Pennsylvania's history in recent decades had been dominated by the Labor party in general and the Casey family in particular, with Bob Casey Sr being premier from 1984 to 1996, and Bob Casey Jr from 2001 to 2016. The long history of the Labor party was ensconced in the lore of the state's politics, and Pennsylvania's labor unions were capable actors in the political arena. Under Pennsylvania's open-list proportional representation system, organization was particularly useful, and they usually outorganized their opponents. Labor also was particularly effective in firming up the safety net (Casey Sr himself said there was no shame in being on welfare), and they were popularly identified with 'Caseycare'. Caseycare, formally known as the Pennsylvania Health Act, was the healthcare reform passed by Bob Casey Sr in 1987. Among other things, it established co-pay systems to help poor people better afford healthcare, gave people below the poverty line healthcare free at point of use, and established a state-owned corporation that directly provided insurance to all willing people who were below the median household income in the state. However, Conservatives charged that his welfare policies encouraged laziness and harmed work, and they were aghast at his minimum wage increases especially. A sickly Casey Sr was eventually forced to retire in 1996 due to bad health, and his uncharismatic successor, Tom Caltagirone, lost office to a Liberal-Conservative coalition five months later, in the July 8, 1996 general election. The new government cast itself as a deliverer of reform, turning a page on the Casey legacy and reducing the room the state took over.
Under Liberal Barbara Hafer, the first female Premier in the state's history, they set out to cut out what was unnecessary from Bob Casey Sr's long list of enacted policy. Despite some initial euphoria stemming from the fact that for the first time ever a woman had become premier and that the new government presented the prospect of change from years of Labor government, reality slowly set in that the beloved portions of the Casey legacy were being dismantled slowly, piece by piece. The Liberal party itself was being somewhat internally divided and riven by interal conflict, and bad blood set in between the Liberals and Conservatives. It became clear, by 1999, that the only thing keeping the government together was the fact that Labor would easily win any election called prematurely. Fear of Labor kept the government together. Unfortunately for the government, this only made things worse in some respects, and the parties were trading their reputations in for more time in government. The election was held off until the last possible minute. By then, a lot of reform had happened, but said reforms were far from completely welcomed by the population. Moreover, Labor's victory in the next election was a certainty. Bob Casey Sr dying in 2000 only cemented Labor's position, as it reminded voters of his transformative changes to the state. His son giving the eulogy at his funeral was later said by Hafer, in her memoirs titled
The Trailblazer Reformer, to have marked for sure the end of her government, as it vaulted him into the rank of premier-in-waiting. Hitherto largely unknown, he gave a hearty and impassioned speech praising his father, at once setting highly positive views of him in the broader electorate.
The 2001 general election, which took place on October 21, was a landslide win for Labor. Labor won an absolute majority of 141 of 250 seats, which was 56% of the chamber, and won 51% of the total vote. Half the cabinet went down in defeat and found themselves ejected from parliament - some of them due to ranked choice voting in the single member districts. The Liberals were especially harmed, losing about half of their seats. The pendulum swung back again, and Bob Casey Jr, then only 41, began his prolific career as premier of the state. His youth was matched only by his popularity, and he too got euphoria. 'Caseymania' continued for many years, as state Labor rode the economic boom and invested hitherto unimaginable sums in helping rural Pennsylvania. In 2005, the Labor government was returned for another term, with a slim majority of 129 of 250 seats. Bob Casey Jr was a highly effective leader, and he reversed about four-fifths of the reforms enacted by the Hafer government. He called a new election in 2008, seeking to get ahead of economic uncertainty, this time slipping to a mere minority. He was forced into a minority government dependent on Green and Liberal support. This was not to last. Mild austerity measures pushed by the government were unpopular with the Greens, and the Liberals disliked his favoritism to rural Pennsylvania in his approach to the economy. The government lost a confidence vote in October 21, 2010, forcing a new election.
