired enormously, leaving them devoid of their regular base of white working class voters.
Black Baptist Bloc - Formed in 1962 by Martin Luther King Jr. to serve as a vehicle for the passage of civil rights, it has now become the party of rural and conservative blacks who are often ignored by Labor's urban blacks. Despite Labor's attempts to consume the party during their coalition from 2010 to 2016 BBB party members have remained loyal to the Black Church above all else.
Republicans - While not extinct like they are in deep south states the Grand Old Party still has lots of work to do in building up their support in the Upper South. Having adapted their state platform to cater more to the conservative side of things their reputation as New England elites turns away many would be supported in the suburbs of North Carolina. However as one of the few states in which the Republicans are growing in support a future where a three way race exists between Labor, Democrats, and Republicans like that of North Virginia seems possible.
Greens - A rather new party to North Carolina's political system, they received their first in Raleigh during the 2012 election and have been gaining support from younger voters ever since. Based around technophiles in the Research Triangle their extremely liberal social views are unlikely to gain popularity anywhere else in the very conservative state but the facts that can gain any seats at all speaks volumes of the changing demographics of this state.
First People's Party - A party dedicated solely to Native American interests they are a very minor influence in North Carolinian politics but are sometimes courted through token gestures in order to pass particularly controversial bills.

north_carolina_by_moralisticcommunist-dapgmd6.png


Credit for the basemap goes to Chicxulub.

if you want to edit that i recommend this website to help cauculate the seats http://icon.cat/util/elections
 
Alternate 1976 election
Carter gains 1.5% of vote, Ford loses 1.5%, all states Ford won with 3% or less go to Carter
genusmap.php

Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale-Democratic: 431 EV 51.68%
Gerald Ford/Bob Dole-Republican: 107 EV 46.61%

Ford gains 1.5% of the vote, Carter loses 1.5%, all states Carter won with 3% or less go Ford.
genusmap.php

Gerald Ford/Bob Dole-Republican: 315 EV 49.51%
Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale-Democratic: 223 EV 48.58%
 
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Lacking the skills to edit 538's map, I had to make do.


This is assuming that the Trump's administration goes as well as it looks like it's going, and that a populist Progressive (Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley) beats Kirsten Gillibrand and Deval Patrick in the primaries and then selects Amy Klobuchar as his running mate

This is FiveThirtyEight's projected map for election day, 2020, a week beforehand.

upload_2016-11-24_13-15-30.png
 
No Clinton, No Trump in 2016. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump doesn't run for their parties in the election. The GOP selects Marco Rubio from Florida who beats a large GOP field in a contested convention and the Democrats select Vice-President Joe Biden from Florida who easily secures the party's nomination at the end of March. Running mates are Gov. Nikki Haley from South Carolina and HUD Sec. Julian Castro from Texas. Lincoln Chaffee runs as an Independent, participates in the debates but receives 0 electoral votes.

On Election Day, the polls were tight but Marco Rubio created history becoming the first Hispanic President and Nikki Haley the first female and Indian-American Vice President defeating Vice-President Joe Biden and Senator Martin Heinrich with 322 electoral votes for Senator Rubio and 216 electoral votes for VP Biden.

genusmap.php


Sen. Marco A. Rubio (R-FL)/Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) 322 43.87%
VP. Joseph R. "Joe" Biden Jr (D-DE)/Sen. Martin T. Heinrich (D-NM) 216 40.23%
Fmr Gov. Lincoln D. Chaffee (I-RI)/Fmr Sen. Joseph I. "Joe" Lieberman (I-CT) 11.42%
 
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The Hoover 1932 victory map.
genusmap.php

Herbert Hoover/Charles Curtis-Republican: 272 EV 48.65%
Franklin Roosevelt/John Nance Garner-Democratic: 259 EV 48.41%
 
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