Alternate Electoral Maps III


Compared and contrasted each of their performances in their retrospective elections, surprisingly Wallace got Alaska Indiana and Maryland.
Bingo. I tried to make a map of how the election would have looked if the final Gallup poll had actually got it right. Basically, I calculated a new popular vote that roughly matched the poll, then calculated new state totals by taking the number of votes the candidates got in each state and multiplying them by the percentage of the candidate's votes they got in that state. Probably been done before, but I think it's more realistic than a uniform swing. Final EC tally is Dewey: 320, Truman: 172, Thurmond: 39. Here's a percentage map
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After Ford won re-election in 1976, his vp Bob Dole became the Republican nominee in 1980 and was headed up against Massachusetts Senator and New England political royalty Ted Kennedy. Still scorned from 4 years previously Reagan supporters come out in droves after the Republican Convention and open up a write-in campaign to deliver Reagan the White House no matter how ambitious the task may be it's mostly successful. On election night Bob Dole wins by a landslide holding onto Republican strongholds while the Democrats abandon the southern strategy forever. Reagan although never truly accepting the write-in campaign as his still is gracious after receiving 7 million votes, becoming the most successful write-in campaign in history.
Here's a particularly out-there one: the 1854 House election as a presidential election.

Whig: 87 EVs
Democratic: 80 EVs
American/Know-Nothing: 63 EVs
People's/Anti-Nebraska: 36 EVs
Republican: 30 EVs

There's a certain irony to the soon-to-collapse Whigs winning a plurality while the Republicans come last in the Electoral College (if you count the 36 EVs for the People's and Anti-Nebraska parties together).
Why are the Republican and Democratic colors switched? It's confusing to Americans who are used to seeing red as Republican, and it's confusing to the rest of the world who are used to seeing red as left-wing.


Why are the Republican and Democratic colors switched? It's confusing to Americans who are used to seeing red as Republican, and it's confusing to the rest of the world who are used to seeing red as left-wing.
Some, most notably uselectionatlas continue to use this scheme that is the opposite of what the major media corporations use.
I have a challenge for you all:

Create an ASB timeline/election map where Hitler and Stalin's families both emigrate to the US and both of them get into politics. The 1936 election is between Hitler as the Republican and Stalin as the Democrat
Do you guys think this electoral map makes sense for a narrow Goldwater victory in '64?


Barry Goldwater/William Scranton 271 EV
John F. Kennedy/Terry Sanford 190 EV
George Wallace/Walter S. Baring Jr. 77 EV

LBJ is unceremoniously dropped from the ticket due to Bobby Baker, Goldwater votes for a weaker CRA which allows Wallace to sweep the South after a shocking performance in the Democratic primaries, Kennedy has some scandals which cause his approval ratings to plummet, and vote splitting by Wallace enables plurality wins for Goldwater in states like Missouri, Maryland and Ohio.
It just dawned on me that my Shanghai post kinda implied there was another election due this March in TTL, so I figured I should actually get round to making it!


As mentioned in the summary of the 2015 Shanghai City Council election, incumbent Kuomintang Mayor Han Zheng narrowly won re-election in 2015 only to be faced with a City Council united against him, and the city’s residents quickly started siding with them much more readily than the Mayor due to their standing against his unpopular austerity measures. His Progressive rival Mao Hengfeng, who had lost to him by a tight margin in the previous election, also contributed to this by providing a popular figurehead for his opponents to rally around, particularly with the allegations of voting irregularities in the instant runoff in 2015.

By 2021, Han was in dire straits as he headed into his third re-election campaign; not only was he loathed by the city’s left, but he had also alienated the centre with his year-long postponement of the election to March 2021 being seen as a power grab and the right by imposing protectionism and emergency restrictions on immigration that alienated the Keswick family and other non-Chinese Shanghai businessmen and residents from him.

In order to try and save his campaign Han sought to make the City Council election a referendum on new Progressive President Jiang Jielian. Unfortunately for Han, Jiang was very popular with the Shanghai left, and most anti-Progressive voters saw supporting the Kuomintang for the City Council as wasting their votes and hated the idea of three more years of Han far more than giving Mao a shot.

Mao won by the biggest landslide for a mayoral candidate in Shanghai since Zhu Rongji won 63.2% of the vote in the runoff for the 1990 mayoral election and became the first woman elected Mayor of Shanghai. In the first round she led Han by almost 25 points, and in the runoff took 58.6% of the vote to just 41.4% for Han. Even Hongkou voted for Mao out of anger at Han’s economic policies during Covid.

With Mao’s coattails, it was suspected the Progressives could break out of their downtown core and win more seats in the traditionally pro-Kuomintang outer districts- and break out they did. While the election was not their first victory in a City Council election, it is by far the biggest they have achieved so far. For the first time ever, Chongming, Fengxian and Qingpu Districts gave pluralities to the Progressives, and they scored their strongest ever victories in every other district they won.

As one might expect from a PR election, the Progressives were unable to win an overall majority, coming 5 short of one at 66 seats, but combined with their allies in the Green and Communist parties (which gained 5 seats between them) the governing coalition is just shy of a two-thirds majority on the City Council. Meanwhile, the Loyalists, the only party besides the Kuomintang to speak in favour of Han’s Covid measures, were decimated, taking less than 1% of the vote and losing all their seats.

The Kuomintang, meanwhile, lost nearly 10% of its 2015 vote and nearly half its seats, tumbling to 27 out of 140 seats, by far their worst ever result, and losing every single seat they had held in Downtown Shanghai. They only managed to weather the storm to any significant degree in deep blue Jinshan and Songjiang districts, the only two which voted to re-elect Han in the Mayoral election runoff. National Kuomintang leaders like Congress Chair Wang Jianlin have tried to assert that the loss was mostly a personal vote against Han and on a national level the party remains popular.

The Economic Liberals, with a strong campaign funded by the Keswick family, increased their vote significantly, but only took two more seats. Even so, some have suggested if the rift between the rich in Shanghai and the Kuomintang is not healed the Economic Liberals might be able to supersede them as the main party of the city’s right.

In terms of its impact on the national situation, not only were Mao and the Progressives’ victories hailed by the party as a second mandate for President Jiang, they may have a major impact on electoral politics on the national level, as the Cabinet has submitted a recommendation to the Chinese Electoral Commission for the implementation of proportional representation for elections to the National Congress. The Commission is set to report its findings at the beginning of July, though the smart money is on the introduction of a mixed-member proportional system akin to those of Korea and Japan rather than full PR.


Chinese provincial/city council election maps
Inner Mongolia
Xinjiang/East Turkestan referendum
Shanghai (2015)
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