Contrary to popular wisdom, Casey actually gained seats. Burning bridges with the Liberals in the campaign, Casey claimed that if Liberal leader Allyson Schwartz became Premier, then the Hafer government would be revived. It was a very harsh and nasty campaign both from the government and the opposition. Schwartz was made into a punching bag by the Labor campaign. When serving as Minister of Healthcare, she tweaked regulations to make abortions free for everyone, in what was a hugely controversial move (previously, Casey had banned elective abortion in the state, in what had been an equally controversial move). She also made disdainful remarks about those who were unemployed, which Labor willfully placed out of context. In any case, the baggage of the Hafer government was fatal to the opposition in 2010, as both Schwartz and Conservative leader Rick Santorum had served as ministers in the Hafer government, and Casey severely humbled the Liberals. It was the worst election for the Liberal party since 2001. Schwartz resigned as leader on election night, and Labor came within a few seats of a majority. The Greens promptly agreed to back Labor on all confidence and supply measures, in a deliberate and very public snubbing of the Liberals. Casey would go on to please them over the coruse of the next parliament with large amounts of stimulus, and he had a good working relationship with Elizabeth Fiedler, the newly elected Green Party leader, despite their differences on things like abortion. Casey's government raised the statewide minimum wage yet again, to $12 an hour, and passed a law protecting individual say in data usage in late 2014. He also continued to spend money on rural broadband, which was a stable of his government's program ever since he was elected.
Casey's final election was in 2015, when he stood for a record fifth term. Still licking their wounds from 2010, the opposition staged a comeback, but still lacked more seats than Labor and the Greens put together. The campaign was largely sedate and was relatively positive. The Conservatives called the Labor party 'tired and outdated', and the Liberals campaigned on abortion. But the outcome was never in doubt. On March 18, 2015, Casey was returned to power, losing around half a dozen seats, while the Greens had their best election yet, stopping the Liberals from having the balance of power. The issue of shale drilling was a major matter though. Labor supported it because of rural jobs it would provide and the fact it would lower utility bills, while the Greens were very much opposed. But the Greens weren't entirely environmentally focused - they were the most left-wing party in the state, and Labor still ticked more boxes for them, as Labor's old-school but still clearly fairly-left-leaning policy got many of the Greens' goals accomplished. Also, Labor had introduced a carbon tax, to raise money. The proceeds were given to poor people regardless of race or residency. Labor skillfully kept the Greens onside as means of avoiding a need to cater to the Liberals or the Conservatives. Labor remained powerful and dominant, and this was little altered by Casey finally retiring in 2016, passing the torch to his confidante, Chris Sainato. As protege of the highly respected Casey, Sainato had all the skills needed to keep things working. Though the Greens did not once hold a Cabinet position, they had renewed their confidence-and-supply agreement twice, and had been consulted in policy.
Meanwhile, the Liberals had undertook a left turn and gone from centrist to center-left, in hopes of escaping attacks relating to the Hafer government. They also elected a fresh new leader in 2018 - Brendan Boyle. Boyle rejected the Hafer government and said that times have changed. The Liberals did very well in polling, subsequently, helped in part by their socially liberal platform, which called for legalizing elective abortions once again, and making it free for everyone. The Conservatives also elected a new leader - Scott Wagner. Wagner was an outsider, completely unrelated to the Hafer government, and at first he too won popular acclaim, but his hard-nosed approach took a toll on his image, and he grew steadily disliked among the population. When election time finally was reached, and the writs were dropped, Labor felt cautiously optimistic, hoping for another term in government. The Conservatives made real gains during the campaign as scandals accumulated during Labor's long tenure in office continued to hit the headlines, but Wagner grew highly unpopular and was unable to profit as much as he would have liked. This vaulted the Liberals, as Labor's image was hit by scandals and the Conservatives by their weak leader. The Liberals' being more left-leaning was a mixed bag. On one hand it kept them from getting more votes from the Conservatives, which helped the Conservatives ultimately. On the other, they were a safe option for usually Labor voters unhappy with the corruption. Labor as such was not in a good position, and this was reflected in both public polling and internals. It suddenly seemed as though many years of Labor government were set to end.
As a result of all these ills, Labor was briefly in third, but staged a strong comeback later on in the campaign, as a barrage of ads hit the state's airwaves. Labor's well-oiled operation reminded voters of what Labor had done in government, and said they were the only party that could be really trusted with protecting the Casey legacy. Bob Casey Jr, still personally popular, made campaign appearances and showed up at rallies with Labor faithful. By March 10, Labor was again in pole position, Nothing shifted much in the last few days, as Labor regained lost turf, but Boyle's status as a gifted campaigner aided him immensely. The Conservatives meanwhile ran a very negative campaign aimed squarely at Labor. Wagner blasted Labor for corruption, for pork-barreling (Lawrence County had gained unusual amounts of government investment since Sainato became Premier), and for having composed of allegedly "old, tired, and unimaginative men". Sainato was 60, ironically, he was younger than Wagner, who was 64. But that didn't stop Wagner, who highlighted young candidates and accused Labor of not caring for hard work. Wagner, owner of a waste disposal company, sought to cast Labor's leader as never having had a "real job" (Sainato had spent his whole career in elected office and as a career politician), while Wagner had worked hard to operate his trash company. He himself took part in taking the trash, as means of exercise, and he tried to look like a strong and vigorous leader. But his style rubbed many off the wrong way, and the Conservatives sagged in polls. The best that could be said though was that they were easily holding on their core vote.
On election day, Labor again won a plurality, just as they had done in a long string of elections prior. But the Liberals finished with enough seats to form a government with the Conservatives. That is, if the Conservatives were interested. Under Wagner, purity mattered more than it used to, and things were more difficult with the Liberals than they were formerly. The Liberals were still willing to form a coalition in theory though. On this understanding, the Libs and Cons worked to defeat any prospect for Labor to get a chance. Sainato, seeing the way things were blowing, conceded. Now, in the open, the differences between the two were in full display. Boyle campaigned as a socially permissive left-liberal, while Wagner campaigned as a conservative reformer in center-right outsider cloth. Reconciling these two things was difficult, and Boyle was wary of tanking his PR by agreeing to from a center-right-policy-enacting coalition. Wagner, meanwhile, had a better hand, twice as much seats, and had come between a mere twenty seats of Labor. After 2 weeks, talks broke down, and it was ultimately accepted that the Conservatives and Liberals would be unable to form a government together in coalition like they had done in 1996. This left only one other non-Labor government option - Liberal government with Conservative outside support. But Boyle personally refused this, thinking it would be unstable and that he'd be in too much debt to the Conservatives. As such this option was quickly dismissed. Boyle, with great reluctance, turned to Labor, and coalition talks commenced. It became clear just how little political capital the Liberals had, so Labor had a considerable amount of bargaining power. Labor did agree to free birth control for those under the poverty line, but it wouldn't budge on abortion. The Liberals had no means of forcing them to - in a new election, the Liberals would quite likely lack the balance of power on the floor, and as such this had to be avoided. The Liberals did secure an end to rent control in the ultimate coalition agreement, and they won a fair amount of concessions, but the overall feel of the agreement was much more Labor than Liberal. Sainato would finally finalize a coalition agreement on May 11, and two days later a government was swore in, with 18 Labor and 7 Liberal ministers.
Party ideologies and bases:
Labor: old-school Pennsylvania Democrats and minorities. Also gets a fair amount of votes from elsewhere due to its status as a party of power with deft leaders. Center-left to left-wing.
Liberal: Socially progressive white people in Southeast Pennsylvania and Allegheny County. Also college towns. Center to center-left.
Conservative: center-right rural folk, very economically conservative types in cities, and the vast majority of working class people who don't favor or like Labor, as well as exurban people in metro Pittsburgh. Center-right to right-wing.
Greens: they are "watermelons", green on the outside red on the inside. Their vote is very concentrated in the cities. They are almost as socially progressive as the Liberals, but have many very left-wing sorts. Left-wing to far-left.